Ring Of Fire

ECMWF Ensemble Mean and GFS Ensemble Mean continue to signal strong ridging building back in to start the week.

For the Dakotas, highs of 90+ degrees should be common each day from Saturday through at least Tuesday, with the peak heat likely to occur on Monday.

Triple digits possible again Sunday and Monday from the Bismarck-Mobridge-Pierre area. For those days, 850mb temps are forecast to reach +24C on the 00z ensemble runs of the ECMWF and GFS. Operational runs have 850mb temps of +26C and +28C, respectively, for those models. As a comparison, the evening BIS sounding on Tuesday indicated an 850mb temp of +25.6C - a day in which their surface high temperature was 102F (20130821_00z BIS Sounding Tabular Data).

There is disagreement as to whether the ridge flattens a bit around the middle to late next week. Even if that happens though, it looks like we will just go from hot (highs in the 90s) to seasonably warm (highs in the 80s). However, if the operational GFS is correct, the ridge reloads and is potentially even stronger to close the week. It should be noted, that the more reliable medium range option - the ECMWF Ensemble mean - has a flattened ridge to close the work week, but then it too builds in a stronger ridge for next weekend, albeit a couple days later than the operational GFS.

It is ironic I have returned to blogging by mentioning another opportunity for triple digit heat in Bismarck, when my last post in April, detailed their 23.5" snowstorm. I'm looking forward to blogging again, with my next post likely examining whether this heat verifies to start the week, and re-investigate how much and how long the ridge flattens to close the week.

April 14-15 Snowstorm Live Blog

I will try to update this as often as possible tonight until I go to sleep.

11:30am - Well I see I didn't miss much while I was sleeping. Snowstorm total of about 4" here in Grand Forks. Less than impressive, that's for sure. As usual, we were the exception to the norm. Here is a select list of snow totals from this storm:

• Bismarck (Burleigh Co.), ND - 23.5"
• LaMoure (Edgeley Co.), ND - 20.0"
• 4NW Hazelton (Emmons Co.), ND - 18.7"
• Selfridge (Sioux Co.), ND - 18.0"
• Glen Ullin (Morton Co.), ND - 18"
• Bismarck NWS (Burleigh Co.), ND - 17.7"
• Jamestown (Stutsman Co.), ND - 17.0"
• 3SW Dickinson (Stark Co.) - 16.0"
• Garrison (McLean Co.), ND - 14.0"
• Harvey (Wells Co.), ND - 12.0"
• Minot (Ward Co.), ND - 11.0"
• Fargo (Cass Co.), ND - 10.8"
• Park River (Walsh Co.), MN - 10.0"
• McLeod (Ransom Co.), ND - 9.8"
• Larimore (Grand Forks Co.), ND - 9.0"
• Lidgerwood (Richland Co.), ND - 9.0"
• Moorhead (Clay Co.), MN - 8.8"
• Carrington (Foster, Co.), ND - 8.0"
• Michigan (Nelson Co.), ND - 8.0"
• 6NE Hatton (Grand Forks Co.), ND - 7.0"
• Wahpeton (Richland Co.), ND - 7.0"
• East Grand Forks (Polk Co.), MN - 5.5"
• Fergus Falls (Otter Tail Co.), MN - 4.5"
• Grand Forks NWS (Grand Forks Co.), ND - 3.6"
• Bemidji (Beltrami Co.), MN - 2.5"
• Pembina (Pembina Co.), ND - 2.5"

3:12am - 3 ¹/₄" outside. Last measurement of the night....bedtime.

12:55am - About 2" of snow accumulation now. More snow pellets than snow flakes falling now. If my 6.5" prediction comes true, I guess it will be a slow accumulation through the night. I will try to take one more measurement at 3am.

10:10pm - 1" of accumulation out there. Snow intensity has decreased to light snow. Roads are slushy and snow is melting from the trees with a temperature of 33°F. Going to be hard to accumulate when there isn't a period of heavy snow.

