2013-14 Statistical College Basketball Rankings, Vol. X

Here are my latest college basketball rankings through games played on Sunday, 1/26:

Rank	Prev. Rank	TEAM	Record	Weighted Metric	Raw Metric	AP Rank
1	1	Arizona	(20-0, 7-0)	1	1	1
2	5	Iowa	(16-4, 5-2)	8.4	4	15
3	4	Florida	(17-2, 6-0)	9.8	5	3
4	8	Pittsburgh	(18-2, 6-1)	9.9	2	18
5	2	Villanova	(17-2, 6-1)	9.975	3	9
6	7	Wichita St	(21-0, 8-0)	13	13	4
7	9	Syracuse	(19-0, 6-0)	14.487	16	2
8	11	Oklahoma St	(16-3, 4-2)	16.55	6	8
9	6	Michigan St	(18-2, 7-1)	16.75	9	7
10	13	San Diego St	(18-1, 7-0)	17	17	5
11	10	Louisville	(17-3, 6-1)	17.25	12	12
12	12	Wisconsin	(17-3, 4-3)	19.357	15	14
13	15	Memphis	(15-4, 5-2)	20.525	19	22
14	17	Iowa State	(15-3, 3-3)	22.17	18	16
15	18	UCLA	(16-4, 5-2)	22.7	14	28
16	16	Cincinnati	(19-2, 8-0)	23.381	28	13
17	14	Kentucky	(15-4, 5-1)	24	10	11
18	26	Creighton	(17-3, 7-1)	24.619	27	20
19	28	Michigan	(15-4, 7-0)	26.293	23	10
20	27	Kansas	(15-4, 6-0)	26.697	30	6
21	31	Texas	(16-4, 5-2)	29.442	29	25
22	3	Ohio State	(16-4, 3-4)	29.7	8	24
23	21	Virginia	(15-5, 6-1)	30.05	7	29
24	25	Duke	(16-4, 5-2)	31.17	11	17
25	24	George Washington	(16-3, 4-1)	31.917	24	30
26	29	Oklahoma	(16-4, 5-2)	35.642	34	23
27	41	SMU	(16-4, 5-2)	36.8	36	34
28	20	Colorado	(15-6, 4-4)	37.65	20	NR
29	40	Saint Louis	(18-2, 5-0)	38	38	19
30	32	Connecticut	(16-4, 4-3)	39.196	43	26
31	30	U Mass	(17-2, 4-1)	39.25	32	21
32	19	Minnesota	(15-6, 4-4)	40.546	39	30
33	42	New Mexico	(15-4, 6-1)	40.723	31	35
34	22	Baylor	(13-6, 1-5)	41.912	49	NR
35	23	Florida St	(13-6, 4-3)	43.562	45	NR
36	39	N Carolina	(12-7, 2-4)	46.779	26	NR
37	35	Stanford	(13-6, 4-3)	47	40	NR
38	37	Xavier	(15-5, 5-2)	48.778	41	NR
39	33	Gonzaga	(18-3, 8-1)	49.1	35	27
40	36	Arkansas	(13-6, 2-4)	49.92	44	NR
41	44	Marquette	(11-9, 3-4)	50.054	53	NR
42	48	Providence	(15-5, 5-2)	52.637	52	NR
43	43	Boise State	(14-6, 4-3)	55.5	54	NR
44	34	California	(14-6, 5-2)	55.854	42	NR
45	46	BYU	(13-9, 5-4)	57.269	22	NR
46	45	Oregon	(14-5, 2-5)	58.6	48	NR
47	NR	Kansas St	(14-6, 4-3)	58.761	55	30
48	NR	Missouri	(15-4, 3-3)	58.97	37	NR
49	47	WI-Green Bay	(17-3, 7-0)	59.615	59	30
50	NR	VCU	(16-4, 4-1)	60.837	68	NR

Only three new teams in the Top 50:  Kansas State, Missouri, and VCU replaced Tennessee (51st), Harvard (52nd), and Dayton (56th). However, numerous teams made substantial climbs/drops within the Top 50. The most notable team to regress was Ohio State, dropping 19 spots following their loss to Nebraska. Colorado, Minnesota, Baylor, Florida State, and Cal all made significant drops this week. Big winners this week were Creighton (W @ Villanova), Michigan (W @ Michigan St.), and Texas (W vs. K-State, W @ Baylor). SMU and Saint Louis also had big jumps, rising 14 and 11 spots; respectively.

