2012-13 NCAA Basketball Rankings - Vol. V

Below are the rankings through games played on Sunday, January 27th. There was a lot of shuffling around, but as of now there seems to be four distinct groups:

Group A: Teams ranked 1-6 are in my view the elite teams that will fight for #1 seeds.
Group B: Teams ranked 7-14 are all pretty good teams and I think a majority of the #2 and #3 seeds will be from this group.
Group C: Teams ranked 15-34 are likely tournament teams but are so close in talent that I could see a lot of shuffling amongst these 20 teams over the next month or so.
Group D: Teams ranked 35-50 are primarily composed of teams that are just now getting hot (e.g. Villanova, La Salle, St. John's) , teams that are just now getting cold (e.g. Illinois, Notre Dame, Wyoming), or stagnant bubble teams (e.g. Oklahoma St., BYU, Saint Louis). These teams still have work to do to prove they are tourney teams.

Rank	Last	Team	Record	RPI	Conference
1	1	Kansas	(18-1, 6-0)	2	Big 12
2	5	Michigan	(19-1, 6-1)	7	B1G
3	11	Florida	(16-2, 6-0)	5	SEC
4	3	Indiana	(18-2, 6-1)	20	B1G
5	4	Duke	(17-2, 4-2)	1	ACC
6	8	Syracuse	(18-2, 6-1)	9	Big East
7	7	Gonzaga	(19-2, 6-0)	8	West Coast
8	17	Oregon	(18-2, 7-0)	19	PAC-12
9	16	Michigan St.	(17-4, 6-2)	12	B1G
10	10	Ohio St.	(15-4, 5-2)	24	B1G
11	6	Butler	(17-3, 4-1)	10	Atlantic 10
12	2	Louisville	(17-4, 5-3)	13	Big East
13	12	Arizona	(17-2, 5-2)	4	PAC-12
14	27	Miami	(15-3, 6-0)	3	ACC
15	21	Mississippi	(17-2, 6-0)	32	SEC
16	9	Minnesota	(15-5, 3-4)	11	B1G
17	32	Wichita St.	(19-2, 8-1)	16	Missouri Valley
18	18	UCLA	(16-5, 6-2)	33	PAC-12
19	13	San Diego St.	(16-4, 4-2)	29	Mountain West
20	33	Cincinnati	(16-4, 4-3)	25	Big East
21	22	New Mexico	(17-3, 4-1)	6	Mountain West
22	34	Pitt	(17-4, 5-3)	49	Big East
23	46	Wisconsin	(14-6, 5-2)	45	B1G
24	15	Creighton	(18-3, 7-2)	28	Missouri Valley
25	35	Georgetown	(14-4, 4-3)	39	Big East
26	26	Marquette	(14-4, 5-1)	18	Big East
27	41	Colorado St.	(16-4, 3-2)	22	Mountain West
28	14	NC State	(16-4, 5-2)	17	ACC
29	24	Missouri	(15-4, 4-2)	26	SEC
30	25	Baylor	(14-6, 5-2)	34	Big 12
31	38	UNLV	(15-4, 3-2)	15	Mountain West
32	50	St. Mary's	(17-4, 5-1)	59	West Coast
33	37	Memphis	(16-3, 5-0)	47	Conference-USA
34	19	VCU	(16-5, 4-2)	38	Atlantic 10
35	43	Iowa St.	(14-5, 4-2)	40	Big 12
36	20	Kansas St.	(15-4, 4-2)	37	Big 12
37	28	Connecticut	(13-6, 3-4)	30	Big East
38	39	Oklahoma St.	(13-5, 3-3)	44	Big 12
39	N/A	Villanova	(13-7, 4-3)	50	Big East
40	N/A	La Salle	(14-5, 4-2)	27	Atlantic 10
41	N/A	Arizona St.	(16-4, 5-2)	57	PAC-12
42	36	BYU	(16-6, 6-2)	42	West Coast
43	23	Illinois	(15-6, 2-5)	30	B1G
44	29	Notre Dame	(16-4, 4-3)	48	Big East
45	31	Wyoming	(15-4, 2-4)	54	Mountain West
46	N/A	Iowa	(13-6, 2-4)	78	B1G
47	N/A	Louisiana Tech	(18-3, 9-0)	43	WAC
48	N/A	St. John's	(12-7, 4-3)	53	Big East
49	44	Saint Louis	(14-5, 3-2)	69	Atlantic 10
50	N/A	Belmont	(17-4, 8-0)	14	Ohio Valley

