2012-13 NCAA Basketball Rankings - Vol. VIII

Below are my rankings through games played on Sunday, February 24th:

Rank	Last	Team	Record	Conference
1	2	Indiana	(24-3, 12-2)	B1G
2	4	Gonzaga	(27-2, 14-0)	West Coast
3	1	Florida	(22-4, 12-2)	SEC
4	6	Duke	(24-3, 11-3)	ACC
5	10	Georgetown	(21-4, 11-3)	Big East
6	7	Louisville	(23-5, 11-4)	Big East
7	8	Kansas	(23-4, 11-3)	Big 12
8	3	Michigan St.	(22-6, 11-4)	B1G
9	9	Michigan	(23-4, 10-4)	B1G
10	11	Oklahoma St.	(20-6, 10-4)	Big 12
11	5	Miami	(22-4, 13-1)	ACC
12	12	Wisconsin	(19-8, 10-4)	B1G
13	16	New Mexico	(23-4, 10-2)	Mountain West
14	19	Ohio St.	(20-7, 10-5)	B1G
15	14	Syracuse	(22-5, 10-4)	Big East
16	17	Arizona	(23-4, 11-4)	PAC-12
17	13	Colorado St.	(21-6, 8-4)	Mountain West
18	27	Saint Louis	(21-5, 10-2)	Atlantic 10
19	32	Notre Dame	(22-6, 10-5)	Big East
20	22	Memphis	(24-3, 13-0)	Conference-USA
21	25	St. Mary's	(24-5, 11-2)	West Coast
22	15	Pitt	(21-7, 9-6)	Big East
23	20	VCU	(22-6, 10-3)	Atlantic 10
24	28	Kansas St.	(22-5, 11-3)	Big 12
25	21	Butler	(22-6, 9-4)	Atlantic 10
26	31	UNLV	(20-7, 8-5)	Mountain West
27	18	Marquette	(19-7, 10-4)	Big East
28	30	San Diego St.	(20-7, 8-5)	Mountain West
29	29	UCLA	(20-7, 10-4)	PAC-12
30	23	Minnesota	(18-9, 6-8)	B1G
31	37	Wichita St.	(24-5, 12-4)	Missouri Valley
32	36	Oklahoma	(18-8, 9-5)	Big 12
33	38	Connecticut	(19-8, 9-6)	Big East
34	33	Illinois	(20-7, 7-6)	B1G
35	44	Iowa St.	(19-8, 9-5)	Big 12
36	26	Oregon	(22-6, 11-4)	PAC-12
37	34	Creighton	(22-7, 11-5)	Missouri Valley
38	24	Cincinnati	(19-9, 7-8)	Big East
39	40	Virginia	(19-8, 9-5)	ACC
40	39	Colorado	(18-8, 8-6)	PAC-12
41	N/A	Villanova	(18-10, 9-6)	Big East
42	N/A	Kentucky	(19-8, 10-4)	SEC
43	N/A	Missouri	(19-8, 8-6)	SEC
44	N/A	North Carolina	(19-8, 9-5)	ACC
45	47	Middle Tennessee St.	(25-4, 17-1)	Sun Belt
46	43	Boise St.	(18-8, 6-6)	Mountain West
47	48	Akron	(22-4, 12-0)	MAC
48	N/A	Cal	(17-9, 9-5)	Pac-12
49	46	Louisiana Tech	(24-3, 14-0)	WAC
50	42	NC State	(19-8, 8-6)	ACC

Dropped From Rankings: #35 Iowa, #41 Baylor, #45 Mississippi, #49 Maryland, #50 Alabama

Teams Rising:

• +13 Notre Dame (22-6, 10-5)
• +10 Villanova (18-10, 9-6)
• +9 Saint Louis (21-5, 10-2)
• +9 Iowa St. (19-8, 9-5)
• +9 Kentucky (19-8, 10-4)

Teams Falling:

• -14 Cincinnati (19-9, 7-8)
• -10 Oregon (22-6, 11-4)
• -9 Marquette (19-7, 10-4)
• -8 NC State (19-8, 8-6)
• -7 Pitt (21-7, 9-6); Minnesota (18-9, 6-8)

Of the 68 NCAA Tournament teams, there are 37 at-large bids. This week, I consider teams in the Top 40 as 'Locks'. Of those teams, 10 are conference leaders and 29 are at-large locks (#33 UConn ineligible). The next 16 at-large teams are in my opinion bubble teams (First 8 in, next 8 out).

