Examining the 2013 AL Playoff Race

Being an Orioles fan that has endured the ups and downs of the past few weeks, I wanted to take a rudimentary look at how likely the O's, and other American League playoff contenders, will make the playoffs. Over at Baseball Reference you are able to look at detailed standings, including a team's win-loss record over the past 30 games (which I feel is more indicative of a team's projected performance than the typically used 'Last 10 W-L'). Notable 'hot' teams are Boston and Oakland (both playoff locks) and New York (which are playing significantly better than their overall record). I also took a look at each contender's remaining strength of schedule for the final 15-18 games left in the season. The three easiest remaining SOS belong to Texas, Cleveland, and Boston (good record + playing well lately + easy remaining SOS = 100 wins?); while the three hardest remaining SOS belong to Baltimore, Oakland, and Kansas City. I then took a simple 50/50 average of the two winning percentages, and used that as an expected 'Additional W-L (%)'. Here is what I found for each contender's expected overall final record:

TEAM	RECORD	LAST 30	REMAINING SOS	ADDITIONAL W-L	PROJECTED FINAL RECORD	RESULT
Boston	89-58 (.605)	19-11 (.633)	50-30 (.625)	9-6 (.600)	98-64 (.605)	AL #1
Oakland	84-61 (.579)	19-11 (.633)	23-24 (.489)	10-7 (.588)	94-68 (.580)	AL #2
Detroit	84-62 (.575)	15-15 (.500)	40-30 (.571)	9-7 (.563)	93-69 (.574)	AL #3
Texas	81-64 (.559)	16-14 (.533)	38-15 (.717)	11-6 (.647)	92-70 (.568)	AL #4
New York	78-68 (.534)	19-11 (.633)	44-42 (.512)	9-7 (.563)	87-75 (.537)	1-game playoff at Yankee Stadium
Cleveland	77-68 (.531)	15-15 (.500)	31-16 (.660)	10-7 (.588)	87-75 (.537)	1-game playoff at Yankee Stadium
Tampa Bay	78-66 (.542)	12-18 (.400)	39-35 (.527)	8-10 (.444)	86-76 (.531)	-1 GB
Baltimore	77-68 (.531)	13-17 (.433)	28-31 (.475)	8-9 (.471)	85-77 (.525)	-2 GB
Kansas City	77-69 (.527)	15-15 (.500)	27-27 (.500)	8-8 (.500)	85-77 (.525)	-2 GB

No surprises with the winners of the AL East and AL Central, but the AL West should come down to the final series. Although Oakland is playing better as of late, Texas' remaining schedule is considerably easier. Also of note, of their final 17 games, Texas plays 10 home games, while Oakland plays 10 road games. Either way, one of those two teams will get the first AL wildcard spot - barring an unforeseen collapse. So the question is, of the five teams in contention for it, who grabs the second AL wildcard spot? New York and Cleveland are the favorites as they are the only two that win over half of their remaining games. This projection has them finishing with identical 87-75 records. After consulting with the MLB playoff tiebreaker rules, this would mean a 1-game playoff between the Yankees and Indians at Yankee Stadium, with the winner travelling to Texas or Oakland for the 1-game AL Wildcard Playoff. Left out are Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and regretfully for us O's fans, Baltimore.

As all baseball fans know, weird and unpredictable things can and do happen in the final two weeks of the season as the pressure of striving for the playoffs takes its toll. From an Orioles fan standpoint, it's clear and simple, they need to get real hot against some tough teams if they want to earn a playoff spot. This projection would say 88 wins would clinch the second wildcard spot (11-6 remaining record for Baltimore and Cleveland; 11-5 remaining record for Kansas City; 10-8 remaining record for Tampa; and 10-6 remaining record for New York). From that perspective, Tampa Bay and Kansas City are the most and least likely, respectively, to make the playoffs. Though the Rays' recent performance would suggest otherwise. Speaking of recent performance, let's say the Yankees continue to play .633 ball for the rest of the season. That would give them a final record of 88-74. Going back to an Orioles fan perspective, I think you need to account for that and assume it will take 89 wins to make the playoffs. So I think Baltimore will need to win 12 off their final 17 games to make the playoffs - a tall order considering all 17 games are against fellow AL East teams.

It is interesting to consider (and this was a realistic expectation I had before the season began) that the 2013 Orioles may be a better team than the 2012 Orioles, but are much less lucky than last year's team. I just read a fine blog post by Joe Posnanski which details the luck factor that was needed for the 2012 Orioles, and how the lack of luck this year, may cause the O's to miss the playoffs - despite improved team and individual performances. Although they haven't had much Orioles Magic this year, in comparison to last year, us O's fans may need to hope for some of that 2012 luck factor to return these final 17 games.