2013-14 Statistical College Basketball Rankings, Vol. VI

Rankings are through games played on Monday, 12/23. This year's metric rank accounts for 82% of this week's weighted rank. Next week, rankings will be sole based on this year's metric - no recruiting weighting, and no weighting from 2012-13 final standings. Of all teams, this will immediately help Iowa the most, as they currently have the #1 adjusted total offense and #1 adjusted total defense. With this week's rankings heading in that direction, it has already helped them, having moved from #10 to #6. For now though, undefeated Arizona remains the #1 team. For what it's worth, Ohio State is the best team I have seen play so far this season, with Oklahoma State being a close second, then Villanova third. I have not seen Arizona yet.

Rank	Prev. Rank	TEAM	Record	Weighted Metric	2013-14 Metric Rank	AP Rank
1	1	Arizona	(13-0, 0-0)	5.835	4	1
2	6	Oklahoma St	(11-1, 0-0)	8.52	2	7
3	3	Ohio State	(12-0, 0-0)	8.55	7	3
4	9	Villanova	(11-0, 0-0)	10.66	3	8
5	2	Memphis	(8-2, 0-0)	11.2	11	14
6	10	Iowa	(11-2. 0-0)	11.207	1	22
7	5	Florida	(9-2, 0-0)	11.747	5	13
8	12	Wichita St	(12-0, 0-0)	15.39	10	10
9	8	Wisconsin	(12-0, 0-0)	15.445	14	4
10	13	Iowa State	(11-0, 0-0)	16.471	15	14
11	11	Colorado	(10-2, 0-0)	17.4	6	21
12	18	San Diego St	(9-1, 0-0)	18.145	12	20
13	7	Syracuse	(11-0, 0-0)	18.185	20	2
14	15	Michigan St	(10-1, 0-0)	20.234	19	5
15	16	Minnesota	(10-2, 0-0)	21.745	17	NR
16	19	Pittsburgh	(11-1, 0-0)	21.831	16	36
17	17	Kentucky	(9-3, 0-0)	22.276	13	18
18	4	Louisville	(11-1, 0-0)	22.62	27	6
19	23	Baylor	(10-1, 0-0)	23.3	30	11
20	24	Duke	(9-2, 0-0)	26.77	36	9
21	14	UCLA	(10-2, 0-0)	27.185	22	33
22	21	Marquette	(7-5, 0-0)	30.472	25	NR
23	22	Kansas	(8-3, 0-0)	31.105	37	16
24	25	Oregon	(11-0, 0-0)	31.206	32	12
25	20	Arkansas	(9-2, 0-0)	31.85	9	NR
26	48	Florida St	(8-3, 0-0)	33.13	21	31
27	31	Michigan	(7-4, 0-0)	34.194	8	32
28	27	BYU	(8-5, 0-0)	34.423	24	NR
29	45	Texas	(10-2, 0-0)	36.327	35	28
30	40	Cincinnati	(10-2, 0-0)	37.34	38	NR
31	37	Boise State	(10-3, 0-0)	37.384	23	NR
32	47	Creighton	(9-2, 0-0)	40.56	34	37
33	43	Harvard	(10-1, 0-0)	40.79	28	34
34	38	New Mexico	(9-3, 0-0)	41.031	31	NR
35	30	Missouri	(10-1, 0-0)	41.41	41	25
36	34	U Mass	(10-1, 0-0)	41.579	40	23
37	35	Butler	(9-2, 0-0)	45.234	43	NR
38	46	Saint Louis	(11-2, 0-0)	45.35	46	NR
39	44	Stanford	(8-3, 0-0)	45.61	44	NR
40	39	Virginia	(9-3, 0-0)	46.383	29	NR
41	36	California	(8-4, 0-0)	47.784	45	NR
42	26	Gonzaga	(10-2, 0-0)	48.126	49	24
43	NR	George Washington	(10-1, 0-0)	48.98	39	29
44	29	Indiana	(10-3, 0-0)	49.274	55	NR
45	33	Connecticut	(10-1, 0-0)	49.606	61	15
46	42	LSU	(8-2, 0-0)	51.851	52	38
47	NR	Xavier	(9-3, 0-0)	54.633	53	NR
48	NR	Illinois	(10-2, 0-0)	56.276	57	27
49	NR	Tennessee	(7-4, 0-0)	58.712	26	NR
50	32	N Carolina	(8-3, 0-0)	58.842	18	19

This Week's Biggest Winners

• Florida St. (+22)
• Texas (+16)
• Creighton (+15)

This Week's Biggest Losers

• St. Mary's (-35)
• North Carolina (-18)
• Dayton (-17)

Most Overrated Teams (compared to AP Poll)

• North Carolina (+31)
• UConn (+30)
• Oklahoma (+26)

Most Underrated Teams (compared to AP Poll)

• Minnesota (-35)
• Pitt (-20)
• Marquette (-18)

UPDATE:  I have been trying to figure out why Marquette is rated so highly in my metric, despite their 7-5 record, and no key wins. As it turns out, the source I used to determine strength of schedule was inaccurate - in the case of Marquette, highly inaccurate. This week, I had them with a SOS of 27, but after comparing that to several other sources, it should be closer to 100. This would significantly alter their metric rank, giving them a lower ranking. I will make the necessary changes for next week's rankings.