9:17pm - Heavy snow here in Grand Forks the past 30-40 minutes. Globs of wet snow fell on my car during my short drive home from work. This is the closest to a Mid-Atlantic snowfall that I've seen here. I would estimate the snow to liquid ratio is at best 10:1, more likely 9:1 though. Estimated snowfall of 0.5"

8:13pm - Dusting of snow on the rooftops and vegetation. Pavements are taking a while to cool down still and remain wet, but the edges and cracks of the parking lot are starting to see a thin dusting of accumulation.

6:30pm - All snow here now on the north end of Grand Forks. Later than I expected yesterday, that's for sure. Future updates will generally be accumulation updates.

6:25pm - In-situ wet bulbing...GFK was 38/28 when DZ began, now at 34/30 with -RASN.

6:08pm - Had an occasional snowflake mixing in earlier, now a rain/snow mix. It won't be long now before it's all snow.

6:04pm - Light rain here on the north side of town for the past half hour, after about a half hour of drizzle. I hear it's snowing on the south side of town though. I guess the high of 39 and extremely slow northward progression through the Red River Valley is playing a major role. Based on radar echo, rain should change to snow any minute now.

March 2013 Climate Summary

Notes:

• Temperature data from the airport (GFK) and precipitation data from the University. 
• ##^R denotes record maximum
• ##_R denotes record minimum

Grand Forks, ND (GFK)

Day	High	Low	Dep.	Precip.	Snow	Depth
1	25	4	-3	0.00”	0.0”	4”
2	24	3	-4	Trace	Trace	4”
3	31	13	+4	Trace	0.1”	4”
4	27	24	+7	0.27”	7.0”	6”
5	25	18	+3	0.03”	0.5”	10”
6	25	1	-7	Trace	0.1"	10"
7	27	-5	-9	0.00"	0.0"	10"
8	32	18	+4	0.00"	0.0"	10"
9	29	22	+5	Trace	Trace	9"
10	23	-1	-11	Trace	Trace	9"
11	22	1	-10	Trace	Trace	9"
12	22	0	-12	0.01"	0.2"	9"
13	21	-11	-18	0.09"	2.2"	9"
14	28	6	-7	0.01"	0.3"	11"
15	20	-1	-14	0.14"	4.2"	10"
16	10	-18R	-29	0.00"	0.0"	13"
17	20	-23R	-27	0.11"	3.2"	12"
18	23	3	-13	0.06"	1.4"	14"
19	15	-7	-23	0.00"	0.0"	14"
20	15	-7	-23	0.00"	0.0"	14"
21	16	-13R	-26	0.00"	0.0"	12"
22	19	-10	-23	0.00"	0.0"	12"
23	26	5	-13	0.00"	0.0"	11"
24	25	19	-7	Trace	Trace	11"
25	26	5	-14	Trace	Trace	11"
26	28	-2	-17	0.00"	0.0"	11"
27	30	-3	-17	0.00"	0.0"	11"
28	37	6	-10	0.00"	0.0"	11"
29	31	21	-6	Trace	0.0"	10"
30	39	26	0	Trace	Trace	9"
31	32	15	-9	Trace	Trace	7"
March 2013	24.9	3.5	-11.0R	0.72”	19.2”	Avg. 9.9"

Average High: 24.9°F [Departure from Normal: -9.3°F]
Average Low: 3.5°F [Departure from Normal: -12.6°F]
Mean Temperature: 14.2°F_R [Departure From Normal: -11.0°F]
Total Precipitation: 0.72" [Departure from Normal: -0.30"; 71% of normal]
Total Snowfall: 19.2" [Departure from Normal: +12.8"; 300% of normal]
Seasonal Snowfall: 52.8" [Departure from Normal: +10.0"; 123% of normal]

2013 MLB Predictions

One of the greatest days of the year has arrived once again - OPENING DAY! Not every year, but most years since high school I have made baseball predictions at the beginning of the season. More often than not, they stink - but it's still fun to do. This year, I attempted to incorporate a bit more research than usual, so who knows if these are better or worse than usual, but here goes nothing:

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Tampa Bay Rays	91-71	- -
Baltimore Orioles	85-77	-6
Toronto Blue Jays	84-78	-7
New York Yankees	82-80	-9
Boston Red Sox	75-87	-16
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Detroit Tigers	93-69	- -
Kansas City Royals	82-80	-11
Cleveland Indians	79-83	-14
Chicago White Sox	76-86	-17
Minnesota Twins	67-95	-26
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Oakland Athletics	92-70	- -
Los Angeles Angels	91-71	-1
Texas Rangers	84-78	-8
Seattle Mariners	75-87	-17
Houston Astros	58-104	-34
AMERICAN LEAGUE WILDCARD
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Los Angeles Angels	91-71	- -
Baltimore Orioles	85-77	- -
Toronto Blue Jays	84-78	-1
Texas Rangers	84-78	-1
Kansas City Royals	82-80	-3
New York Yankees	82-80	-3
Cleveland Indians	79-83	-12
Chicago White Sox	76-86	-15
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Washington Nationals	102-60	- -
Philadelphia Phillies	90-72	-12
Atlanta Braves	88-74	-14
New York Mets	71-91	-31
Miami Marlins	60-102	-42
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Cincinnati Reds	87-75	- -
St. Louis Cardinals	86-76	-1
Milwaukee Brewers	84-78	-3
Pittsburgh Pirates	81-81	-6
Chicago Cubs	69-93	-18
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
TEAM	RECORD	GB
San Francisco Giants	90-72	- -
Los Angeles Dodgers	89-73	-1
Arizona Diamondbacks	85-77	-5
San Diego Padres	74-88	-16
Colorado Rockies	59-103	-31
NATIONAL LEAGUE WILDCARD
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Philadelphia Phillies	90-72	- -
Los Angeles Dodgers	89-73	- -
Atlanta Braves	88-74	-1
St. Louis Cardinals	86-76	-3
Arizona Diamondbacks	85-77	-4
Milwaukee Brewers	84-78	-5
Pittsburgh Pirates	81-81	-8
San Diego Padres	74-88	-15

 -------------

AL WILDCARD

4-Los Angeles Angels over Baltimore Orioles

NL WILDCARD

5-Los Angeles Dodgers over Philadelphia Phillies

ALDS

1-Detroit Tigers over 4-Los Angeles Angels

3-Tampa Bay Rays over 2-Oakland Athletics

NLDS

1-Washington Nationals over 5-Los Angeles Dodgers

2-San Francisco Giants over 3-Cincinnati Reds

ALCS

1-Detroit Tigers over 3-Tampa Bay Rays

NLCS

1-Washington Nationals over 2-San Francisco Giants

WORLD SERIES

Washington Nationals over Detroit Tigers

------------- 

MVP

AL: Miguel Cabrera (3B - Detroit Tigers)

NL: Joey Votto (1B - Cincinnati Reds)

CY YOUNG

AL: Justin Verlander (SP - Detroit Tigers)

NL: Clayton Kershaw (SP - Los Angeles Dodgers)

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

AL: Wil Myers (OF - Tampa Bay Rays)

NL: Adam Eaton (OF - Arizona Diamondbacks)

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

AL: Brian Roberts (2B - Baltimore Orioles)

NL: Ryan Howard (1B - Philadelphia Phillies)

MANAGER OF THE YEAR

AL: Buck Showalter (Baltimore Orioles)

NL: Davey Johnson (Washington Nationals)

2012-13 NCAA Basketball Rankings - Vol. X

There are still four conference championships left, but with today being Selection Sunday, here are my rankings through games played on Saturday, March 16th:

 

