Winter Already?

Today is the last day of the MLB regular season, so naturally it is time to think about an approaching snowstorm. Huh?

Yes, it appears Earth has stopped rotating as I am under a winter storm warning for 6-10" while watching the Baltimore Orioles compete for the AL East crown. After last year's atypical North Dakota winter, I admit I am not sure if I am ready for a half foot of snow on October 4th. It seems though that will be the case. After analyzing the 12z model runs, the GFS provides the least amount of QPF falling as snow - approximately 0.53". Even with a reasonable early season 'wet snow' 8:1 ratio, that is still a nice 4" for tomorrow. I am not prepared to buy the 14" that the 12z NAM was showing, but I think somewhere around 6" is doable. The 12z ECMWF had approximately 0.7" falling as snow, which at 8:1 and 10:1 ratios, would give us 5.6" to 7" of snow, respectively.

Of note is the fact that over the last 6 days, high temperatures at GFK have been 76, 80, 85, 85, 71, and 80. However, rain looks to change to snow prior to dawn at around 4am. Couple that with models showing a band of potentially moderate to heavy snow shortly thereafter, and those warm ground temperatures could be overcome.

I have my shovel ready, let's see what the morning has to offer!