• Bubble Teams IN: Villanova, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Boise St., Cal, NC State, Baylor
• Bubble Teams OUT: Arkansas, Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, Maryland, Denver, Tennessee, Temple
• Below the Bubble NIT Teams: St. John's, BYU, La Salle, Northern Iowa, Charlotte, Indiana St., Southern Miss, Arizona St.

2012-13 NCAA Basketball Rankings - Vol. VII

Below are my rankings through games played on Sunday, February 17th:

Rank	Last	Team	Record	Conference
1	4	Florida	(21-3, 11-1)	SEC
2	1	Indiana	(23-3, 11-2)	B1G
3	6	Michigan St.	(22-4, 11-2)	B1G
4	5	Gonzaga	(25-2, 12-0)	West Coast
5	10	Miami	(21-3, 12-0)	ACC
6	3	Duke	(22-3, 9-3)	ACC
7	7	Louisville	(22-5, 10-4)	Big East
8	8	Kansas	(21-4, 9-3)	Big 12
9	2	Michigan	(22-4, 9-4)	B1G
10	17	Georgetown	(19-4, 9-3)	Big East
11	16	Oklahoma St.	(19-5, 9-3)	Big 12
12	21	Wisconsin	(18-8, 9-4)	B1G
13	19	Colorado St.	(21-4, 8-2)	Mountain West
14	13	Syracuse	(21-4, 9-3)	Big East
15	12	Pitt	(20-6, 8-5)	Big East
16	14	New Mexico	(22-4, 9-2)	Mountain West
17	11	Arizona	(21-4, 9-4)	PAC-12
18	28	Marquette	(18-6, 9-3)	Big East
19	9	Ohio St.	(18-7, 8-5)	B1G
20	30	VCU	(21-5, 9-2)	Atlantic 10
21	18	Butler	(21-5, 8-3)	Atlantic 10
22	29	Memphis	(22-3, 11-0)	Conference-USA
23	15	Minnesota	(18-8, 6-7)	B1G
24	20	Cincinnati	(19-7, 7-6)	Big East
25	27	St. Mary's	(22-5, 10-2)	West Coast
26	24	Oregon	(21-5, 10-3)	PAC-12
27	33	Saint Louis	(19-5, 8-2)	Atlantic 10
28	32	Kansas St.	(20-5, 9-3)	Big 12
29	25	UCLA	(19-7, 9-4)	PAC-12
30	23	San Diego St.	(18-7, 6-5)	Mountain West
31	38	UNLV	(18-7, 6-5)	Mountain West
32	36	Notre Dame	(20-6, 8-5)	Big East
33	N/A	Illinois	(19-6, 6-5)	B1G
34	22	Creighton	(21-6, 10-5)	Missouri Valley
35	45	Iowa	(17-8, 6-6)	B1G
36	N/A	Oklahoma	(16-8, 7-5)	Big 12
37	43	Wichita St.	(22-5, 11-4)	Missouri Valley
38	40	Connecticut	(17-8, 7-6)	Big East
39	N/A	Colorado	(17-8, 7-6)	PAC-12
40	N/A	Virginia	(18-7, 8-4)	ACC
41	41	Baylor	(16-10, 7-6)	Big 12
42	42	NC State	(18-7, 7-5)	ACC
43	37	Boise St.	(16-8, 4-6)	Mountain West
44	31	Iowa St.	(17-8, 7-5)	Big 12
45	26	Mississippi	(19-6, 8-4)	SEC
46	49	Louisiana Tech	(23-3, 14-0)	WAC
47	50	Middle Tennessee St.	(23-4, 15-1)	Sun Belt
48	N/A	Akron	(21-4, 12-0)	MAC
49	N/A	Maryland	(18-7, 6-6)	ACC
50	N/A	Alabama	(17-8, 9-3)	SEC