Rank	Last	Team	Record	Conference
1	1	Gonzaga	(31-2, 16-0)	West Coast
2	4	Louisville	(29-5, 14-4)	Big East
3	2	Indiana	(27-6, 14-4)	B1G
4	5	Kansas	(29-5, 14-4)	Big 12
5	7	Florida	(26-6, 14-4)	SEC
6	9	Miami	(26-6, 15-3)	ACC
7	6	Duke	(27-5, 14-4)	ACC
8	13	Ohio St.	(25-7, 13-5)	B1G
9	3	Georgetown	(25-6, 14-4)	Big East
10	12	New Mexico	(29-5, 13-3)	Mountain West
11	16	Wisconsin	(23-10, 12-6)	B1G
12	10	Michigan St.	(25-8, 13-5)	B1G
13	8	Oklahoma St.	(24-8, 13-5)	Big 12
14	11	Michigan	(26-7, 12-6)	B1G
15	15	Saint Louis	(26-6, 13-3)	Atlantic 10
16	20	Syracuse	(26-9, 11-7)	Big East
17	19	Kansas St.	(27-7, 14-4)	Big 12
18	18	VCU	(26-7, 12-4)	Atlantic 10
19	14	Marquette	(23-8, 14-4)	Big East
20	29	Memphis	(30-4, 16-0)	Conference-USA
21	17	Pitt	(24-8, 12-6)	Big East
22	24	Notre Dame	(25-9, 11-7)	Big East
23	28	Creighton	(27-7, 13-5)	Missouri Valley
24	26	UNLV	(24-9, 10-6)	Mountain West
25	32	Oregon	(26-8, 12-6)	PAC-12
26	30	Butler	(26-8, 11-5)	Atlantic 10
27	21	St. Mary's	(27-6, 14-2)	West Coast
28	25	Colorado St.	(25-8, 11-5)	Mountain West
29	34	North Carolina	(24-9, 12-6)	ACC
30	23	UCLA	(24-9, 13-5)	PAC-12
31	27	Arizona	(25-7, 12-6)	PAC-12
32	22	Minnesota	(20-12, 8-10)	B1G
33	39	Iowa St.	(22-11, 11-7)	Big 12
34	45	NC State	(24-10, 11-7)	ACC
35	31	San Diego St.	(22-10, 9-7)	Mountain West
36	33	Illinois	(22-12, 8-10)	B1G
37	38	Cincinnati	(21-11, 9-9)	Big East
38	40	Boise St.	(21-10, 9-7)	Mountain West
39	42	Wichita St.	(26-8, 12-6)	Missouri Valley
40	37	Missouri	(23-10, 11-7)	SEC
41	36	Virginia	(21-11, 11-7)	ACC
42	N/A	Belmont	(26-6, 14-2)	Ohio Valley
43	35	Oklahoma	(20-11, 11-7)	Big 12
44	N/A	Mississippi	(25-8, 12-6)	SEC
45	50	Villanova	(20-13, 10-8)	Big East
46	N/A	Temple	(23-9, 11-5)	Atlantic 10
47	46	Colorado	(21-11, 10-8)	PAC-12
48	N/A	Iowa	(21-12, 9-9)	B1G
49	48	La Salle	(21-9, 11-5)	Atlantic 10
50	N/A	Maryland	(22-12, 8-10)	ACC

Dropped From Rankings: #41 Cal, #43 Middle Tennessee St., #44 UConn, #47 Louisiana Tech, #49 Kentucky

Teams Rising:

• +11 NC State (24-10, 11-7)
• +9 Memphis (30-4, 16-0)
• +9 Belmont (26-6, 14-2)
• +7 Oregon (26-8, 12-6)
• +7 Mississippi (25-8, 12-6)

Teams Falling:

• -10 Minnesota (20-12, 8-10)
• -10 Cal (20-11, 12-6)
• -8 Oklahoma (20-11, 11-7)
• -8 Middle Tennessee St. (28-5, 19-1)
• -7 UCLA (24-9, 13-5)

Of the 68 NCAA Tournament teams, there are 37 at-large bids. This week, I consider teams in the Top 40 as 'Locks'. Of those teams, 11 are conference leaders/winners and 29 are at-large locks. The next 16 at-large teams (excluding ineligible UConn) are in my opinion bubble teams (First 8 in, next 8 out).