Dropped from rankings: #30 Boise St., #40 Temple, #42 Utah St., #45 Texas A&M, #47 Evansville, #48 Washington, #49 Kentucky

Ground Blizzard

We are under a blizzard watch for ground blizzard conditions expected during the daytime Saturday. A ground blizzard is basically blizzard conditions in terms of high winds, but reduced visibilities due to mainly blowing snow as opposed to actual snowfall. This is classic North Dakota weather and I am looking forward to experiencing it. Hopefully it pans out and I can update this post with some pictures.

EDITED 1/27/2013:

Here  is a video I shot on the west end of town where ground blizzard conditions reduced visibility down to 1/8 mile at times:

Look At Those Diurnal Curves!

My previous post highlighted the non-typical diurnal curve that occurred here in GFK on the 15th, with temperatures generally rising from midnight to midnight.

As alluded to in the previous post, the opposite trend occurred on the 16th, with temperatures generally falling from midnight to midnight. Here is a look at the temperatures for 1/16:

For comparison, here is a comparison of January 15-16, 2013 observed temperatures versus the typical observed January temperatures over a two-day span:

As you can see, the temperature trend was fairly normal through the daylight hours on the 15th (albeit above average temperatures). Then the observed diurnal curve increased as opposed to decreased, before eventually crashing following passage of the cold front. Cold air advection continued through the day on the 16th, allowing for a fairly continuous drop in temperatures before leveling off during evening. Although this is kind of basic information, it is neat to see a graphical comparison of how westerly winds induced from a warm front can cause nocturnal maximum temperatures here; and how cold air advection of great enough magnitude can overcome the "typical" daily rise in temperatures caused by daylight.

Not Your Typical Diurnal Curve

Pretty neat weather ongoing here in GFK. Today we had a daytime high of 20°F. Then some snow moved through ahead of a warm front - coating the ground with a fresh dusting to half inch. And what a nice warm front it is, with a 1am temperature now at 37°F! Here is a copy of the surface map with a crude overlay of frontal positions at 0716Z. Notice that in the 15 minutes that elapsed before I grabbed the surface map for analysis, the cold front passed through and the temperature dropped 5°F in 15 minutes:

I forgot to hit publish earlier, so I will expand on this topic a btit more. Plenty of cold air up in northern Manitoba where it's currently -35°F with a wind chill of -64°F at Gillam (ASOS: CYGX)! Should be a steady free fall in temperatures through the day -- we'll fall below zero during the afternoon. By 11:59pm, if we can fall to -13°F we will achieve a diurnal temperature range of 50°F! The latest GFS-LAMP MOS takes us pretty close, but falling just shy with a low of -11°F. Here is an hourly look at temperatures since midnight Tuesday:

Obviously the "curve" will be reversed for 1/16, and when graphing the two days together, it will be neat to see one big diurnal curve over a two-day span, as opposed to the "normal" pair of diurnal curves over the two days.

2012-13 NCAA Basketball Rankings - Vol. IV

Here are my updated Top 50 rankings, through games played on 1/13/2013:

Rank	Last	Team	Record	RPI	Conference
1	4	Kansas	(14-1, 2-0)	3	Big 12
2	5	Louisville	(15-1, 3-0)	8	Big East
3	9	Indiana	(15-1, 3-0)	10	B1G
4	1	Duke	(15-1, 2-1)	1	ACC
5	2	Michigan	(16-1, 3-1)	7	B1G
6	8	Butler	(14-2, 2-0)	15	Atlantic 10
7	11	Gonzaga	(16-1, 3-0)	6	West Coast
8	12	Syracuse	(16-1, 4-0)	13	Big East
9	6	Minnesota	(15-2, 3-1)	4	B1G
10	7	Ohio St.	(13-3, 3-1)	27	B1G
11	14	Florida	(12-2, 2-0)	9	SEC
12	3	Arizona	(15-1, 3-1)	2	PAC-12
13	13	San Diego St.	(14-2, 2-0)	31	Mountain West
14	26	NC State	(14-2, 3-0)	12	ACC
15	18	Creighton	(16-1, 5-0)	19	Missouri Valley
16	20	Michigan St.	(13-3, 2-1)	20	B1G
17	41	Oregon	(14-2, 3-0)	26	PAC-12
18	28	UCLA	(14-3, 4-0)	34	PAC-12
19	27	VCU	(14-3, 2-0)	30	Atlantic 10
20	29	Kansas St.	(13-2, 2-0)	38	Big 12
21	47	Mississippi	(13-2, 2-0)	47	SEC
22	24	New Mexico	(15-2, 2-0)	11	Mountain West
23	10	Illinois	(14-4, 1-3)	17	B1G
24	15	Missouri	(12-3, 1-1)	23	SEC
25	30	Baylor	(11-4, 3-0)	46	Big 12
26	N/A	Marquette	(12-3, 3-0)	22	Big East
27	46	Miami	(12-3, 3-0)	5	ACC
28	33	Connecticut	(12-3, 2-1)	16	Big East
29	25	Notre Dame	(14-2, 2-1)	44	Big East
30	42	Boise St.	(13-2, 1-0)	28	Mountain West
31	17	Wyoming	(14-1, 1-1)	37	Mountain West
32	22	Wichita St.	(15-2, 4-1)	21	Missouri Valley
33	19	Cincinnati	(14-3, 2-2)	35	Big East
34	21	Pitt	(13-4, 1-3)	69	Big East
35	16	Georgetown	(11-3, 1-2)	55	Big East
36	49	BYU	(14-4, 4-0)	33	West Coast
37	50	Memphis	(12-3, 2-0)	50	Conference-USA
38	39	UNLV	(13-3, 1-1)	24	Mountain West
39	23	Oklahoma St.	(11-4, 1-2)	36	Big 12
40	N/A	Temple	(12-3, 2-0)	32	Atlantic 10
41	43	Colorado St.	(13-3, 0-1)	25	Mountain West
42	N/A	Utah St.	(14-1, 5-0)	86	WAC
43	N/A	Iowa St.	(11-4, 1-2)	48	Big 12
44	34	Saint Louis	(12-4, 1-1)	51	Atlantic 10
45	N/A	Texas A&M	(12-3, 2-0)	41	SEC
46	N/A	Wisconsin	(12-4, 3-0)	63	B1G
47	N/A	Evansville	(11-6, 4-1)	78	Missouri Valley
48	N/A	Washington	(11-5, 3-0)	58	PAC-12
49	31	Kentucky	(10-5, 1-1)	68	SEC
50	N/A	St. Mary's	(12-4, 1-1)	73	West Coast

Dropped from Rankings: #32 Maryland, #35 Tennessee, #36 Iowa, #37 Texas, #38 North Carolina, #40 Colorado, #44 Indiana State, #45 Stanford, #48 Northwestern

Blizzardcast

7:40am -- Disheartening confirmation to a snowstorm bust here in Grand Forks. Granted this measurement is at the wind-ravaged open territory of the airport, but I can't imagine much more than a 3" total at the University. Sigh...

0600 AM     SNOW             GRAND FORKS             47.92N 97.07W   
01/12/2013  E2.4 INCH        GRAND FORKS        ND   OFFICIAL NWS OBS  

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4:30am -- Still snowing, fairly decently too - combined with the blowing snow, it has the facade of heavy snow. Going to be a fun drive to work, fortunately it's only a mile away. The less I have to accelerate and decelerate, the better. My driveway varies between 6-18" drifts and a sheet of ice. Hard to say how much actual snowfall has occurred with all this wind, but my best guess would be around 3". Certainly not the 5-9" I had hoped for in my forecast. I will post a couple pictures once we get some daylight.