2013-14 Statistical College Basketball Rankings, Vol. V

I continue to decrease the weighting of last year's ratings, down to only about 25%, while this year's metric is now worth around 65% (recruiting around 10%). This has benefited teams like: Iowa, Minnesota, San Diego State, Arkansas, BYU, and Harvard. Conversely, it negatively impacts teams like: Kansas, Duke, Oregon, Indiana, Missouri, and UConn. Speaking of UConn, I wouldn't buy into their #10 AP ranking too much. With the #64 offense and #53 defense, I feel like their 9-0 record has a high degree of luck factored in. It looks like the most improved team from last week was Boise State, who jumped from unranked to 37th, thanks to having the #10 offense in the country. Dropping out of the Top 50 this week were: #37 VCU (52nd), #40 Belmont (68th), #47 George Washington (51st), and #49 Charlotte (107th). They were replaced by Boise State, Harvard, Stanford, and Creighton. Here are my rankings through games played on Tuesday, 12/17:

Rank	Prev. Rank	TEAM	Record	Weighted Metric	2013-14 Metric Rank	AP Rank
1	2	Arizona	(11-0, 0-0)	9.59	7	1
2	3	Memphis	(7-2, 0-0)	10.452	5	15
3	7	Ohio State	(10-0, 0-0)	10.74	8	3
4	1	Louisville	(10-1, 0-0)	11.623	15	6
5	4	Florida	(8-2, 0-0)	12.122	6	16
6	5	Oklahoma St	(10-1, 0-0)	12.148	2	7
7	8	Syracuse	(10-0, 0-0)	13.81	16	2
8	9	Wisconsin	(12-0, 0-0)	14.718	12	4
9	10	Villanova	(10-0, 0-0)	18.58	3	8
10	17	Iowa	(10-2, 0-0)	19.945	1	25
11	14	Colorado	(10-1, 0-0)	20.813	4	20
12	13	Wichita St	(11-0, 0-0)	21.42	11	11
13	15	Iowa State	(8-0, 0-0)	21.963	18	17
14	12	UCLA	(9-1, 0-0)	24.742	17	26
15	16	Michigan St	(9-1, 0-0)	24.83	23	5
16	23	Minnesota	(9-2, 0-0)	27.77	19	NR
17	22	Kentucky	(8-3, 0-0)	28.1	13	19
18	25	San Diego St	(7-1, 0-0)	28.897	21	24
19	6	Pittsburgh	(10-1, 0-0)	30.003	22	27
20	30	Arkansas	(7-2, 0-0)	31.22	9	NR
21	26	Marquette	(7-4, 0-0)	31.278	30	NR
22	11	Kansas	(7-3, 0-0)	32.1	47	18
23	18	Baylor	(8-1, 0-0)	32.357	40	12
24	19	Duke	(8-2, 0-0)	33.771	54	9
25	20	Oregon	(10-0, 0-0)	34.29	37	13
26	31	Gonzaga	(10-1, 0-0)	34.995	35	21
27	34	BYU	(8-4, 0-0)	36.471	20	NR
28	42	St Marys	(8-0, 0-0)	38.55	38	28
29	24	Indiana	(8-3, 0-0)	38.878	49	NR
30	21	Missouri	(10-0, 0-0)	39.718	46	23
31	33	Michigan	(6-4, 0-0)	39.824	14	33
32	28	N Carolina	(7-2, 0-0)	42.449	10	14
33	29	Connecticut	(9-0, 0-0)	42.752	57	10
34	32	U Mass	(9-0, 0-0)	43.935	34	22
35	38	Butler	(8-2, 0-0)	44.098	43	NR
36	43	California	(8-3, 0-0)	45.385	31	NR
37	NR	Boise State	(8-2, 0-0)	46.64	33	NR
38	27	New Mexico	(7-3, 0-0)	47.746	29	NR
39	39	Virginia	(7-3, 0-0)	48.748	25	NR
40	36	Cincinnati	(8-2, 0-0)	49.112	69	NR
41	35	Dayton	(8-2, 0-0)	50.366	28	NR
42	41	LSU	(6-2, 0-0)	50.592	45	NR
43	NR	Harvard	(9-1, 0-0)	51.02	24	30
44	NR	Stanford	(7-2, 0-0)	51.06	50	NR
45	50	Texas	(9-1, 0-0)	51.79	39	NR
46	45	Saint Louis	(9-2, 0-0)	52.38	58	NR
47	NR	Creighton	(8-2, 0-0)	52.91	51	NR
48	48	Florida St	(7-3, 0-0)	54.86	36	NR
49	44	Mississippi	(7-2, 0-0)	57.143	56	NR
50	46	Oklahoma	(10-1, 0-0)	57.323	60	30

I expect the Christmas week ratings to include a weight of 75-80% for this year's metric rank. Barring any upsets, this should continue to help previously mentioned teams, as well as Dayton, Virginia, and Michigan.

