Wednesday, February 26, 2014

2013-14 Statistical College Basketball Rankings, Vol. XIV

Rank Prev.
Rank
TEAM Record Weighted
Metric
Raw
Metric
AP
Rank
1 1 Florida (26-2, 15-0) 5.500 4 1
2 2 Arizona (25-2, 12-2) 11.800 1 3
3 6 Wichita St (30-0, 17-0) 15.000 15 2
4 4 Villanova (24-3, 12-2) 16.800 8 8
5 7 Louisville (23-4, 12-2) 20.800 3 7
6 5 Iowa (19-8, 8-6) 24.550 2 20
7 12 Virginia (23-5, 14-1) 26.600 13 12
8 8 Creighton (23-4, 13-2) 27.683 22 9
9 13 Kansas (22-6, 13-2) 28.500 12 5
10 9 Cincinnati (24-4, 13-2) 29.313 24 11
11 10 Kentucky (21-6, 11-3) 29.410 6 17
12 15 N Carolina (20-7, 10-4) 30.636 11 19
13 11 Pittsburgh (20-7, 8-6) 33.050 10 NR
14 22 Michigan (19-7, 11-3) 33.876 21 16
15 18 Duke (23-6, 12-4) 34.798 19 6
16 14 Memphis (21-6, 10-4) 34.975 32 21
17 17 Michigan St (22-6, 11-4) 35.340 9 18
18 19 Iowa State (21-5, 9-5) 36.505 20 15
19 16 San Diego St (24-3, 13-2) 36.821 38 13
20 3 Syracuse (26-2, 13-2) 37.986 17 4
21 24 Wisconsin (23-5, 10-5) 39.019 5 14
22 28 Saint Louis (25-2, 12-0) 40.000 40 10
23 20 Oklahoma (20-8, 9-6) 40.437 52 28
24 21 UCLA (21-6, 10-4) 40.550 14 27
25 23 Connecticut (21-6, 10-5) 41.731 18 26
26 25 Ohio State (22-6, 9-6) 43.117 7 22
27 29 VCU (20-7, 8-4) 44.692 36 NR
28 27 George Washington (20-7, 8-5) 45.021 29 NR
29 26 Texas (20-7, 9-5) 45.951 35 24
30 34 New Mexico (22-5, 13-2) 46.013 26 25
31 30 Colorado (20-8, 9-6) 46.470 25 NR
32 41 SMU (22-6, 11-4) 50.510 39 23
33 42 U Mass (21-5, 8-4) 52.883 28 30
34 32 Baylor (18-9, 6-8) 53.711 43 NR
35 39 Stanford (18-8, 9-5) 54.905 33 NR
36 45 Florida St (16-11, 7-8) 55.986 30 NR
37 35 Marquette (16-11, 8-6) 60.155 51 NR
38 36 California (18-9, 9-5) 60.287 49 NR
39 38 Oklahoma St (18-10, 6-9) 61.153 16 NR
40 37 Arizona St (19-8, 8-6) 61.604 31 NR
41 47 St Josephs (20-7, 10-3) 61.858 47 NR
42 43 Kansas St (19-9, 9-6) 62.614 46 NR
43 31 Gonzaga (23-6, 13-3) 64.553 27 31
44 NR Richmond (18-9, 8-4) 65.424 53 NR
45 40 Arkansas (18-9, 7-7) 65.911 37 NR
46 50 Nebraska (16-10, 8-6) 66.269 54 NR
47 46 Georgetown (16-11, 7-8) 67.198 63 NR
48 33 Minnesota (18-11, 7-9) 67.597 45 NR
49 44 Xavier (19-9, 9-6) 68.674 48 NR
50 48 Clemson (17-10, 8-7) 68.901 56 NR

Thursday, February 20, 2014

2013-14 Statistical College Basketball Rankings, Vol. XIII

For this week's ratings, I made a significant overhaul with how I compute the raw metric. I did this because I felt that there was enough error after last week's ratings, that I could only agree with 75-80% of my Top 50. I didn't feel that was good enough so I made a change. I'm not sure how I feel about this modification yet, but I think it's a step in the right direction. Arizona's second loss of the season drops them to #2, allowing for Florida to return to #1 in my rankings. Here is my latest Top 50 through games played on Tuesday, 2/18:

