Winter Doldrums

Today marks the 11th consecutive day without snow, or any precipitation for that matter, here on the Wasatch Bench. We remain at a measly 8.5" of snow for the month, and aside from shaded areas, our snow pack is gone. So far for the season, I have observed 42.5" of snow. A long-term climatology for seasonal snowfall is not known for my neighborhood, however it is believed to be around 105". Data exists for the past two winters: 63.5" was observed during the winter of 2011-12, and a whopping 153" was observed last winter. The latest 7-day total precipitation graphic from HPC shows a real dearth of moisture over Salt Lake City.

12z ECMWF Deterministic analysis indicates precipitation over the region for Days 6-9, but likely in the form of rain. It is quite possible we go through the remainder of January without any additional snowfall. After examining observed snowfall here over the past two years from February through April, I found these monthly snowfall averages:

• February: 18.25"
• March: 10.25"
• April: 4.50"

Assuming we achieve those averages and adding that to the 42.5" thus far; that would result in a total seasonal snowfall for 2013-14 of  75.5" - nearly 30" below normal. That would easily surpass my all-time personal record for seasonal snowfall of ~62" set in 1995-96, but forgive me if it leaves me wanting more. I mean after all, I am nearly a mile up in elevation....on the windward side of the Wasatch Mountains...and downwind of a large lake that doesn't freeze. It's the classic curse of a snow lover. Even worse, my former residence of Grand Forks, ND is on the verge of surpassing me in snowfall this season. Were it not for the fact that it is typically 30 degrees warmer here, I would feel shame.

Hopefully the pattern changes in a hurry. This is not the time of year you want a dry spell to develop in this part of the country. The latest drought monitor is not encouraging (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/20140121/20140121_west_trd.jpg), neither is the percent of normal precipitation since Christmas Day.

It is pretty clear where the mean position of the jet stream is - way to the north of the southwestern U.S., grazing the Pacific Northwest. The response to this predominate western ridge is a frequent eastern trough, hence the frequent bouts of cold weather across the eastern half of the country. With such a prolonged drought centered over California and Nevada, it becomes increasingly difficult through time to "flip the switch". February and early March will need to feature an active storm pattern over Utah in order to have any chance of a near normal seasonal snowfall. Though at this point, I am just hoping to a.) break my personal snowfall record, and b.) beat Grand Forks.