Looking beyond the Top 50, I see a few new teams on the cusp of cracking the Top 50 for the first time in the near future. Watch out for Utah (14-6, 3-5...57th), Richmond (14-6, 4-1...60th), Toledo (17-2, 5-1...62nd), Wyoming (13-6, 4-2...67th), and Indiana State (16-4, 7-1...80th). Also, I would not be surprised to see the following teams to return to the Top 50 soon: Tennessee (51st), Harvard (52nd), Arizona State (53rd), Louisiana Tech (55th), Southern Mississippi (66th), and Mississippi (68th).

Weekly Maryland Update: This week I have Maryland ranked 77th, dropping five spots from last week. The Terps responded fairly well after their disappointing loss at NC State, by hanging in there with a superior Pitt squad. Maryland lost by 4, and were in it until the final minute. This is a big week for Maryland if they have any aspirations of even making the NIT. Maryland (11-9, 3-4) must win home vs. Miami (87th) and at Virginia Tech (186th). After that, their schedule is brutal, with probably no more than three winnable games.

Winter Doldrums

Today marks the 11th consecutive day without snow, or any precipitation for that matter, here on the Wasatch Bench. We remain at a measly 8.5" of snow for the month, and aside from shaded areas, our snow pack is gone. So far for the season, I have observed 42.5" of snow. A long-term climatology for seasonal snowfall is not known for my neighborhood, however it is believed to be around 105". Data exists for the past two winters: 63.5" was observed during the winter of 2011-12, and a whopping 153" was observed last winter. The latest 7-day total precipitation graphic from HPC shows a real dearth of moisture over Salt Lake City.

12z ECMWF Deterministic analysis indicates precipitation over the region for Days 6-9, but likely in the form of rain. It is quite possible we go through the remainder of January without any additional snowfall. After examining observed snowfall here over the past two years from February through April, I found these monthly snowfall averages:

• February: 18.25"
• March: 10.25"
• April: 4.50"

Assuming we achieve those averages and adding that to the 42.5" thus far; that would result in a total seasonal snowfall for 2013-14 of  75.5" - nearly 30" below normal. That would easily surpass my all-time personal record for seasonal snowfall of ~62" set in 1995-96, but forgive me if it leaves me wanting more. I mean after all, I am nearly a mile up in elevation....on the windward side of the Wasatch Mountains...and downwind of a large lake that doesn't freeze. It's the classic curse of a snow lover. Even worse, my former residence of Grand Forks, ND is on the verge of surpassing me in snowfall this season. Were it not for the fact that it is typically 30 degrees warmer here, I would feel shame.

Hopefully the pattern changes in a hurry. This is not the time of year you want a dry spell to develop in this part of the country. The latest drought monitor is not encouraging (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/20140121/20140121_west_trd.jpg), neither is the percent of normal precipitation since Christmas Day.

It is pretty clear where the mean position of the jet stream is - way to the north of the southwestern U.S., grazing the Pacific Northwest. The response to this predominate western ridge is a frequent eastern trough, hence the frequent bouts of cold weather across the eastern half of the country. With such a prolonged drought centered over California and Nevada, it becomes increasingly difficult through time to "flip the switch". February and early March will need to feature an active storm pattern over Utah in order to have any chance of a near normal seasonal snowfall. Though at this point, I am just hoping to a.) break my personal snowfall record, and b.) beat Grand Forks.

2013-14 Statistical College Basketball Rankings, Vol. IX

I finally found a chance to update my basketball ratings, after about a week and a half since the last update. Rankings below are through games played on Sunday, 1/19. With the #5 offense and the #3 defense in the country, the Arizona Wildcats remain #1 overall.

