Finally! Winter!!

It's a winter wonderland outside! 1.4" of snow fell on Wednesday the 28th which, believe it or not, doubled our seasonal snowfall. Another system quickly arrived late last night and continued into morning, giving us another 4.4" of snow, for a total of 5.8" of snow this week! It's so nice walking and driving in snow again (yes I like driving in the snow) and seeing massive snow piles in all the parking lots. The final snowfall of the week in this parade of storm systems arrives by morning. I expect a 1-2 hour period of freezing rain to start, then another 2" of additional snowfall on top of that before snow ends during afternoon. Though there are some indications we could receive another 4" snowfall if we win the 'golden shovel' yet again this week!

Then for Saturday night and Sunday, I am getting really pumped up for potentially my first North Dakota ground blizzard. In the wake of this system, sustained winds 25-35 mph gusting to 50 mph will move in. With a potential 6-8" of snow on the ground, this could get interesting!!
Then next week it gets unseasonably mild again. Blah.

Dec. 28th Snow

A nice coating of snow has fallen this evening, and it is still snowing very lightly. Sadly with less than an inch on the ground, this is easily our second deepest snow pack of the season! With fairly calm winds, it's a serene wintry evening.

So much for that

Thanks to temperatures dropping to a new daily low of 22°F just prior to midnight, the daily temperature departure of +31°F was also lowered, down to +28°F. So much for the incredible +30 temperature departure. Still a very nice day.

The rest of the week finally looks like a La Niña pattern with storm systems barreling into the Pacific Northwest, then a fast zonal flow across the northern tier state. This should translate to quick moving systems providing snow chances every 24-36 hours this week. Although the opportunities for snow increase due to the shear number of systems, because of the fast flow, none of these systems should properly mature resulting in generally light snow chances for each system that clips through North Dakota.

This week may be a transient phase though, with the GFS and Euro forecast models continuing to build a ridge over the western United States after New Year's, taking the storm track generally north of us once again. Basically, a return to where we've been for a wile now....dry and warmer than normal. If that comes to fruition, then I highly doubt I will experience true Dakota wintry conditions until at least the middle of January.

+31...Uff da!

With a high of 49 (breaking the record of 44 set 1901) and a low of 28, our average temperature of 39 degrees was a whopping 31 degrees above normal! Pretty rare to have a temperature departure of +/- 30 degrees and I can not remember the last time this happened at a location I was at. On this date last year, Grand Forks had an average temperature of 1 degree (High: 6, Low: -4), which is much closer to the normal high and low of 17 and -1, respectively.

Crazy Christmas Weather

It's sunny and 40°F on Christmas Day in Grand Forks. I have my balcony door open it feels so nice. The morning low was 25°F....a whopping 26 degrees warmer than our normal low, and 8 degrees warmer than our normal HIGH! Could we see record highs today and tomorrow? We should get into the mid-40s today and tomorrow. Here are the records that could be in jeopardy:

12/25-->45°F (1999)
12/26-->44°F (1901)

Christmas/Winter Climo

Looking at the 1981-2010 climate normals for Christmas Day in Grand Forks, the average high is 17.6°F and the average low is -0.4°F. It will certainly be above normal Christmas Day, and possibly record breaking on the 26th with afternoon highs probably reaching the mid-40s.

For the rest of winter, we continue the downward trend in average temperatures into the middle of January before rising. On average, the coldest high temperatures occur January 10th-13th with a high of 15.9°F, while the coldest low temperatures occurs between January 16th-22nd with an average low of -3.6°F. The coldest average days are January 14th-16th, with a mean temperature of 6.2°F.

Brown Christmas

I never expected my first Christmas in Grand Forks to be brown, but that's what I am going to get. I feel unlucky to not see the 3rd White Christmas of my life (1989 - Cambridge, MD; 2009 - Shawnee, KS) since Grand Forks has ~90% probability of a White Christmas. Oh well, more than likely I will see one next year.

I have updated the climate data on the right side. As you can see the crazy warmth continues thanks to this awful weather pattern for those of us who love snow. There are signs of  change coming up by New Year's as a the Pacific Northwest is progged to get blasted by a few big storms - finally breaking down the ridge out west and providing more of a zonal flow. Now instead of all the clipper systems missing us to the north and northeast, they may finally start to track through the Dakotas and provide some snow cover. The 12z Euro was quite ambitious with a decent snow storm on 12/30, with roughly 6-8" progged. Seems like too much QPF and the 00z GFS continues to be far less aggressive. As the saying goes, "drought begets drought", so I will not get too optimistic for any significant snow until we get a large scale hemispheric pattern change that is more conducive for normal winter weather here in the Dakotas.

Lunar Eclipse

At the end of my shift, I was able to see a lunar eclipse. The moon eclipsed from top to bottom, right before setting. I'm sure it was spectacular to see on the west coast. If I recall correctly, the next lunar eclipse that can be viewed in North America will be 2014.

First sub-zero night of the season

Currently 7°F here at the noon hour. I see we dropped to -3°F earlier this morning, making today the first of many sub-zero mornings I will experience. Looks like we will barely make it into the double digits for a high.