Rank Prev.
Rank
TEAM Record Weighted
Metric
Raw
Metric
AP
Rank
1 3 Florida (23-2, 12-0) 4.400 3 2
2 1 Arizona (23-2, 10-2) 10.600 1 4
3 5 Syracuse (25-0, 12-0) 11.841 12 1
4 2 Villanova (23-3, 11-2) 13.413 9 9
5 4 Iowa (19-6, 8-4) 15.550 2 15
6 7 Wichita St (27-0, 14-0) 16.000 16 3
7 10 Louisville (22-4, 11-2) 21.300 4 11
8 9 Creighton (21-4, 11-2) 25.072 13 11
9 15 Cincinnati (23-3, 12-1) 26.063 25 7
10 19 Kentucky (20-6, 10-3) 27.390 7 18
11 6 Pittsburgh (20-6, 8-5) 28.250 10 28
12 17 Virginia (22-5, 13-1) 28.588 20 14
13 16 Kansas (20-6, 11-2) 29.050 19 8
14 14 Memphis (19-6, 8-4) 30.750 25 22
15 32 N Carolina (18-7, 8-4) 31.575 18 26
16 18 San Diego St (23-2, 12-1) 31.881 34 6
17 8 Michigan St (21-5, 10-3) 31.985 8 13
18 13 Duke (21-5, 10-3) 32.341 22 5
19 11 Iowa State (20-5, 8-5) 33.115 15 17
20 34 Oklahoma (19-7, 8-5) 34.920 55 31
21 12 UCLA (20-5, 9-3) 35.000 10 23
22 20 Michigan (18-7, 10-3) 35.708 20 20
23 23 Connecticut (20-5, 8-4) 36.580 16 21
24 21 Wisconsin (21-5, 8-5) 38.484 4 16
25 22 Ohio State (20-6, 7-6) 39.834 6 24
26 29 Texas (20-6, 9-4) 41.607 30 19
27 24 George Washington (20-6, 8-4) 41.631 31 NR
28 28 Saint Louis (23-2, 10-0) 42.000 42 10
29 40 VCU (20-6, 8-3) 43.045 34 33
30 26 Colorado (19-7, 8-5) 44.240 29 NR
31 30 Gonzaga (23-4, 13-1) 47.600 27 25
32 31 Baylor (17-9, 5-8) 50.914 36 NR
33 NR Minnesota (17-9, 6-7) 53.162 38 NR
34 37 New Mexico (19-5, 10-2) 54.152 43 32
35 42 Marquette (15-10, 7-5) 54.733 46 NR
36 35 California (17-8, 8-4) 55.711 44 NR
37 44 Arizona St (19-6, 8-4) 55.838 24 27
38 27 Oklahoma St (16-10, 4-9) 56.953 13 NR
39 33 Stanford (16-8, 7-5) 57.483 41 NR
40 39 Arkansas (16-9, 5-7) 58.002 28 NR
41 25 SMU (20-6, 9-4) 59.489 44 28
42 NR U Mass (20-5, 7-4) 59.696 37 NR
43 36 Kansas St (17-8, 7-5) 60.501 31 34
44 47 Xavier (17-8, 7-5) 63.383 48 NR
45 NR Florida St (15-11, 6-8) 64.799 39 NR
46 46 Georgetown (15-10, 6-7) 64.899 56 NR
47 NR St Josephs (17-7, 7-3) 65.280 51 NR
48 NR Clemson (16-9, 7-6) 65.999 54 NR
49 NR St Johns (18-9, 8-6) 66.025 33 NR
50 NR Nebraska (14-10, 6-6) 66.093 61 NR

Maryland Update: Not much change from last week, as the Terps (15-12, 7-7) drop 1 spot from 64th to 65th. Their next game is home against Syracuse, which may now be winnable since they just lost a home game to BC (note: since that game was played on Wednesday, 2/19; it is not included in these ratings). I think Maryland has to win this game to even be in the conversation of a bubble team.