2013-14 Statistical College Basketball Rankings, Vol. IV

Below are my Top 50 rankings through games played on Monday, 12/9. Thanks to the schizophrenic start to the North Carolina basketball season, I noticed a flaw in how harsh I penalize teams for bad losses. The end result had Carolina rated 51st. Yes they lost home to Belmont and away to UAB, but they beat Louisville home and Michigan State away. Surely that means they are better than 51st. Before, a good win home/away was worth 'x'/'2x'; respectively. Conversely, a bad loss home/away was worth '-2x'/'-x'. Now the bad losses are basically worth '-x'/'-x/2'; respectively for home/away. So after invoking the 'Carolina Rule' I feel these rankings are a more accurate representation. The side affect is that a team may move up, despite having an average week, or not even playing at all. Also, I continue the trend of decreasing the weights of last year's ranks as well as offseason recruiting rankings, and increasing the value of this year's metric rank - which is now 52% of the weighted metric. Overall, the Top 50 is showing signs of stabilization with only two new teams this week. North Carolina and Charlotte replaced Stanford and Arizona State. Meanwhile, Maryland remains unable to flirt with the Top 50, currently rated 66th.

Rank	Prev. Rank	TEAM	Record	Weighted Metric	2013-14 Metric Rank	AP Rank
1	10	Louisville	(8-1, 0-0)	6.643	8	6
2	1	Arizona	(9-0, 0-0)	11.755	10	1
3	5	Memphis	(6-1, 0-0)	12.313	5	16
4	12	Florida	(6-2, 0-0)	16.169	9	19
5	6	Oklahoma St	(8-1, 0-0)	16.28	2	7
6	4	Pittsburgh	(9-0, 0-0)	16.61	14	28
7	2	Ohio State	(8-0, 0-0)	16.85	17	3
8	3	Syracuse	(9-0, 0-0)	17.265	24	2
9	11	Wisconsin	(10-0, 0-0)	18.45	21	4
10	7	Villanova	(9-0, 0-0)	20.53	3	10
11	8	Kansas	(6-2, 0-0)	20.679	31	13
12	20	UCLA	(8-1, 0-0)	22.355	11	26
13	16	Wichita St	(9-0, 0-0)	24.13	7	12
14	22	Colorado	(9-1, 0-0)	24.548	4	21
15	9	Iowa State	(7-0, 0-0)	24.727	26	17
16	13	Michigan St	(7-1, 0-0)	26.095	22	5
17	24	Iowa	(10-1, 0-0)	27.07	1	23
18	26	Baylor	(8-1, 0-0)	27.342	34	14
19	14	Duke	(7-2, 0-0)	27.794	60	8
20	21	Oregon	(8-0, 0-0)	29.805	30	15
21	40	Missouri	(9-0, 0-0)	29.81	32	24
22	19	Kentucky	(7-2, 0-0)	30.415	16	11
23	29	Minnesota	(8-2, 0-0)	31.585	19	NR
24	17	Indiana	(7-2, 0-0)	33.014	46	35
25	15	San Diego St	(7-1, 0-0)	34.565	23	25
26	28	Marquette	(5-4, 0-0)	34.779	41	NR
27	42	New Mexico	(7-1, 0-0)	35.561	13	27
28	NR	N Carolina	(6-2, 0-0)	35.653	6	18
29	18	Connecticut	(9-0, 0-0)	35.671	64	9
30	27	Arkansas	(6-2, 0-0)	35.805	15	NR
31	32	Gonzaga	(8-1, 0-0)	37.983	29	20
32	39	U Mass	(8-0, 0-0)	38.302	36	22
33	25	Michigan	(6-3, 0-0)	38.338	12	30
34	30	BYU	(7-3, 0-0)	39.03	33	NR
35	23	Dayton	(7-2, 0-0)	41.331	37	32
36	33	Cincinnati	(7-1, 0-0)	41.555	47	33
37	37	VCU	(8-2, 0-0)	43.162	58	31
38	38	Butler	(7-2, 0-0)	44.224	45	NR
39	34	Virginia	(7-3, 0-0)	44.964	18	NR
40	44	Belmont	(8-2, 0-0)	45.808	77	NR
41	46	LSU	(5-2, 0-0)	47.749	39	NR
42	41	St Marys	(7-0, 0-0)	48.415	55	35
43	31	California	(6-3, 0-0)	49.929	25	NR
44	48	Mississippi	(6-2, 0-0)	50.654	48	NR
45	36	Saint Louis	(8-2, 0-0)	51.57	57	NR
46	35	Oklahoma	(8-1, 0-0)	52.29	51	39
47	50	George Washington	(8-1, 0-0)	54.377	40	37
48	47	Florida St	(6-3, 0-0)	55.35	27	NR
49	NR	Charlotte	(7-2, 0-0)	55.357	94	NR
50	43	Texas	(8-1, 0-0)	57.175	43	NR