As a side note, the coldest days I have experienced were in in California, PA on 2/5/2007 with an average temperature of 0.5°F (High: 6, Low: -5) and in Shawnee, KS on 2/3/2011 with an average temperature of 3.5°F (High: 19, Low: -12). As for the coldest day in Cambridge, MD...not sure, I would have to comb through the archives but certainly not as cold as the previous two days mentioned. Soon enough, those personal records will be shattered.

College Football Rankings (thru 12/3)

...Rank|Last|Team|Record (Overall, Conference)...

1. (1) LSU (13-0, 8-0)
2. (2) Alabama (11-1, 7-1)
3. (5) Oklahoma State (11-1, 8-1)
4. (3) Stanford (11-1, 8-1)
5. (7) USC (10-2, 7-2)
6. (8) Oregon (10-2, 8-1)
7. (14) Wisconsin (11-2, 6-2)
8. (11) TCU (10-2, 7-0)
9. (12) Boise State (11-1, 6-1)
10. (10) Arkansas (10-2, 6-2)
11. (24) Southern Miss (11-2, 6-2)
12. (4) Houston (12-1, 8-0)
13. (18) Kansas State (10-2, 7-2)
14. (22) Clemson (10-3, 6-2)
15. (9) Michigan State (10-3, 7-1)
16. (16) Michigan (10-2, 6-2)
17. (6) Virginia Tech (11-2, 7-1)
18. (19) Baylor (9-3, 5-3)
19. (13) Georgia (10-3, 7-1)
20. (17) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2)
21. (20) Nebraska (9-3, 5-3)
22. (21) West Virginia (9-3, 6-2)
23. (15) Oklahoma (9-3, 6-3)
24. (23) Penn State (9-3, 6-2)
25. (NR) Northern Illinois (10-3, 7-1)

Dropped from Rankings: #25 Georgia Tech

Others receiving votes: Arkansas State, Auburn, BYU, Cincinnati, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Iowa, Louisiana Tech, Louisville, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio, Rutgers, Temple, Toledo, Tulsa, Virginia, Wyoming

College Football Rankings (thru 11/30)

...Rank|Last|Team|Record (Overall, Conference)...

1. (1) LSU (12-0, 8-0)
2. (4) Alabama (11-1, 7-1)
3. (5) Stanford (11-1, 8-1)
4. (17) Houston (12-0, 8-0)
5. (7) Oklahoma State (10-1, 7-1)
6. (24) Virginia Tech (11-1, 7-1)
7. (NR) USC (10-2, 7-2)
8. (14) Oregon ( 10-2, 8-1)
9. (NR) Michigan State (10-2, 7-1)
10. (11) Arkansas (10-2, 6-2)
11. (NR) TCU (9-2, 6-0)
12. (15) Boise State (10-1, 5-1)
13. (NR) Georgia (10-2, 7-1)
14. (2) Wisconsin (10-2, 6-2)
15. (3) Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2)
16. (12) Michigan (10-2, 6-2)
17. (22) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2)
18. (14) Kansas State (9-2, 6-2)
19. (20) Baylor (8-3, 5-3)
20. (19) Nebraska (9-3, 5-3)
21. (15) West Virginia (8-3, 5-2)
22. (8) Clemson (9-3, 6-2)
23. (NR) Penn State (9-3, 6-2)
24. (NR) Southern Miss (10-2, 6-2)
25. (10) Georgia Tech (8-4, 5-3)

Dropped from rankings: #13 Illinois, #16 Arizona State, #18 Auburn, #21 Texas, #23 Florida, #25 Navy

Others receiving votes: Arizona State, Arkansas State, Auburn, BYU. Cincinnati, Florida, Florida State, Iowa, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana Tech, Louisville, Missouri, Northern Illinois, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio State, Rutgers, SMU, Temple, Texas, Texas Tech, Toledo, Tulsa, Virginia, Washington, Western Michigan

1981-2010 GFK Winter Climate Normals

Grand Forks UND/NWS	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May		DJF Normals	Mean Seasonal Snowfall
Normal High	54.1°F	34.9°F	20.1°F	16.0°F	22.4°F	34.6°F	54.5°F	68.2°F		19.5°F
Normal Low	34.0°F	19.1°F	4.3°F	-1.3°F	4.6°F	17.6°F	31.5°F	43.3°F		2.5°F
Normal Mean	44.1°F	27.0°F	12.2°F	7.4°F	13.5°F	26.1°F	43.0°F	55.8°F		11.0°F
Normal Precipitation	1.92”	0.90”	0.65”	0.71”	0.59”	1.02”	0.98”	2.75”		1.95”
Normal Snowfall	1.0”	6.1”	10.9”	10.4”	6.9”	6.4”	1.0”	0.1”		28.2”	42.8”

November 2011 Climate Data

Grand Forks, ND (GFK)