Dropped From Rankings: #34 Kentucky, #35 BYU, #39 St. John's, #44 Belmont, #46 Arkansas, #47 Indiana St., #48 Missouri

Teams Rising:

• +18 Illinois (19-6, 6-5)
• +15 Oklahoma (16-8, 7-5)
• +12 Colorado (17-8, 7-6)
• +11 Virginia (18-7, 8-4)
• +10 Marquette (18-6, 9-3), VCU (21-5, 9-2)

Teams Falling:

• -19 Mississippi (19-6, 8-4)
• -13 Iowa St. (17-8, 7-5)
• -12 Creighton (21-6, 10-5)
• -10 Ohio St. (18-7, 8-5)
• -8 Minnesota (18-8, 6-7)

Of the 68 NCAA Tournament teams, there are 37 at-large bids. This week, I consider teams in the Top 40 as 'Locks'. Of those teams, 10 are conference leaders and 29 are at-large locks (#38 UConn ineligible). The next 16 at-large teams are in my opinion bubble teams (First 8 in, next 8 out).

• Bubble Teams IN: Baylor, NC State, Boise St., Iowa St., Mississippi, Maryland, Alabama, North Carolina
• Bubble Teams OUT: Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, La Salle, Villanova, Northern Iowa, St. John's, Arizona St.
• Below the Bubble NIT Teams: Stanford, BYU, Charlotte, Tennessee, Indiana St., Florida St., Southern Miss, Cal

-40F Wind Chill Tonight?

What a day. The wind has been relentless - though not quite as strong as earlier. Currently in Grand Forks, it is -7°F, with a north wind of 26 mph gusting to 35 mph, producing a wind chill of -34F. Early this morning, the worst conditions were at 5:09am with a north wind of 43 mph gusting to 51 mph:

Conditions at:	KGFK observed 18 February 2013  11:09 UTC
Temperature:	-8.0°C (18°F)
Dewpoint:	-10.0°C (14°F) [RH = 85%]
Pressure (altimeter):	29.57 inches Hg (1001.4 mb)
Winds:	from the NNW (340 degrees) at 43 MPH (37 knots; 19.2 m/s) gusting to 51 MPH (44 knots; 22.9 m/s)
Visibility:	0.25 miles (0.40 km)
Ceiling:	indefinite ceiling with vertical visibility of 900 feet AGL
Clouds:	obscured sky
Present Weather:	FZFG  (freezing fog) SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!! "$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance
KGFK 181109Z AUTO 34037G44KT 1/4SM FZFG VV009 M08/M10 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 34044/1108 PWINO FZRANO TSNO $

However with much lower actual temperatures, the wind chill is now the worst it's been and I'm wondering if we can reach a -40F wind chill. I have never experienced that, with my coldest experienced wind chill being -38F earlier this winter. It looks like we will bottom out to an overnight low of about -12F around 6-7am. If we can retain a 24 mph wind at that time, that will result in a wind chill of -40F. Otherwise, -13 with a 21 mph wind will work. Going to be close!

...UPDATE...At 8:37am we had a temperature of -11F and north wind of 23mph for a wind chill of -38F. However the peak wind, or gust, at that time was 29 knots (33.4mph). Using the peak wind, the wind chill this morning was -42F! This marks the lowest wind chill of my life.

KGFK 191453Z 35020KT 10SM SCT010 M24/M28 A3034 RMK AO2 PK WND 35029/1437 SLP304 6//// T12391278 53024

-------------

Below are a couple of nice videos showing how poor the visibility was on the outskirts of Grand Forks this morning. Visibility there was at best an eighth of a mile (660 feet) and at worst 50-100 feet. Even in the middle of town where I live, with plenty of homes and trees nearby to inhibit the blowing snow, visibility was no better than a half mile through morning. The local paper - The Grand Forks Herald - dubbed this 'Blizzard Dolley' which is named after former first lady Dolley Madison.

Blizzard Warning for GFK

We're under a blizzard warning through 6pm...

