Early October Snow

On Thursday 10/4, we received our first snow of the year. I woke up that morning around 8:30am to see about 2.5" of very slushy snow on the ground, with snow still falling. The official snowfall for the day was 3.5" at the University. This smashed my previous personal mark of earliest snowfall (Trace - 11/9) by 35 days, and earliest measurable snowfall (1.1" - 11/15) by 41 days, both set last year here in Grand Forks. It is worth noting that this was even early for Grand Forks standards. The all-time record for earliest 1" of snowfall in Grand Forks was 10/02/1950, so this ranks as one of the earliest ever.

We have not had any snow since, but the pattern has been active until the past few days. Through the first 10 days of the month, precipitation was recorded during 6 of those days. A bit of a dry stretch has moved in for the past few days and temperatures have trended back to normal. For today and tomorrow, we have a decent chance of topping out near 65° - which may be the last time until late March or April, or if we are really unlucky, May.

2011-12 Seasonal Snowfall Comparison

Here is a final comparison of snowfall for all the locations I've lived at:

Grand Forks, ND
Seasonal Snowfall: 27.2"
Average Annual Snowfall: 42.8"
Departure from (Percentage of) Normal: -15.6" (63.6%)

Shawnee, KS (data used from KMCI)
Seasonal Snowfall: 3.9"
Average Annual Snowfall: 18.8"
Departure from (Percentage of) Normal: -14.9" (20.7%)

California, PA (data used from KPIT)
Seasonal Snowfall: 36.9"
Average Annual Snowfall: 41.9" (Note: California receives much less)
Departure from (Percentage of) Normal: --5.0" (88.1%)

Cambridge, MD
Seasonal Snowfall: 0.75"
Average Annual Snowfall: 14.1"
Departure from (Percentage of) Normal: -13.85" (5.3%)

February/March/April 2012 Climate Summaries

FEBRUARY 2012 CLIMATE SUMMARY

Day	High	Low	Dep.	Precip.	Snow
1	40	11	+18	0.00"	0.0"
2	28	12	+12	0.00"	0.0"
3	29	20	+17	0.00"	0.0"
4	35	17	+17	0.00"	0.0"
5	43	15	+20	0.00"	0.0"
6	35	9	+13	0.00"	0.0"
7	19	-1	+0	0.00"	0.0"
8	34	5	+10	0.00"	0.0"
9	26	-2	+2	0.00"	0.0"
10	4	-11	-13	0.00"	0.0"
11	12	-6	-8	0.00"	0.0"
12	30	-2	+14	0.00"	0.0"
13	36	7	+11	0.00"	0.0"
14	36	10	+10	0.00"	0.0"
15	36	22	+17	0.01"	Trace
16	36	19	+16	0.00"	0.0"
17	30	15	+10	Trace	Trace
18	39	12	+13	0.00"	0.0"
19	40	17	+16	0.00"	0.0"
20	38	28	+19	0.37"	3.7"
21	33	17	+11	0.02"	0.2"
22	25	8	+3	0.01"	0.3"
23	35	5	+5	Trace	0.1"
24	21	2	-3	Trace	0.8"
25	20	-9	-10	Trace	0.1"
26	22	12	+1	0.06"	2.1"
27	11	-2	-12	0.00"	0.0"
28	30	1	-1	0.00"	0.0"
29	27	23	+8	0.00"	Trace
Feb. 2012	29.3	8.8	+7.0	0.47"	7.3"

Average High: 29.3°F [Departure from Normal: +7.4°F] 

Average Low: 8.8°F [Departure from Normal: +6.7°F] 

Mean Temperature: 19.0°F [Departure From Normal: +7.0°F] 

Total Precipitation: 0.47" [Departure from Normal: -0.12"; 80% of normal] 

Total Snowfall: 7.3" [Departure from Normal: +0.7"; 111% of normal] 

Seasonal Snowfall: 21.0" [Departure from Normal: -14.3"; 49% of normal]