• Bubble Teams IN: Virginia, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Villanova, Temple, Colorado, Iowa, La Salle
• Bubble Teams OUT: Maryland, Alabama, Tennessee, Middle Tennessee St., Kentucky, Cal, Baylor, Southern Miss
• Below the Bubble NIT Teams: Massachusetts, Arizona St., Stanford, Ohio, Louisiana Tech, Arkansas, Xavier, Denver

-------------

Projected Seeds

16 (First Four) -  Liberty, North Carolina A&T, Southern, James Madison

16 - LIU-Brooklyn, Albany

15 - Pacific, Western Kentucky, Florida Gulf Coast, Northwestern St.

14 - Harvard, Iona, New Mexico St., South Dakota St.

13 - Valparaiso, Montana, Bucknell, Davidson

12 (First Four) - La Salle, Iowa, Colorado, Temple

12 - Villanova, Akron

11 - Mississippi, Oklahoma, Belmont, Virginia

10 - Missouri, Wichita St., Boise St., Cincinnati

9 - Illinois, San Diego St., NC State, Iowa St.

8 - Minnesota, Arizona, UCLA, North Carolina

7 - Colorado St., St. Mary's, Butler, Oregon

6 - UNLV, Creighton, Notre Dame, Pitt

5 - Memphis, Marquette, VCU, Kansas St.

4 - Syracuse, Saint Louis, Michigan, Oklahoma St.

3 - Michigan St., Wisconsin, New Mexico, Georgetown

2 - Ohio St., Duke, Miami, Florida

1 - Kansas, Indiana, Louisville, Gonzaga

February 2013 Climate Data

Notes:

• Temperature data from the airport (GFK) and precipitation data from the University. 
• ##^R denotes record maximum
• ##_R denotes record minimum

Grand Forks, ND (GFK)

Day	High	Low	Dep.	Precip.	Snow	Depth
1	-2	-19	-18	Trace	Trace	2”
2	7	-12	-10	0.01”	0.5”	2”
3	6	-8	-9	0.00”	0.0”	3”
4	29	1	+6	0.10”	2.6”	3”
5	27	0	+5	0.00”	0.0”	4”
6	19	9	+5	0.09”	1.4”	4”
7	11	-3	-5	0.00"	0.0"	5"
8	25	10	+8	Trace	0.0"	5"
9	30	21	+16	0.00"	0.0"	4"
10	29	22	+16	0.13"	4.8"	4"
11	24	13	+8	Trace	0.1"	7"
12	33	12	+12	0.00"	0.0"	7"
13	28	12	+9	0.00"	0.0"	6"
14	21	2	0	0.00"	0.0"	6"
15	17	-6	-6	0.00"	0.0"	6"
16	16	-5	-6	Trace	Trace	6"
17	29	15	+9	0.02"	0.2"	6"
18	26	-6	-3	0.09"	4.2"	8"
19	-5	-15	-23	0.00"	0.0"	7"
20	3	-18	-21	0.00"	0.0"	7"
21	17	-4	-7	0.00"	0.0"	7"
22	17	0	-5	0.00"	0.0"	6"
23	19	4	-3	0.00"	0.0"	6"
24	24	3	-1	Trace	0.2"	5"
25	28	3	0	0.00"	0.0"	5"
26	20	8	-2	Trace	Trace	5"
27	28	8	+1	0.00"	0.0"	5"
28	25	7	-1	0.00"	0.0"	4"
Feb 2013	19.7	1.9	-1.2	0.44”	14.0”	Avg. 5.1"

Average High: 19.7°F [Departure from Normal: -2.2°F]
Average Low: 1.9°F [Departure from Normal: -0.2°F]
Mean Temperature: 10.8°F [Departure From Normal: -1.2°F]
Total Precipitation: 0.44" [Departure from Normal: -0.15"; 75% of normal]
Total Snowfall: 14.0" [Departure from Normal: +7.1"; 203% of normal]
Seasonal Snowfall: 33.6" [Departure from Normal: -9.2"; 79% of normal]