December Rain

Well it's about time I get back into blogging since it's December again. I see my last post was from my trip, in which I lamented over the amount of rain I had to drive through. Ironically, it's currently raining outside - in Grand Forks...in December...at 9am. The 7am temperature was 43°F which is the warmest it has been here since the day before Thanksgiving (11/21). Who knows when there was December rain in Grand Forks. A quick look over the past five years doesn't show any liquid precipitation.

Without a doubt the most prevalent and depressing weather condition since I returned from my trip is the amount of cloudy days we have had. Currently on a streak of 6 straight cloudy days, though that is not as bad as the miserable 15 consecutive cloudy days I experienced from the day I returned from my Western Adventure on 10/30, to 11/13. Based on daily climate data, since October 15th (50 days ago) we have had at least 60% cloud cover during 44 of the past 50 days. Incredibly 32 of those days have had either 90-100% cloud cover. So essentially, it has been overcast for 64% of the past 50 days, and mostly cloudy for an astounding 88% of the past 50 days. It has worn on me and made me think that this long absence of sunshine must be worse than any point last winter. Sure enough it is. The cloudiest 50-day stretch between October-April was from February 14th to April 3rd. During that period, 38/50 days featured at least 60% cloud cover, but only 15/50 days were 90-100% cloud cover.

I joke at work that it has gotten to the point where we should never be allowed to forecast anything other than overcast skies unless it is -20°F or the calendar flips to April. It has become predictable and comical seeing a few scenarios repeat. Southerly winds erode cloud cover over Fargo, and clearing advances northward, only to fall short of reaching Grand Forks because the effective surface warm front stops at the southern edge of the snow pack. A favorite (morbid sarcasm) of mine is after a weather system passes east of us, then watching the satellite through the day, thinking the clear skies that have developed in Devil's Lake during morning will surely reach Grand Forks by mid-afternoon - only to see moisture stubbornly remain over the red River Valley long enough for overcast skies to continue through the day. Probably the most common source of cloudiness has been as a result of northwest flow. Every 36 hours or so a weak disturbance moves through - too weak to amount to much more than very light precipitation - but enough moisture to reinforce cloud cover before clouds from the previous disturbance depart the area. Add to that there has been snow pack throughout northeast North Dakota for weeks now (only since Thanksgiving here, but off to the northwest there has been snow pack since early November I believe), and you have a nice recipe for plenty of moisture advecting into Grand Forks. It looks like on Wednesday we could see some rare sunshine as low-level winds become southerly, and with the snow pack pretty much gone now, we may clear out.

I'm not sure how this winter will turn out regarding temperature and snowfall - the law of averages since it has to be colder and snowier than last year - but one thing seems certain, it is definitely off to a much cloudier start.