Wednesday, December 18, 2013

2013-14 Statistical College Basketball Rankings, Vol. V

I continue to decrease the weighting of last year's ratings, down to only about 25%, while this year's metric is now worth around 65% (recruiting around 10%). This has benefited teams like: Iowa, Minnesota, San Diego State, Arkansas, BYU, and Harvard. Conversely, it negatively impacts teams like: Kansas, Duke, Oregon, Indiana, Missouri, and UConn. Speaking of UConn, I wouldn't buy into their #10 AP ranking too much. With the #64 offense and #53 defense, I feel like their 9-0 record has a high degree of luck factored in. It looks like the most improved team from last week was Boise State, who jumped from unranked to 37th, thanks to having the #10 offense in the country. Dropping out of the Top 50 this week were: #37 VCU (52nd), #40 Belmont (68th), #47 George Washington (51st), and #49 Charlotte (107th). They were replaced by Boise State, Harvard, Stanford, and Creighton. Here are my rankings through games played on Tuesday, 12/17:

Rank Prev.
Rank
TEAM Record Weighted
Metric
2013-14
Metric Rank
AP Rank
1 2 Arizona (11-0, 0-0) 9.59 7 1
2 3 Memphis (7-2, 0-0) 10.452 5 15
3 7 Ohio State (10-0, 0-0) 10.74 8 3
4 1 Louisville (10-1, 0-0) 11.623 15 6
5 4 Florida (8-2, 0-0) 12.122 6 16
6 5 Oklahoma St (10-1, 0-0) 12.148 2 7
7 8 Syracuse (10-0, 0-0) 13.81 16 2
8 9 Wisconsin (12-0, 0-0) 14.718 12 4
9 10 Villanova (10-0, 0-0) 18.58 3 8
10 17 Iowa (10-2, 0-0) 19.945 1 25
11 14 Colorado (10-1, 0-0) 20.813 4 20
12 13 Wichita St (11-0, 0-0) 21.42 11 11
13 15 Iowa State (8-0, 0-0) 21.963 18 17
14 12 UCLA (9-1, 0-0) 24.742 17 26
15 16 Michigan St (9-1, 0-0) 24.83 23 5
16 23 Minnesota (9-2, 0-0) 27.77 19 NR
17 22 Kentucky (8-3, 0-0) 28.1 13 19
18 25 San Diego St (7-1, 0-0) 28.897 21 24
19 6 Pittsburgh (10-1, 0-0) 30.003 22 27
20 30 Arkansas (7-2, 0-0) 31.22 9 NR
21 26 Marquette (7-4, 0-0) 31.278 30 NR
22 11 Kansas (7-3, 0-0) 32.1 47 18
23 18 Baylor (8-1, 0-0) 32.357 40 12
24 19 Duke (8-2, 0-0) 33.771 54 9
25 20 Oregon (10-0, 0-0) 34.29 37 13
26 31 Gonzaga (10-1, 0-0) 34.995 35 21
27 34 BYU (8-4, 0-0) 36.471 20 NR
28 42 St Marys (8-0, 0-0) 38.55 38 28
29 24 Indiana (8-3, 0-0) 38.878 49 NR
30 21 Missouri (10-0, 0-0) 39.718 46 23
31 33 Michigan (6-4, 0-0) 39.824 14 33
32 28 N Carolina (7-2, 0-0) 42.449 10 14
33 29 Connecticut (9-0, 0-0) 42.752 57 10
34 32 U Mass (9-0, 0-0) 43.935 34 22
35 38 Butler (8-2, 0-0) 44.098 43 NR
36 43 California (8-3, 0-0) 45.385 31 NR
37 NR Boise State (8-2, 0-0) 46.64 33 NR
38 27 New Mexico (7-3, 0-0) 47.746 29 NR
39 39 Virginia (7-3, 0-0) 48.748 25 NR
40 36 Cincinnati (8-2, 0-0) 49.112 69 NR
41 35 Dayton (8-2, 0-0) 50.366 28 NR
42 41 LSU (6-2, 0-0) 50.592 45 NR
43 NR Harvard (9-1, 0-0) 51.02 24 30
44 NR Stanford (7-2, 0-0) 51.06 50 NR
45 50 Texas (9-1, 0-0) 51.79 39 NR
46 45 Saint Louis (9-2, 0-0) 52.38 58 NR
47 NR Creighton (8-2, 0-0) 52.91 51 NR
48 48 Florida St (7-3, 0-0) 54.86 36 NR
49 44 Mississippi (7-2, 0-0) 57.143 56 NR
50 46 Oklahoma (10-1, 0-0) 57.323 60 30

I expect the Christmas week ratings to include a weight of 75-80% for this year's metric rank. Barring any upsets, this should continue to help previously mentioned teams, as well as Dayton, Virginia, and Michigan.

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