4am Observations:
4F, NNW wind 29 mph gusting to 38 mph, wind chill -20F, 1 mile visibility
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10:55pm -- HEAVY SNOW!!!! I can go to sleep in peace now - hopefully I wake up to a verified forecast.

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10:00pm -- Oh man that deformation band of heavy snow is tantalizingly close for those of us living in the north end of GFK! Buxton, Reynolds, and Thompson should be getting crushed - maybe even the southern outskirts of Grand Forks. Mainly just blowing snow here though. Come on heavy snow, keep filling in!!

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9:15pm -- Still waiting for the secondary deformation band to fill in. Appears to be coming along nicely on radar. In the meantime, just some blowing snow and light snow. 9pm conditions: 12F, North wind 28 mph gusting to 37 mph, wind chill of -9F. Visibility 1 mile at the airport, probably 2-3 miles here in town.


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3:30pm -- Getting some really fine light snow out there right now. I am happy to see on radar a band of snow developing to our southwest. Heavy snow (1/4 mile vis) being reported on the surface map from Cooperstown-Jamestown-Mobridge-Rapid City. Looking forward to that expanding over us tonight!

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2:35pm -- Not really doing anything right now, just a waiting game until snow moves in this evening. I took a drive through town a little bit ago for an errand, and I would categorize the roads as slick (main roads) to treacherous (intersections, side streets). I was shocked to see one salt truck. I did not think Grand Forks treated roads unless it was a day before or a day after a storm.

Since The Weather Channel is calling this 'Winter Storm Gandolf', I am going to see a matinee of The Hobbit. You can't ignore fate when signs like this come along. When I leave the theatre at 6:30 or so, it should be snowing and hopefully our first inch has fallen by then.
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12:30pm -- My driveway and street are a solid sheet of ice thanks to the freezing drizzle/rain overnight into morning. Currently some sort of fine snow grain/freezing mist c-c-c-combo. Air temperature 18F, north wind 24 mph gusting to 31 mph, giving us a wind chill of 0F.

snow...Snow...SNOW!!!

Finally, after about one and a half winters in Grand Forks, I have a decent snowstorm to look forward to. Just a couple weeks ago, as GFK wrapped up a month of seemingly endless stratus and -FF ('-' for light, and the second 'F' for flurries, and for those that don't know, I'll let you figure out what the first 'F' means). I worried it would be until the end of February or early March before we had a real shot at a decent snowstorm (the idea being we would need some influence from Gulf moisture. Fortunately, the jet stream is transforming (at least temporarily) to a highly meridional flow - thanks to the system moving northward through the Mississippi River Valley, in coincidence with a return to much colder temperatures. In response, a trough has developed over the west, with cyclogenesis expected over the Nebraska panhandle overnight into morning - then tracking northeastward towards MN tomorrow.

Until the colder air arrives and we get some moisture in the dendritic growth zone, there will likely be chances for freezing drizzle/freezing rain through much of morning. Snow should then develop during afternoon, sometime between 1-6pm. After a bit of a scare from the 12Z NAM in which  the mid-levels stayed dry until midnight tomorrow night, the 00Z NAM has come around and gives us a changeover to all snow by 4pm.

What I also like about the 00Z NAM is that the 700mb charts are very favorable for the heaviest snow band being near or just NW of GFK tomorrow night as shown by the following 09Z Saturday chart:

I certainly think that between 1-7am, snow magic should be happening, with a 6 hour period of 0.5"-1"/hour snowfall rates. After examining total QPF during the "all snow period", here are the estimated SWE for various models:

1/10 12Z Ensemble GGEM: 0.50"
1/10 12Z Ensemble GFS: 0.40" (noticeable down from 0.70", 24 hours ago)
1/10 15Z SREF Plume Mean: 0.44"
1/10 12Z Euro: 0.45-0.50"
1/11 00z NAM: 0.35-0.45"
1/11 00Z GFS: 0.45"

Except for the case of the Ensemble GFS (which was previously high in QPF), all models have been fairly consistent over the last 24-48 hours. Just taking a raw average of those QPF values, you get about 0.45" SWE. Snow ratios will increase through tomorrow night and Saturday morning, trending  from 10:1 at changeover, to 30:1 before ending. Climatological average snow ratios here are about 16:1 during January, according to a Saint Louis University study. So with that in mind, I think a total snowfall of around 7" is well within reach.  A couple days ago, I called for 5-9" and I feel that still holds valid.