Rank	Prev. Rank	TEAM	Record	Weighted Metric	2013-14 Metric Rank	AP Rank
1	1	Arizona	(18-0, 5-0)	1	1	1
2	4	Villanova	(16-1, 5-0)	3.3	2	4
3	3	Ohio State	(15-3, 2-3)	7.75	5	17
4	7	Florida	(15-2, 4-0)	8	3	6
5	2	Iowa	(15-3, 4-1)	8.087	6	10
6	11	Michigan St	(17-1, 6-0)	9.595	8	3
7	17	Wichita St	(19-0, 6-0)	12	12	5
8	8	Pittsburgh	(16-2, 4-1)	13.3	7	20
9	6	Syracuse	(18-0, 5-0)	13.66	15	2
10	14	Louisville	(16-3, 5-1)	17.85	10	12
11	13	Oklahoma St	(15-3, 3-2)	17.95	4	11
12	5	Wisconsin	(16-2, 3-2)	18.269	16	9
13	9	San Diego St	(16-1, 5-0)	20	20	7
14	15	Kentucky	(13-4, 3-1)	20.145	11	14
15	23	Memphis	(13-4, 3-2)	23.825	25	23
16	18	Cincinnati	(17-2, 6-0)	24.356	29	15
17	12	Iowa State	(14-3, 2-3)	26.144	18	16
18	19	UCLA	(14-4, 3-2)	26.5	14	31
19	27	Minnesota	(14-5, 3-3)	26.875	27	NR
20	10	Colorado	(15-4, 4-2)	27.15	13	30
21	31	Virginia	(13-5, 4-1)	30.7	9	38
22	16	Baylor	(13-4, 1-3)	30.949	33	24
23	39	Florida St	(12-5, 3-2)	32	32	NR
24	26	George Washington	(15-3, 3-1)	32.85	21	33
25	22	Duke	(14-4, 3-2)	33.127	22	18
26	24	Creighton	(15-3, 5-1)	33.3	31	26
27	36	Kansas	(13-4, 4-0)	33.813	43	8
28	33	Michigan	(13-4, 5-0)	34.026	24	21
29	NR	Oklahoma	(14-4, 3-2)	36.92	36	25
30	47	U Mass	(16-1, 3-0)	37	37	13
31	43	Texas	(14-4, 3-2)	37.714	39	35
32	NR	Connecticut	(14-4, 2-3)	38.821	40	27
33	29	Gonzaga	(16-3, 6-1)	40.65	23	28
34	34	California	(14-4, 5-0)	41.05	28	29
35	46	Stanford	(12-5, 3-2)	41.4	34	NR
36	20	Arkansas	(12-5, 1-3)	42.334	35	NR
37	40	Xavier	(14-4, 4-1)	42.726	30	36
38	21	Harvard	(14-2, 1-0)	44	44	32
39	30	N Carolina	(11-6, 1-3)	46.975	26	NR
40	49	Saint Louis	(17-2, 4-0)	48	48	19
41	41	S Methodist	(14-4, 3-2)	50	50	37
42	35	New Mexico	(13-4, 4-1)	50.361	38	38
43	37	Boise State	(13-5, 3-2)	50.5	46	NR
44	25	Marquette	(10-8, 2-3)	51.187	56	NR
45	32	Oregon	(13-4, 1-4)	51.3	45	NR
46	NR	BYU	(13-7, 5-2)	52.016	19	NR
47	NR	WI-Green Bay	(15-3, 5-0)	53.38	51	NR
48	NR	Providence	(13-5, 3-2)	55.08	54	NR
49	44	Tennessee	(11-6, 2-2)	55.449	17	NR
50	45	Dayton	(13-5, 1-2)	58.2	41	NR

A couple of oddities I noticed with this update. I had Iowa one spot ahead of Ohio St., now they are two spots below them....after beating them in Columbus. I'm not sure why Ohio St. stayed at #3. Somehow Syracuse dropped three spots to #9, despite remaining undefeated....again, I don't know why. Dropping out of the Top 50 this week were #28 Missouri (52nd), #38 Louisiana Tech (63rd), #42 Wake Forest (56th), #48 Indiana (55th), and #50 Hawai'i (98th...ouch!); they were replaced by Oklahoma, Connecticut, BYU, WI-Green Bay, and Providence.

5 Teams I Expect to Continue Rising:
#21 Virginia.....#27 Kansas.....#28 Michigan.....#30 UMass.....#40 Saint Louis

5 Teams I Expect to Continue Falling:
#17 Iowa State.....#22 Baylor.....#39 North Carolina.....#44 Marquette.....#45 Oregon

Maryland Terrapins Update
Maryland had their best victory of the season last week, a home victory against Notre Dame (currently 65th). Their early season neutral court win over Providence is looking better and better too. The ND win helped the Terps rise to #72 in my rankings. Their defense is surprisingly good considering they refuse to play perimeter defense; I have them 39th in the country. However their offense is a disappointing 87th. I am not expecting Maryland to continue rising towards the Top 50 though. This team has been inconsistent all season, and they can not win on the road. Maryland's only true road win was an 88-80 win at Boston College. I was hoping they would beat NC State in Raleigh, but a poor second half prevented that from happening. Next up is a home game against Pitt.