- - - - -

MARCH 2012 CLIMATE SUMMARY

Day	High	Low	Dep.	Precip.	Snow
1	31	22	+8	0.02"	0.3"
2	28	13	+2	0.08"	2.3"
3	14	0	-13	Trace	0.1"
4	20	-1	-10	0.04"	1.9"
5	33	5	-1	0.02"	0.2"
6	37	24	+10	0.00"	0.0"
7	30	15	+2	Trace	Trace
8	31	9	-2	0.08"	1.5"
9	28	3	-6	0.00"	0.0"
10	49	26	+15	0.00"	0.0"
11	57R	32	+22	0.00"	0.0"
12	56	35	+22	0.32"	0.0"
13	59R	30	+21	0.00"	0.0"
14	52	33	+18	0.00"	0.0"
15	58	32	+20	0.00"	0.0"
16	73R	37	+29	0.00"	0.0"
17	70R	40	+29	0.00"	0.0"
18	73	52	+36	0.00"	0.0"
19	74R	54	+37	0.20"	0.0"
20	57	39	+20	0.00"	0.0"
21	69R	35	+24	0.00"	0.0"
22	68	37	+24	0.03"	0.0"
23	59	54	+27	0.41"	0.0"
24	55	31	+13	0.00"	0.0"
25	39	27	+2	0.00"	0.0"
26	51	30	+10	0.00"	0.0"
27	47	33	+8	0.08"	Trace
28	44	32	+6	0.16"	0.3"
29	41	35	+5	0.49"	0.0"
30	54	38	+12	0.00"	0.0"
31	68	46	+23	0.00"	0.0"
March 2012	49.2	29.0	+9.7	1.93"	6.6"

Average High: 49.2°F [Departure from Normal: +14.6°F] 

Average Low: 29.0°F [Departure from Normal: +11.4°F] 

Mean Temperature: 39.1°F [Departure From Normal: +13.0°F] 

Total Precipitation: 1.93" [Departure from Normal: +0.91"; 189% of normal] 

Total Snowfall: 6.6" [Departure from Normal: +0.2"; 103% of normal] 

Seasonal Snowfall: 27.2" [Departure from Normal: -15.6"; 62% of normal]

- - - - -

APRIL 2012 CLIMATE SUMMARY

Day	High	Low	Dep.	Precip.	Snow
1	73	45	+25	0.00"	0.0"
2	54	39	+12	0.31"	Trace
3	60	33	+12	0.00"	0.0"
4	63	27	+9	0.00"	0.0"
5	65	30	+12	0.00"	0.0"
6	67	38	+16	0.00"	0.0"
7	55	35	+7	Trace	0.0"
8	56	30	+5	0.00"	0.0"
9	42	27	-4	Trace	Trace
10	38	22	-9	0.00"	0.0"
11	48	19	-6	0.00"	0.0"
12	68	26	+7	Trace	0.0"
13	54	46	+9	0.38"	0.0"
14	71	42	+16	Trace	0.0"
15	53	33	+1	0.00"	0.0"
16	39	24	-10	0.00"	0.0"
17	60	21	-2	0.46"	0.0"
18	54	37	+2	Trace	0.0"
19	54	37	+2	0.00"	0.0"
20	54	37	+2	0.00"	0.0"
21	53	33	-2	0.14"	0.0"
22	65	26	0	0.00"	0.0"
23	77	30	+8	0.00"	0.0"
24	76	42	+13	0.00"	0.0"
25	67	37	+5	0.00"	0.0"
26	56	25	-6	0.00"	0.0"
27	54	43	+1	0.07"	0.0"
28	59	40	+2	Trace	0.0"
29	56	42	0	0.48"	0.0"
30	69	37	+4	0.00"	0.0"
March 2012	58.7	33.4	+9.7	1.84"	Trace

Average High: 58.7°F [Departure from Normal: +4.8°F] 

Average Low: 33.4°F [Departure from Normal: +3.4°F] 

Mean Temperature: 46.1°F [Departure From Normal: +4.1°F] 

Total Precipitation: 1.84" [Departure from Normal: +0.86"; 188% of normal] 

Total Snowfall: Trace [Departure from Normal: -1.0"; 0% of normal] 

Seasonal Snowfall: 27.2" [Departure from Normal: -15.6"; 62% of normal]

Winter Already?

Today is the last day of the MLB regular season, so naturally it is time to think about an approaching snowstorm. Huh?

Yes, it appears Earth has stopped rotating as I am under a winter storm warning for 6-10" while watching the Baltimore Orioles compete for the AL East crown. After last year's atypical North Dakota winter, I admit I am not sure if I am ready for a half foot of snow on October 4th. It seems though that will be the case. After analyzing the 12z model runs, the GFS provides the least amount of QPF falling as snow - approximately 0.53". Even with a reasonable early season 'wet snow' 8:1 ratio, that is still a nice 4" for tomorrow. I am not prepared to buy the 14" that the 12z NAM was showing, but I think somewhere around 6" is doable. The 12z ECMWF had approximately 0.7" falling as snow, which at 8:1 and 10:1 ratios, would give us 5.6" to 7" of snow, respectively.

Of note is the fact that over the last 6 days, high temperatures at GFK have been 76, 80, 85, 85, 71, and 80. However, rain looks to change to snow prior to dawn at around 4am. Couple that with models showing a band of potentially moderate to heavy snow shortly thereafter, and those warm ground temperatures could be overcome.

I have my shovel ready, let's see what the morning has to offer!