It really should be nuts here around or just after midnight. Take a look at the 00Z GFS BUFKIT which has a thick DGZ saturated from around 600mb to 875mb.

You'll also notice those 925mb winds out of the north at 45 knots that are sure to mix down. Certainly seems like a recipe for near-blizzard to blizzard conditions Friday night. Ground blizzard conditions are then possible through mid-day Saturday. It is going to be a wild/thrilling ride to work at 5am Saturday that's for sure!

I will close with a snow map I made for the region, which I look forward to matching up against reports. Again, still thinking 5-9" here in Grand Forks, and if I had to pick an exact number, I'd go with 7".

Though, I wouldn't mind if the highest outliers of the SREF plume charts came true!! Total snow range of 6.7"-18.3", with an ensemble mean of 11.7"!  :-)

Final 2012 NCAA Football Rankings

Privately, I have made weekly Top 25 college football rankings since about October, and listed below are my final rankings for the 2012 season (expanded to 40 this week just because I felt like it). Stats junkies will hate these rankings because it is essentially a cumulative eye test that is based on "who did you play?", "how did you do?", and "what was the result?" You won't make it to #2 before you probably disagree with me, but remember, if everyone is thinking the same thing - then someone is not thinking. I believe Texas A&M's win AT Alabama was the biggest win of the season. A&M's two losses were earlier in the season to Florida and LSU - neither are slouches, having both finished in mine, and the AP's, top 15. I understand, you could make a similar (maybe better) argument for Alabama - having beaten LSU, Georgia, and Notre Dame to "compensate for their loss to A&M. I can not argue with that. A part of me feels that A&M and Alabama are 1a and 1b, but for the sake of sharing an opinion that is slightly different than the majority, here are my rankings:

Rank	Last	Team	Record
1	1	Texas A&M	(11-2, 6-2)
2	3	Alabama	(13-1, 7-1)
3	4	Ohio St.	(12-0, 8-0)
4	5	Stanford	(12-2, 8-1)
5	6	Oregon	(12-1, 8-1)
6	2	Notre Dame	(12-1)
7	8	Georgia	(12-2, 7-1)
8	10	South Carolina	(11-2, 6-2)
9	14	Clemson	(11-2, 7-1)
10	9	Kansas St.	(11-2, 8-1)
11	11	LSU	(10-3, 6-2)
12	13	Florida St.	(12-2, 7-1)
13	NR	Louisville	(11-2, 5-2)
14	7	Florida	(11-2, 7-1)
15	20	Boise St.	(11-2, 7-1)
16	23	Northwestern	(10-3, 5-3)
17	12	Oklahoma	(10-3, 8-1)
18	NR	Texas	(9-4, 5-4)
19	25	Baylor	(8-5, 4-5)
20	16	Oregon St.	(9-4, 6-3)
21	18	Michigan	(8-5, 6-2)
22	22	Utah St.	(11-2, 6-0)
23	15	UCLA	(9-4, 6-3)
24	24	Penn St.	(8-4, 6-2)
25	17	N. Illinois	(12-2, 8-0)
26	NR	San Jose St.	(11-2, 5-1)
27	NR	Tulsa	(11-3, 7-1)
28	NR	Vanderbilt	(9-4, 5-3)
29	NR	Cincinnati	(10-3, 5-2)
30	NR	Oklahoma St.	(8-5, 5-4)
31	NR	Arkansas St.	(9-4, 7-1)
32	NR	UCF	(10-4, 7-1)
33	NR	Nebraska	(10-4, 7-1)
34	21	Kent St.	(11-3, 8-0)
35	NR	Arizona St.	(8-5, 5-4)
36	NR	Syracuse	(8-5, 5-2)
37	NR	BYU	(8-5)
38	NR	Texas Tech	(8-5, 4-5)
39	NR	Ohio	(9-4, 4-4)
40	19	San Diego St.	(9-4, 7-1)