2013-14 Statistical College Basketball Rankings, Vol. VIII

Below are my Top 50 rankings through games played on 1/7. Dropping out from last week were #30 Illinois, #33 St. John's, #38 UConn, #41 Butler, and #48 LSU. They were replaced by Louisiana Tech, SMU, Wake Forest, Indiana, and Saint Louis.

Rank	Prev. Rank	TEAM	Record	Weighted Metric	2013-14 Metric Rank	AP Rank
1	2	Arizona	(15-0, 2-0)	2	2	1
2	3	Iowa	(12-3, 1-1)	3.4	1	20
3	4	Ohio State	(15-1, 2-1)	5	4	3
4	1	Villanova	(13-1, 2-0)	6.4	6	8
5	6	Wisconsin	(15-0, 4-0)	8.44	9	4
6	7	Syracuse	(15-0, 2-0)	9.64	10	2
7	11	Florida	(11-2, 0-0)	10.7	5	10
8	17	Pittsburgh	(14-1, 2-0)	10.75	7	30
9	21	San Diego St	(12-1, 1-0)	12	12	13
10	10	Colorado	(13-2, 2-0)	13.25	8	15
11	14	Michigan St	(14-1, 3-0)	14.45	14	5
12	13	Iowa State	(14-0, 2-0)	15.56	17	9
13	5	Oklahoma St	(12-2, 0-1)	16.65	3	11
14	8	Louisville	(13-2, 2-0)	17	16	12
15	15	Kentucky	(10-3, 0-0)	17.652	13	14
16	9	Baylor	(12-2, 0-1)	22.225	29	7
17	18	Wichita St	(15-0, 2-0)	23	23	6
18	24	Cincinnati	(14-2, 3-0)	24.362	22	26
19	35	UCLA	(12-2, 1-0)	25.5	25	28
20	28	Arkansas	(10-3, 0-0)	27.75	24	41
21	25	Harvard	(13-1, 0-0)	28	28	31
22	23	Duke	(12-3, 1-1)	28.95	19	16
23	12	Memphis	(10-3, 1-1)	29.662	34	24
24	50	Creighton	(13-2, 3-0)	33	33	27
25	46	Marquette	(9-6, 1-1)	33.85	27	NR
26	42	George Washington	(12-2, 0-0)	33.975	31	37
27	16	Minnesota	(12-3, 1-1)	35	35	NR
28	20	Missouri	(12-1, 0-0)	35.625	30	21
29	34	Gonzaga	(14-2, 4-0)	36.187	26	22
30	22	N Carolina	(10-4, 0-1)	37.647	20	29
31	36	Virginia	(10-4, 1-0)	37.9	21	NR
32	31	Oregon	(13-1, 1-1)	38	38	17
33	43	Michigan	(10-4, 2-0)	39.2	15	35
34	40	California	(10-4, 1-0)	39.225	37	NR
35	37	New Mexico	(10-3, 1-0)	40.213	36	NR
36	26	Kansas	(9-4, 0-0)	41.808	47	18
37	29	Boise State	(11-3, 1-0)	42.5	39	NR
38	NR	LA Tech	(12-3, 0-0)	42.75	18	NR
39	27	Florida St	(9-4, 0-1)	44	44	NR
40	39	Xavier	(12-3, 2-0)	44.153	43	38
41	NR	S Methodist	(11-3, 1-1)	45	45	36
42	NR	Wake Forest	(11-3, 1-0)	46	46	NR
43	19	Texas	(11-3, 0-1)	46.75	42	NR
44	47	Tennessee	(10-4, 1-0)	48.563	11	NR
45	44	Dayton	(12-3, 0-0)	49.953	40	NR
46	49	Stanford	(9-4, 0-1)	51	51	NR
47	32	U Mass	(12-1, 0-0)	52.053	56	19
48	NR	Indiana	(10-5, 0-2)	54	41	NR
49	NR	Saint Louis	(14-2, 1-0)	54	54	33
50	45	Hawai'i	(11-3, 0-0)	55	55	NR

Maryland Update: After a disappointing drop to 107th last week, the Terps have begun their slow climb, checking in at 92nd this week. Overall team play has improved, not surprisingly, since the return of PG Seth Allen. I have their defense ranked 51st, but offense is just 95th. If they can cut down the turnovers and do a better job getting to the line, they may gradually work their way to the Top 50. more importantly, they need some key wins. Based off of my ratings, they have yet to beat a Top 100 team, with their recent win against 108th Georgia Tech their best win of the season.