10 To Go - No Surprises; Re-examining the 2013 AL Playoff Race

There is at most 10 games left in the season for all of the AL Playoff contenders, so I wanted to re-examine my previous post on the subject and see how things have changed. A few notes:

• Texas has only just recently recovered from their free fall they were in earlier this month. They began September losing 12 of their first 14 games. Playoff teams generally don't do that in September.
• After taking 3 of 4 from Baltimore and looking poised for a wildcard run, the New York Yankees have slumped, losing 5 of their last 6. Curiously strange scheduling to close the season may keep them barely in the hunt though.
• Cleveland remains hot and they have a very favorable schedule left, with series against the Astros, White Sox, and Twins. At this point I'd be shocked if they didn't make the playoffs.

And now my projections:

TEAM	LAST 30	LAST 10	OPPONENTS OPPONENTS LAST 10	RECORD vs. REMAINING OPP.	EXPECTED ADDITIONAL W-L	PROJECTED FINAL RECORD
Boston (93-61)	21-9 (.700)	6-4 (.600)	17-13 (.567)	18-16 (.529)	5-3 (.625)	98-64 (.605)
Oakland (90-63)	20-10 (.667)	7-3 (.700)	18-12 (.600)	19-17 (.528)	6-3 (.667)	96-66 (.593)
Detroit (89-64)	17-13 (.567)	7-3 (.700)	21-9 (.700)	21-14 (.600)	6-3 (.667)	95-67 (.586)
Cleveland (83-70)	17-13 (.567)	6-4 (.600)	20-10 (.667)	27-9 (.750)	6-3 (.667)	89-73 (.549)
Texas (83-69)	13-17 (.433)	2-8 (.200)	13-17 (.433)	27-7 (.794)	5-5 (.500)	88-74 (.543)
Tampa Bay (83-69)	13-17 (.433)	5-5 (.500)	17-13 (.567)	28-19 (.596)	5-5 (.500)	88-74 (.543)
Baltimore (81-71)	15-15 (.500)	5-5 (.500)	15-15 (.500)	23-24 (.489)	5-5 (.500)	86-76 (.531)
Kansas City (80-72)	16-14 (.533)	6-4 (.600)	23-7 (.767)	11-11 (.500)	6-4 (.600)	86-76 (.525)
New York (80-73)	16-14 (.533)	4-6 (.400)	14-16 (.467)	11-11 (.500)	4-5 (.444)	84-78 (.519)

First, you will note I have added the 'Last 10' record since that is now of greater importance than it was, and also the 'Opponents Opponents Record' which I think is of some importance. I'll touch more on the latter in a bit. As you can see, my projections show there won't be any surprises once Game 162 has ended for all teams. What you see in the standings now, is what it will likely end up being. Cleveland is now the favorite to win the first AL Wildcard spot, while Texas and Tampa Bay now look to finish tied for the second wildcard spot - resulting in a 1-game playoff at the Ballpark in Arlington. Good thing Texas broke out of their slump to split the 4-game series in Tampa this week, giving the Rangers a 4-3 season-series advantage over the Rays. I wonder if the 10,000-14,000 fans that showed up to Tropicana Field were aware of the magnitude of those games? Clearly the "fans" that refused to fill the remaining 20,000-25,000 empty seats did not know/care. Typical Florida sports fans though - worst in America. Back to the Rangers, although they have a stellar record against their remaining opponents, said remaining opponents are doing well of late, having won 17 of their last 30 combined. So the remaining schedule metrics seem to negate each other somewhat, leaving Texas' recent history as the best metric for their playoff hopes...which in that regard, isn't good.

It is interesting that the two teams that are favorites for the last wildcard spot, are also the two teams that are limping to the finish line (both TEX & TB are 13-17 in their final 30 games). But time is fleeting for the Orioles, Royals, and Yankees to catch up. Regarding the Yankees, it seems like they need to win at least 7 of their final 9 games to make the playoffs. With 3 home vs SF, 3 home vs TB, and 3 @ HOU; it is possible. Such an odd schedule over their final 9 games, when every other team in the AL East is back-loaded with intra-division games. As for the Royals, the great thing going for them is that when combining their opponents (Rangers, Mariners, and White Sox) records over their last 10 games, they are 7-23 which bodes well for Kansas City. However, they are 3 games behind Cleveland currently and will need to win their final three series, including a sweep of the Mariners to make the playoffs. Lastly, every piece of analysis suggests a 5-5 finish for the Orioles, which will not be good enough. With a crucial 4-game series in Tampa at the Ray Cave starting tonight, we will soon find out if the Orioles deserve to be in the playoffs. Baltimore absolutely MUST take 3 out of 4 from the Rays, then finish the job home against Toronto and Boston.