Thursday, February 13, 2014

2013-14 Statistical College Basketball Rankings, Vol. XII

Here are my top 50 college basketball ratings through games played on Wednesday, 2/12:

Rank Prev.
Rank
TEAM Record Weighted
Metric
Raw
Metric
AP
Rank
1 1 Arizona (23-1, 10-1) 4.7 1 2
2 3 Villanova (22-2, 10-1) 5.2 2 6
3 2 Florida (22-2, 11-0) 6.9 4 3
4 4 Iowa (18-6, 7-4) 7.45 3 16
5 5 Syracuse (24-0, 11-0) 15.82 17 1
6 7 Pittsburgh (20-5, 8-4) 17.75 9 25
7 6 Wichita St (26-0, 13-0) 18 18 4
8 10 Michigan St (20-4, 9-2) 22.487 5 9
9 9 Creighton (19-4, 9-2) 23.012 19 18
10 12 Louisville (19-4, 8-2) 24.25 12 13
11 11 Iowa State (18-5, 6-5) 24.505 15 11
12 17 UCLA (18-5, 7-3) 25.05 11 28
13 15 Duke (19-5, 8-3) 25.575 14 8
14 14 Memphis (19-5, 8-3) 26.087 20 20
15 19 Cincinnati (22-3, 11-1) 26.959 35 10
16 13 Kansas (18-6, 9-2) 27.232 23 7
17 18 Virginia (20-5, 11-1) 29.262 13 17
18 16 San Diego St (21-2, 10-1) 30.311 33 5
19 20 Kentucky (19-5, 9-2) 30.37 8 14
20 27 Michigan (18-6, 10-2) 31.999 16 15
21 26 Wisconsin (19-5, 6-5) 33.875 10 21
22 21 Ohio State (19-6, 6-6) 34.45 6 22
23 25 Connecticut (19-5, 7-4) 34.674 27 24
24 23 George Washington (19-5, 7-3) 37.54 22 31
25 33 SMU (19-5, 8-3) 41.182 32 23
26 31 Colorado (18-6, 7-4) 41.918 26 NR
27 8 Oklahoma St (16-8, 4-7) 41.984 7 30
28 29 Saint Louis (22-2, 9-0) 42 42 12
29 30 Texas (19-5, 8-3) 42.131 46 19
30 32 Gonzaga (21-4, 11-1) 42.8 21 27
31 24 Baylor (15-9, 3-8) 42.875 53 NR
32 34 N Carolina (16-7, 6-4) 43.009 30 34
33 28 Stanford (15-8, 6-5) 43.243 28 NR
34 22 Oklahoma (18-7, 7-5) 46.932 34 26
35 35 California (16-8, 7-4) 47.01 38 NR
36 47 Kansas St (17-7, 7-4) 49.553 54 34
37 36 New Mexico (18-5, 9-2) 51.371 31 29
38 37 BYU (17-9, 9-4) 54.958 24 NR
39 41 Arkansas (15-8, 4-6) 54.995 47 NR
40 43 VCU (20-5, 8-2) 56.244 67 NR
41 NR Texas Tech (13-11, 5-6) 56.264 79 NR
42 40 Marquette (14-10, 6-5) 57.31 59 NR
43 NR LSU (15-8, 6-5) 59.172 65 NR
44 39 Arizona St (18-6, 7-4) 59.376 29 34
45 50 W Virginia (15-10, 7-5) 59.392 51 NR
46 NR Georgetown (15-9, 6-6) 60.183 57 NR
47 NR Xavier (17-7, 7-4) 61.123 44 NR
48 46 Dayton (17-8, 5-5) 61.471 48 NR
49 49 Missouri (16-7, 4-6) 62.404 36 NR
50 42 Oregon (15-8, 3-8) 62.65 37 NR

Maryland Update: With a home win against Florida State (previously 48th), the Terps have moved to their highest point in my ratings, currently at 64th. A respectable 8-point road loss to Virginia gives further belief that this team may be turning the corner. However, in order to climb into the Top 50, they will likely have to win one of their three big games left (2/15 at Duke, 2/24 vs. Syracuse, or 3/9 vs. Virginia).