Mid-Atlantic Ice Storm of 11-12 February 1994

This weekend marks the 18th anniversary of one of the worst ice storms in Mid-Atlantic history. The predominant weather pattern for the winter of 1993-94 proved to be fairly conducive for freezing rain and sleet storms. Two of note occurred on the Eastern Shore of Maryland, one in January and the other this weekend in 1994.

I particularly remember the Ice Storm of 11-12 February 1994 as it was the first, and still the only, time I witnessed 2" of ice accretion due to freezing rain and sleet. Here is an excerpt from the fantastic Maryland Winters web page, describing the winter of 1993-94 and in particular, the Ice Storm of 11-12 February 1994:

January-February, 1994  Cold and Ice: One storm seemed to come on top of another all dropping snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the state. The most devastating icestorm struck February 10-11. It left a coat of ice, one to three inches thick, from freezing rain and sleet! Meanwhile, across north-central Maryland 4 to 7 inches of sleet accumulated. By far, the hardest hit was an area was about a 50 mile wide band from near Fredericksburg, VA across southern Maryland (Charles, Calvert, St. Marys) up to Annapolis, across the Eastern Shore (Queen Annes, Caroline, and Talbot) and over Sussex and Kent Counties in Delaware. Some counties lost 10 to 20% of their trees from the heavy ice. Trees fell on homes and cars. Roads were blocked and impassable. Electric and phone lines were down with as much as 90 percent of the county's people without power. Outages and damage were so widespread that many people were without power for a week. A presidential disaster declaration was given and damages were estimated at near $100 million. There were numerous injuries from car accidents and people slipping.In Anne Arundel County alone, hospitals reported 104 weather related injuries in two days from the ice. This was likely the iciest winter Maryland has seen this century.

Great Hoarfrost of February 2012

Last week I experienced possibly the most spectacular hoarfrost event of my life. At approximately 6:30pm Thursday, 2/2/12, freezing fog developed here in Grand Forks. Fog continued until Friday afternoon when it briefly lifted for 2-3 hours. When I woke up Friday morning, the visibility was a dense 1/16 statute miles, or about 300-350 feet. A beautiful hoarfrost developed on vegetation, fences and signs. I took many pictures because I don't recall ever personally witnessing a hoarfrost of such magnitude.  Dense fog re-developed Friday evening, once again thickening to 1/8 statute miles or less. Finally on early Saturday morning, 2/4/12 the fog lifted. Sunshine had developed by mid-day and the hoarfrost melted away. Pretty substantial fog event, with approximately 33 hours of dense fog during a 36-hour stretch. Here is a sample of pictures from "The Great Hoarfrost of February 2012":

January 2012 Climate Summary

Day	High	Low	Dep.	Precip.	Snow
1	30	13	+15	Trace	0.0"
2	15	0	+1	Trace	Trace
3	41R	6	+17	0.00"	0.0"
4	38	13	+19	0.00"	0.0"
5	47R	14	+24	0.00"	0.0"
6	39	25	+25	0.01"	Trace
7	38	23	+24	0.00"	0.0"
8	38	17	+22	0.00"	0.0"
9	46	27	+31	0.00"	0.0"
10	44	29	+31	0.01"	Trace
11	35	5	+14	Trace	0.2"
12	6	-6	-6	Trace	0.5"
13	14	-10	-4	Trace	0.1"
14	32	14	+17	0.01"	0.3"
15	33	14	+18	0.00"	0.0"
16	14	-2	0	0.00"	0.0"
17	1	-10	-10	0.00"	0.0"
18	0	-16	-14	0.01"	0.5"
19	0	-17	-14	0.00"	0.0"
20	8	-12	-8	0.00"	0.0"
21	19	-11	-2	Trace	Trace
22	27	19	+17	0.03"	0.5"
23	23	3	+6	Trace	Trace
24	22	-4	+2	0.00"	0.0"
25	31	9	+13	Trace	Trace
26	38	14	+19	0.00"	0.0"
27	28	19	+17	0.16"	3.0"
28	23	6	+8	Trace	Trace
29	18	-12	-4	0.01"	0.4"
30	32	18	+17	0.01"	0.0"
31	32	17	+17	0.01"	0.0"
Jan. 2012	26.2	6.6	+9.7	0.26"	5.6"

Average High: 26.2°F [Departure from Normal: +9.7°F] 

Average Low: 6.6°F [Departure from Normal: +9.7°F] 

Mean Temperature: 16.4°F [Departure From Normal: +9.7°F] 

Total Precipitation: 0.26" [Departure from Normal: -0.29"; 47% of normal] 

Total Snowfall: 5.6" [Departure from Normal: -5.6"; 50% of normal] 

Seasonal Snowfall: 13.7" [Departure from Normal: -17.1"; 44% of normal]