Wednesday, December 11, 2013

2013-14 Statistical College Basketball Rankings, Vol. IV

Below are my Top 50 rankings through games played on Monday, 12/9. Thanks to the schizophrenic start to the North Carolina basketball season, I noticed a flaw in how harsh I penalize teams for bad losses. The end result had Carolina rated 51st. Yes they lost home to Belmont and away to UAB, but they beat Louisville home and Michigan State away. Surely that means they are better than 51st. Before, a good win home/away was worth 'x'/'2x'; respectively. Conversely, a bad loss home/away was worth '-2x'/'-x'. Now the bad losses are basically worth '-x'/'-x/2'; respectively for home/away. So after invoking the 'Carolina Rule' I feel these rankings are a more accurate representation. The side affect is that a team may move up, despite having an average week, or not even playing at all. Also, I continue the trend of decreasing the weights of last year's ranks as well as offseason recruiting rankings, and increasing the value of this year's metric rank - which is now 52% of the weighted metric. Overall, the Top 50 is showing signs of stabilization with only two new teams this week. North Carolina and Charlotte replaced Stanford and Arizona State. Meanwhile, Maryland remains unable to flirt with the Top 50, currently rated 66th.

Rank Prev.
Rank
TEAM Record Weighted
Metric
2013-14
Metric Rank
AP Rank
1 10 Louisville (8-1, 0-0) 6.643 8 6
2 1 Arizona (9-0, 0-0) 11.755 10 1
3 5 Memphis (6-1, 0-0) 12.313 5 16
4 12 Florida (6-2, 0-0) 16.169 9 19
5 6 Oklahoma St (8-1, 0-0) 16.28 2 7
6 4 Pittsburgh (9-0, 0-0) 16.61 14 28
7 2 Ohio State (8-0, 0-0) 16.85 17 3
8 3 Syracuse (9-0, 0-0) 17.265 24 2
9 11 Wisconsin (10-0, 0-0) 18.45 21 4
10 7 Villanova (9-0, 0-0) 20.53 3 10
11 8 Kansas (6-2, 0-0) 20.679 31 13
12 20 UCLA (8-1, 0-0) 22.355 11 26
13 16 Wichita St (9-0, 0-0) 24.13 7 12
14 22 Colorado (9-1, 0-0) 24.548 4 21
15 9 Iowa State (7-0, 0-0) 24.727 26 17
16 13 Michigan St (7-1, 0-0) 26.095 22 5
17 24 Iowa (10-1, 0-0) 27.07 1 23
18 26 Baylor (8-1, 0-0) 27.342 34 14
19 14 Duke (7-2, 0-0) 27.794 60 8
20 21 Oregon (8-0, 0-0) 29.805 30 15
21 40 Missouri (9-0, 0-0) 29.81 32 24
22 19 Kentucky (7-2, 0-0) 30.415 16 11
23 29 Minnesota (8-2, 0-0) 31.585 19 NR
24 17 Indiana (7-2, 0-0) 33.014 46 35
25 15 San Diego St (7-1, 0-0) 34.565 23 25
26 28 Marquette (5-4, 0-0) 34.779 41 NR
27 42 New Mexico (7-1, 0-0) 35.561 13 27
28 NR N Carolina (6-2, 0-0) 35.653 6 18
29 18 Connecticut (9-0, 0-0) 35.671 64 9
30 27 Arkansas (6-2, 0-0) 35.805 15 NR
31 32 Gonzaga (8-1, 0-0) 37.983 29 20
32 39 U Mass (8-0, 0-0) 38.302 36 22
33 25 Michigan (6-3, 0-0) 38.338 12 30
34 30 BYU (7-3, 0-0) 39.03 33 NR
35 23 Dayton (7-2, 0-0) 41.331 37 32
36 33 Cincinnati (7-1, 0-0) 41.555 47 33
37 37 VCU (8-2, 0-0) 43.162 58 31
38 38 Butler (7-2, 0-0) 44.224 45 NR
39 34 Virginia (7-3, 0-0) 44.964 18 NR
40 44 Belmont (8-2, 0-0) 45.808 77 NR
41 46 LSU (5-2, 0-0) 47.749 39 NR
42 41 St Marys (7-0, 0-0) 48.415 55 35
43 31 California (6-3, 0-0) 49.929 25 NR
44 48 Mississippi (6-2, 0-0) 50.654 48 NR
45 36 Saint Louis (8-2, 0-0) 51.57 57 NR
46 35 Oklahoma (8-1, 0-0) 52.29 51 39
47 50 George Washington (8-1, 0-0) 54.377 40 37
48 47 Florida St (6-3, 0-0) 55.35 27 NR
49 NR Charlotte (7-2, 0-0) 55.357 94 NR
50 43 Texas (8-1, 0-0) 57.175 43 NR

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