For the Orioles, Rays, Rangers, and Royals - the time is now, with each in pivotal series against each other this weekend. What a fun time to be a baseball fan!

2013-14 English Premier League Predictions

Now that the transfer season is finally over and all the teams are set until January, I decided to make my first-ever attempt at Premier League predictions. I analyzed each club's form to close last season and their form to start this season, assessed their off-season moves, and computed some very limited statistical analysis. Here is what I came up with:

RANK	CLUB	GD	PTS.	REMARKS
1	Chelsea	+34	80	2014-15 Champions League
2	Manchester United	+31	79	2014-15 Champions League
3	Arsenal	+34	77	2014-15 Champions League
4	Manchester City	+30	77	2014-15 Champions League
5	Liverpool	+32	67	2014-15 Europa League
6	Tottenham	+22	67	2014-15 Europa League
7	Swansea City	+10	55	2014-15 Europa League
8	Everton	+9	54
9	West Ham	-4	48
10	Norwich City	-4	47
11	West Brom	-9	43
12	Southampton	-12	42
13	Aston Villa	-9	41
14	Stoke City	-7	40
15	Fulham	-15	39
16	Cardiff City	-18	39
17	Newcastle United	-27	39
18	Sunderland	-24	38	Relegated
19	Hull City	-26	32	Relegated
20	Crystal Palace	-24	28	Relegated

As you can see, I think it will be a very exciting four-team battle for the Premier League trophy, between Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal, and Manchester City. And just for fun, I'll say the three teams that get promoted to the Premier League next year will be Queen's Park Rangers, Watford, and Blackpool.

Examining the 2013 AL Playoff Race

Being an Orioles fan that has endured the ups and downs of the past few weeks, I wanted to take a rudimentary look at how likely the O's, and other American League playoff contenders, will make the playoffs. Over at Baseball Reference you are able to look at detailed standings, including a team's win-loss record over the past 30 games (which I feel is more indicative of a team's projected performance than the typically used 'Last 10 W-L'). Notable 'hot' teams are Boston and Oakland (both playoff locks) and New York (which are playing significantly better than their overall record). I also took a look at each contender's remaining strength of schedule for the final 15-18 games left in the season. The three easiest remaining SOS belong to Texas, Cleveland, and Boston (good record + playing well lately + easy remaining SOS = 100 wins?); while the three hardest remaining SOS belong to Baltimore, Oakland, and Kansas City. I then took a simple 50/50 average of the two winning percentages, and used that as an expected 'Additional W-L (%)'. Here is what I found for each contender's expected overall final record:

TEAM	RECORD	LAST 30	REMAINING SOS	ADDITIONAL W-L	PROJECTED FINAL RECORD	RESULT
Boston	89-58 (.605)	19-11 (.633)	50-30 (.625)	9-6 (.600)	98-64 (.605)	AL #1
Oakland	84-61 (.579)	19-11 (.633)	23-24 (.489)	10-7 (.588)	94-68 (.580)	AL #2
Detroit	84-62 (.575)	15-15 (.500)	40-30 (.571)	9-7 (.563)	93-69 (.574)	AL #3
Texas	81-64 (.559)	16-14 (.533)	38-15 (.717)	11-6 (.647)	92-70 (.568)	AL #4
New York	78-68 (.534)	19-11 (.633)	44-42 (.512)	9-7 (.563)	87-75 (.537)	1-game playoff at Yankee Stadium
Cleveland	77-68 (.531)	15-15 (.500)	31-16 (.660)	10-7 (.588)	87-75 (.537)	1-game playoff at Yankee Stadium
Tampa Bay	78-66 (.542)	12-18 (.400)	39-35 (.527)	8-10 (.444)	86-76 (.531)	-1 GB
Baltimore	77-68 (.531)	13-17 (.433)	28-31 (.475)	8-9 (.471)	85-77 (.525)	-2 GB
Kansas City	77-69 (.527)	15-15 (.500)	27-27 (.500)	8-8 (.500)	85-77 (.525)	-2 GB

No surprises with the winners of the AL East and AL Central, but the AL West should come down to the final series. Although Oakland is playing better as of late, Texas' remaining schedule is considerably easier. Also of note, of their final 17 games, Texas plays 10 home games, while Oakland plays 10 road games. Either way, one of those two teams will get the first AL wildcard spot - barring an unforeseen collapse. So the question is, of the five teams in contention for it, who grabs the second AL wildcard spot? New York and Cleveland are the favorites as they are the only two that win over half of their remaining games. This projection has them finishing with identical 87-75 records. After consulting with the MLB playoff tiebreaker rules, this would mean a 1-game playoff between the Yankees and Indians at Yankee Stadium, with the winner travelling to Texas or Oakland for the 1-game AL Wildcard Playoff. Left out are Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and regretfully for us O's fans, Baltimore.