WEST POLK-KITTSON-WEST MARSHALL-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROOKSTON...EAST GRAND FORKS...
HALLOCK...WARREN...GRAFTON...NEW ROCKFORD...LAKOTA...
GRAND FORKS...COOPERSTOWN...FINLEY...MAYVILLE
953 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AND MAY BE HEAVY AT
  TIMES OVERNIGHT.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 30 TO
  40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE
  VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 10 INCHES. THE
  HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
  LANGDON AND PEMBINA AREA. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL RECEIVE 2 TO
  5 INCHES.

I think this is the third time this winter Grand Forks has been under a blizzard warning. I would have to go back and check, but I don't think we quite reached blizzard criteria on the first two. Well, the ground blizzard verified last month. Anyway, I have a hunch this one won't verify just because - well, this is Grand Forks, and for whatever reason during the two winters I have been here, winter has been largely underwhelming. I think we will be on the low end of the snowfall forecast of 2-5"...I say 2-3". As for winds and visibilities, I think we will fall just shy of blizzard criteria. Hopefully I'm wrong! Also I apologize to myself for the complete lack of scientific analysis regarding this...Grand Forks does this to us all sometimes I suppose.

-----------------------------------------

11:42 AM 2/18 UPDATE:  Sometimes it is good to be wrong. Blizzard warning verified!

KGFK 181653Z 34031G41KT 1/8SM BLSN VV009 M15/M18 A2981 RMK AO2 PK WND 34042/1609 TWR VIS 1/4 SNE26 SLP114 P0000 T11501178 $
KGFK 181553Z 35030G37KT 1/8SM SN BLSN VV009 M14/M16 A2977 RMK AO2 PK WND 35043/1459 TWR VIS 1/4 SLP099 P0001 T11391161 $
KGFK 181453Z 34032G38KT 1/8SM SN BLSN VV009 M14/M16 A2974 RMK AO2 PK WND 35044/1412 TWR VIS 1/4 SLP087 P0001 60003 T11391156 51039 $
KGFK 181353Z 34029G39KT 1/8SM SN BLSN VV006 M13/M15 A2971 RMK AO2 PK WND 34041/1334 TWR VIS 1/4 SNB24 SLP077 P0001 T11331150 $
KGFK 181253Z 34030G38KT 1/4SM BLSN VV007 M12/M14 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 34041/1204 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP066 P0001 T11221139 $
KGFK 181208Z 34032G41KT 1/4SM BLSN VV009 M11/M13 A2963 RMK AO2 PK WND 34041/1204 TWR VIS 1/2 $

A Belated Snowstorm Appreciation

This past Sunday (2/10), a strong snowstorm passed through the Northern Plains, bringing 6-12" of snowfall from the Sand Hills of Nebraska (where 50+ mph gusts aided in true blizzard conditions) to the Northland of Minnesota. The big winners from this storm were southeastern North Dakota, northeastern South Dakota, and west-central Minnesota. Across this area there were fairly widespread reports of 12-18", with a few locations reporting snowfall in the 18-24" range! For the early stages of this event, Grand Forks was on the northwest edge of snowfall. Then during the evening, a deformation band of snow set up across the Grand Forks area, allowing for a storm total of 4.9". Further south over the Fargo area (which saw a longer duration of snowfall), 7-10" reports were common. As far as Grand Forks goes, the 4.9" storm total was shockingly (if memory serves me correct) the largest storm total snowfall I have seen during the two winters I have been here. Not to discount a fine snow fall from this past Sunday, but in the grand scheme of things, I expected to see a better storm than that at some point over the past two winters. Here's hoping for a big March blizzard!   ....followed by a quick transition to Spring

2012-13 NCAA Basketball Rankings - Vol. VI

Below are my rankings through games played on Wednesday, February 6th:

Rank	Last	Team	Record	Conference
1	4	Indiana	(20-2, 8-1)	B1G
2	2	Michigan	(21-2, 8-2)	B1G
3	5	Duke	(19-2, 6-2)	ACC
4	3	Florida	(18-3, 8-1)	SEC
5	7	Gonzaga	(21-2, 8-0)	West Coast
6	9	Michigan St.	(19-4, 8-2)	B1G
7	12	Louisville	(20-4, 8-3)	Big East
8	1	Kansas	(19-3, 7-2)	Big 12
9	10	Ohio St.	(17-5, 7-3)	B1G
10	14	Miami	(18-3, 9-0)	ACC
11	13	Arizona	(20-2, 8-2)	PAC-12
12	22	Pitt	(19-5, 7-4)	Big East
13	6	Syracuse	(19-3, 7-2)	Big East
14	21	New Mexico	(20-3, 7-1)	Mountain West
15	16	Minnesota	(17-6, 5-5)	B1G
16	38	Oklahoma St.	(16-5, 6-3)	Big 12
17	25	Georgetown	(16-4, 6-3)	Big East
18	11	Butler	(19-4, 6-2)	Atlantic 10
19	27	Colorado St.	(19-4, 6-2)	Mountain West
20	20	Cincinnati	(18-5, 6-4)	Big East
21	23	Wisconsin	(16-7, 7-3)	B1G
22	24	Creighton	(20-4, 9-3)	Missouri Valley
23	19	San Diego St.	(17-5, 5-3)	Mountain West
24	8	Oregon	(18-4, 7-2)	PAC-12
25	18	UCLA	(16-6, 6-3)	PAC-12
26	15	Mississippi	(18-4, 7-2)	SEC
27	32	St. Mary's	(19-4, 7-1)	West Coast
28	26	Marquette	(16-5, 7-2)	Big East
29	33	Memphis	(19-3, 8-0)	Conference-USA
30	34	VCU	(18-5, 6-2)	Atlantic 10
31	35	Iowa St.	(16-6, 6-3)	Big 12
32	36	Kansas St.	(18-4, 7-2)	Big 12
33	49	Saint Louis	(17-5, 6-2)	Atlantic 10
34	N/A	Kentucky	(16-6, 7-2)	SEC
35	42	BYU	(18-6, 8-2)	West Coast
36	44	Notre Dame	(18-5, 6-4)	Big East
37	N/A	Boise St.	(15-7, 3-5)	Mountain West
38	31	UNLV	(16-6, 4-4)	Mountain West
39	48	St. John's	(15-8, 7-4)	Big East
40	37	Connecticut	(15-7, 5-5)	Big East
41	30	Baylor	(14-9, 5-5)	Big 12
42	28	NC State	(16-6, 5-4)	ACC
43	17	Wichita St.	(19-5, 8-4)	Missouri Valley
44	50	Belmont	(19-4, 10-0)	Ohio Valley
45	46	Iowa	(14-8, 3-6)	B1G
46	N/A	Arkansas	(14-8, 5-4)	SEC
47	N/A	Indiana St.	(15-8, 8-4)	Missouri Valley
48	29	Missouri	(16-5, 5-3)	SEC
49	47	Louisiana Tech	(19-3, 10-0)	WAC
50	N/A	Middle Tennessee St.	(20-4, 12-1)	Sun Belt

Dropped from rankings: #39 Villanova, #40 La Salle, #41 Arizona St., #43 Illinois, #45 Wyoming

Teams Rising:

• +22 Oklahoma St. (16-5, 6-3)
• +17 Kentucky (16-6, 7-2)
• +16 Saint Louis (17-5, 6-2)
• +14 Boise St. (15-7, 3-5)
• +10 Pitt (19-5, 7-4)

Teams Falling:

• -26 Wichita St. (19-5, 8-4)
• -19 Missouri (16-5, 5-3)
• -16 Oregon (18-4, 7-2)
• -14 NC State (16-6, 5-4)
• -11 Baylor (14-9, 5-4)

Projected 1-4 Seeds:
#1:  Indiana, Michigan, Duke, Florida
#2: Gonzaga, Michigan St., Louisville, Kansas
#3: Ohio St., Miami, Arizona, Pitt
#4: Syracuse, New Mexico, Minnesota, Oklahoma St.

Bubble Teams: Wichita St., Iowa, Arkansas, Indiana St., Missouri, Alabama, North Carolina,Oklahoma, Villanova, La Salle, Arizona St., Illinois, Wyoming, Stanford, Florida St., Colorado

'Below the Bubble' NIT Teams: Southern Miss, Northern Iowa, Air Force, Temple, Maryland, Charlotte, Virginia, Massachusetts