As all baseball fans know, weird and unpredictable things can and do happen in the final two weeks of the season as the pressure of striving for the playoffs takes its toll. From an Orioles fan standpoint, it's clear and simple, they need to get real hot against some tough teams if they want to earn a playoff spot. This projection would say 88 wins would clinch the second wildcard spot (11-6 remaining record for Baltimore and Cleveland; 11-5 remaining record for Kansas City; 10-8 remaining record for Tampa; and 10-6 remaining record for New York). From that perspective, Tampa Bay and Kansas City are the most and least likely, respectively, to make the playoffs. Though the Rays' recent performance would suggest otherwise. Speaking of recent performance, let's say the Yankees continue to play .633 ball for the rest of the season. That would give them a final record of 88-74. Going back to an Orioles fan perspective, I think you need to account for that and assume it will take 89 wins to make the playoffs. So I think Baltimore will need to win 12 off their final 17 games to make the playoffs - a tall order considering all 17 games are against fellow AL East teams.

It is interesting to consider (and this was a realistic expectation I had before the season began) that the 2013 Orioles may be a better team than the 2012 Orioles, but are much less lucky than last year's team. I just read a fine blog post by Joe Posnanski which details the luck factor that was needed for the 2012 Orioles, and how the lack of luck this year, may cause the O's to miss the playoffs - despite improved team and individual performances. Although they haven't had much Orioles Magic this year, in comparison to last year, us O's fans may need to hope for some of that 2012 luck factor to return these final 17 games.

Ring Of Fire

ECMWF Ensemble Mean and GFS Ensemble Mean continue to signal strong ridging building back in to start the week.

For the Dakotas, highs of 90+ degrees should be common each day from Saturday through at least Tuesday, with the peak heat likely to occur on Monday.

Triple digits possible again Sunday and Monday from the Bismarck-Mobridge-Pierre area. For those days, 850mb temps are forecast to reach +24C on the 00z ensemble runs of the ECMWF and GFS. Operational runs have 850mb temps of +26C and +28C, respectively, for those models. As a comparison, the evening BIS sounding on Tuesday indicated an 850mb temp of +25.6C - a day in which their surface high temperature was 102F (20130821_00z BIS Sounding Tabular Data).

There is disagreement as to whether the ridge flattens a bit around the middle to late next week. Even if that happens though, it looks like we will just go from hot (highs in the 90s) to seasonably warm (highs in the 80s). However, if the operational GFS is correct, the ridge reloads and is potentially even stronger to close the week. It should be noted, that the more reliable medium range option - the ECMWF Ensemble mean - has a flattened ridge to close the work week, but then it too builds in a stronger ridge for next weekend, albeit a couple days later than the operational GFS.

It is ironic I have returned to blogging by mentioning another opportunity for triple digit heat in Bismarck, when my last post in April, detailed their 23.5" snowstorm. I'm looking forward to blogging again, with my next post likely examining whether this heat verifies to start the week, and re-investigate how much and how long the ridge flattens to close the week.

April 14-15 Snowstorm Live Blog

I will try to update this as often as possible tonight until I go to sleep.

11:30am - Well I see I didn't miss much while I was sleeping. Snowstorm total of about 4" here in Grand Forks. Less than impressive, that's for sure. As usual, we were the exception to the norm. Here is a select list of snow totals from this storm:

• Bismarck (Burleigh Co.), ND - 23.5"
• LaMoure (Edgeley Co.), ND - 20.0"
• 4NW Hazelton (Emmons Co.), ND - 18.7"
• Selfridge (Sioux Co.), ND - 18.0"
• Glen Ullin (Morton Co.), ND - 18"
• Bismarck NWS (Burleigh Co.), ND - 17.7"
• Jamestown (Stutsman Co.), ND - 17.0"
• 3SW Dickinson (Stark Co.) - 16.0"
• Garrison (McLean Co.), ND - 14.0"
• Harvey (Wells Co.), ND - 12.0"
• Minot (Ward Co.), ND - 11.0"
• Fargo (Cass Co.), ND - 10.8"
• Park River (Walsh Co.), MN - 10.0"
• McLeod (Ransom Co.), ND - 9.8"
• Larimore (Grand Forks Co.), ND - 9.0"
• Lidgerwood (Richland Co.), ND - 9.0"
• Moorhead (Clay Co.), MN - 8.8"
• Carrington (Foster, Co.), ND - 8.0"
• Michigan (Nelson Co.), ND - 8.0"
• 6NE Hatton (Grand Forks Co.), ND - 7.0"
• Wahpeton (Richland Co.), ND - 7.0"
• East Grand Forks (Polk Co.), MN - 5.5"
• Fergus Falls (Otter Tail Co.), MN - 4.5"
• Grand Forks NWS (Grand Forks Co.), ND - 3.6"
• Bemidji (Beltrami Co.), MN - 2.5"
• Pembina (Pembina Co.), ND - 2.5"

3:12am - 3 ¹/₄" outside. Last measurement of the night....bedtime.

12:55am - About 2" of snow accumulation now. More snow pellets than snow flakes falling now. If my 6.5" prediction comes true, I guess it will be a slow accumulation through the night. I will try to take one more measurement at 3am.

10:10pm - 1" of accumulation out there. Snow intensity has decreased to light snow. Roads are slushy and snow is melting from the trees with a temperature of 33°F. Going to be hard to accumulate when there isn't a period of heavy snow.

9:17pm - Heavy snow here in Grand Forks the past 30-40 minutes. Globs of wet snow fell on my car during my short drive home from work. This is the closest to a Mid-Atlantic snowfall that I've seen here. I would estimate the snow to liquid ratio is at best 10:1, more likely 9:1 though. Estimated snowfall of 0.5"

8:13pm - Dusting of snow on the rooftops and vegetation. Pavements are taking a while to cool down still and remain wet, but the edges and cracks of the parking lot are starting to see a thin dusting of accumulation.

6:30pm - All snow here now on the north end of Grand Forks. Later than I expected yesterday, that's for sure. Future updates will generally be accumulation updates.

6:25pm - In-situ wet bulbing...GFK was 38/28 when DZ began, now at 34/30 with -RASN.

6:08pm - Had an occasional snowflake mixing in earlier, now a rain/snow mix. It won't be long now before it's all snow.

6:04pm - Light rain here on the north side of town for the past half hour, after about a half hour of drizzle. I hear it's snowing on the south side of town though. I guess the high of 39 and extremely slow northward progression through the Red River Valley is playing a major role. Based on radar echo, rain should change to snow any minute now.

March 2013 Climate Summary

Notes:

• Temperature data from the airport (GFK) and precipitation data from the University. 
• ##^R denotes record maximum
• ##_R denotes record minimum

Grand Forks, ND (GFK)

Day	High	Low	Dep.	Precip.	Snow	Depth
1	25	4	-3	0.00”	0.0”	4”
2	24	3	-4	Trace	Trace	4”
3	31	13	+4	Trace	0.1”	4”
4	27	24	+7	0.27”	7.0”	6”
5	25	18	+3	0.03”	0.5”	10”
6	25	1	-7	Trace	0.1"	10"
7	27	-5	-9	0.00"	0.0"	10"
8	32	18	+4	0.00"	0.0"	10"
9	29	22	+5	Trace	Trace	9"
10	23	-1	-11	Trace	Trace	9"
11	22	1	-10	Trace	Trace	9"
12	22	0	-12	0.01"	0.2"	9"
13	21	-11	-18	0.09"	2.2"	9"
14	28	6	-7	0.01"	0.3"	11"
15	20	-1	-14	0.14"	4.2"	10"
16	10	-18R	-29	0.00"	0.0"	13"
17	20	-23R	-27	0.11"	3.2"	12"
18	23	3	-13	0.06"	1.4"	14"
19	15	-7	-23	0.00"	0.0"	14"
20	15	-7	-23	0.00"	0.0"	14"
21	16	-13R	-26	0.00"	0.0"	12"
22	19	-10	-23	0.00"	0.0"	12"
23	26	5	-13	0.00"	0.0"	11"
24	25	19	-7	Trace	Trace	11"
25	26	5	-14	Trace	Trace	11"
26	28	-2	-17	0.00"	0.0"	11"
27	30	-3	-17	0.00"	0.0"	11"
28	37	6	-10	0.00"	0.0"	11"
29	31	21	-6	Trace	0.0"	10"
30	39	26	0	Trace	Trace	9"
31	32	15	-9	Trace	Trace	7"
March 2013	24.9	3.5	-11.0R	0.72”	19.2”	Avg. 9.9"

Average High: 24.9°F [Departure from Normal: -9.3°F]
Average Low: 3.5°F [Departure from Normal: -12.6°F]
Mean Temperature: 14.2°F_R [Departure From Normal: -11.0°F]
Total Precipitation: 0.72" [Departure from Normal: -0.30"; 71% of normal]
Total Snowfall: 19.2" [Departure from Normal: +12.8"; 300% of normal]
Seasonal Snowfall: 52.8" [Departure from Normal: +10.0"; 123% of normal]

2013 MLB Predictions

One of the greatest days of the year has arrived once again - OPENING DAY! Not every year, but most years since high school I have made baseball predictions at the beginning of the season. More often than not, they stink - but it's still fun to do. This year, I attempted to incorporate a bit more research than usual, so who knows if these are better or worse than usual, but here goes nothing:

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Tampa Bay Rays	91-71	- -
Baltimore Orioles	85-77	-6
Toronto Blue Jays	84-78	-7
New York Yankees	82-80	-9
Boston Red Sox	75-87	-16
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Detroit Tigers	93-69	- -
Kansas City Royals	82-80	-11
Cleveland Indians	79-83	-14
Chicago White Sox	76-86	-17
Minnesota Twins	67-95	-26
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Oakland Athletics	92-70	- -
Los Angeles Angels	91-71	-1
Texas Rangers	84-78	-8
Seattle Mariners	75-87	-17
Houston Astros	58-104	-34
AMERICAN LEAGUE WILDCARD
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Los Angeles Angels	91-71	- -
Baltimore Orioles	85-77	- -
Toronto Blue Jays	84-78	-1
Texas Rangers	84-78	-1
Kansas City Royals	82-80	-3
New York Yankees	82-80	-3
Cleveland Indians	79-83	-12
Chicago White Sox	76-86	-15
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Washington Nationals	102-60	- -
Philadelphia Phillies	90-72	-12
Atlanta Braves	88-74	-14
New York Mets	71-91	-31
Miami Marlins	60-102	-42
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Cincinnati Reds	87-75	- -
St. Louis Cardinals	86-76	-1
Milwaukee Brewers	84-78	-3
Pittsburgh Pirates	81-81	-6
Chicago Cubs	69-93	-18
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
TEAM	RECORD	GB
San Francisco Giants	90-72	- -
Los Angeles Dodgers	89-73	-1
Arizona Diamondbacks	85-77	-5
San Diego Padres	74-88	-16
Colorado Rockies	59-103	-31
NATIONAL LEAGUE WILDCARD
TEAM	RECORD	GB
Philadelphia Phillies	90-72	- -
Los Angeles Dodgers	89-73	- -
Atlanta Braves	88-74	-1
St. Louis Cardinals	86-76	-3
Arizona Diamondbacks	85-77	-4
Milwaukee Brewers	84-78	-5
Pittsburgh Pirates	81-81	-8
San Diego Padres	74-88	-15

 -------------

AL WILDCARD

4-Los Angeles Angels over Baltimore Orioles

NL WILDCARD

5-Los Angeles Dodgers over Philadelphia Phillies

ALDS

1-Detroit Tigers over 4-Los Angeles Angels

3-Tampa Bay Rays over 2-Oakland Athletics

NLDS

1-Washington Nationals over 5-Los Angeles Dodgers

2-San Francisco Giants over 3-Cincinnati Reds

ALCS

1-Detroit Tigers over 3-Tampa Bay Rays

NLCS

1-Washington Nationals over 2-San Francisco Giants

WORLD SERIES

Washington Nationals over Detroit Tigers

------------- 

MVP

AL: Miguel Cabrera (3B - Detroit Tigers)

NL: Joey Votto (1B - Cincinnati Reds)

CY YOUNG

AL: Justin Verlander (SP - Detroit Tigers)

NL: Clayton Kershaw (SP - Los Angeles Dodgers)

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

AL: Wil Myers (OF - Tampa Bay Rays)

NL: Adam Eaton (OF - Arizona Diamondbacks)

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

AL: Brian Roberts (2B - Baltimore Orioles)

NL: Ryan Howard (1B - Philadelphia Phillies)

MANAGER OF THE YEAR

AL: Buck Showalter (Baltimore Orioles)

NL: Davey Johnson (Washington Nationals)