Day|HI|LO|Dep.|Precip.|Snow
1.....55...35...+10...0.00"...0.0"
2.....50...24...+3...0.00"...0.0"
3.....56...20...+4...0.00"...0.0"
4.....59...35...+14...0.00"...0.0"
5.....57...40...+17...0.00"...0.0"
6.....52...34...+11...0.01"...0.0"
7.....44...20...+1...0.00"...0.0"
8.....53...15...+3...0.00"...0.0"
9.....40...20....0...Trace...Trace
10....40...21...+2...Trace...Trace
11....55...24...+11...0.00"...0.0"
12....49...20...+7...0.00"...0.0"
13....41...30...+8...0.00"...0.0"
14....46...21...+7...0.00"...0.0"
15....33...16...-1...0.04"...1.1"
16....24...12...-8...Trace...Trace
17....24....3...-11...0.00"...0.0"
18....29...16...-1...0.00"...0.0"
19....19....8...-10...Trace...Trace
20....20....6...-10...0.00"...0.0"
21....31....7....-4...0.00"...0.0"
22....42...19...+9...0.00"...0.0"
23....58...25...+21...0.00"...0.0"
24....56...28...+21...0.00"...0.0"
25....42...29...+16...0.00"...0.0"
26....35...30...+13...0.03"...0.3"
27....34...14....+5...0.00"...0.0"
28....51...16...+15...0.00"...0.0"
29....41....9....+7...0.00"...0.0"
30....34...21...+10...Trace...Trace




Average High: 42.3°F [Departure from Normal: +7.0°F]
Average Low: 20.6°F [Departure from Normal: +2.5°F]
Mean Temperature: 31.5°F [Departure from Normal: +5.4]

Total Precipitation: 0.08" [Departure from Normal:-0.82"]
Total Snowfall: 1.4" [Departure from Normal: -4.7"]


 Seasonal Snowfall: 1.4" [Departure from Normal: -5.7"]

Another record high

The high temperature was 56° today, breaking the record high by 2°. The average temperature of 43.5° was about 23° above normal.

Thanksgiving Warmth

Yesterday we set a record high of 58°F, shattering the previous record of 52°F set in 1972. As you can see on the right we were 21° above normal, and today should be more of the same. We only had a morning low of 31°F and I fully expect us to reach the low to mid 50s this afternoon. Today's record high is 54°F, established in 1942 then again in 1984. The morning low tied the record warmest low temperature for today, set in 1908 then met again in 1998 and 2001. This Thanksgiving is in stark contrast to last Thanksgiving where the morning low was -9° and the afternoon high was 15°.

October 2011: 7th Warmest on Record in Grand Forks (1893-2011)

Knowing that October was much warmer than normal in Grand Forks, I conducted research to determine just how warm it was. Initially I was led to believe it was the warmest on record, with climate records going back to 1893. However it was not the warmest. Though it was the 7th warmest October on record and the warmest since 1973. Here are the Top 10 warmest and coldest October's, followed by a complete list of climate data for all October's during the period of record from 1893-2011.

Top 10 Warmest

YEAR	AVG. HIGH	AVG. LOW	MEAN
1963	69.13	44.16	56.65
1953	65.42	42.06	53.74
1914	63.48	39.94	51.71
1947	62.77	40.32	51.55
1973	61.03	41.97	51.50
1924	62.45	39	50.73
2011	61.23	39.39	50.31
1938	63.06	37.03	50.05
1962	61.52	37.77	49.65
1940	60.48	38.71	49.60

Top 10 Coldest

YEAR	AVG. HIGH	AVG. LOW	MEAN
1919	44.39	21.16	32.78
1925	41.23	26.9	34.07
2002	41.94	27.87	34.91
1913	49.94	27.03	38.49
1916	48.58	28.52	38.55
1936	52.29	25.71	39.00
1893	48.7	29.79	39.25
2009	45.68	33.06	39.37
1991	49.06	29.71	39.39
1933	51.19	27.68	39.44

Complete October Climate Record for Grand Forks, ND

WARMEST RANK	COLDEST RANK	YEAR	AVG. HIGH	AVG. LOW	MEAN	NOTES
112	7	1893	48.7	29.79	39.25	Missing 10/1-10/3
91	28	1894	51.58	32.97	42.28
103	16	1895	52.42	28.45	40.44
101	18	1896	52.39	29.35	40.87
37	82	1897	57.65	35.93	46.79	Missing 10/1 low temp
107	12	1898	48.23	31.32	39.78
72	47	1899	53.81	34.71	44.26
11	108	1900	60.35	38.74	49.55
42	77	1901	58.74	34.1	46.42
88	31	1902	54.48	31.06	42.77
53	66	1903	57.68	33.74	45.71
33	86	1904	56.43	37.43	46.93	Missing 10/31
98	21	1905	52.35	30.23	41.29
74	45	1906	58.32	30.13	44.23
83	36	1907	57.77	28.71	43.24
61	58	1908	55.61	34.18	44.90	Missing 10/12-10/14 low temp
81	38	1909	55.06	31.61	43.34
19	100	1910	62.47	33.33	47.90	Missing 10/9
87	32	1911	51.87	33.71	42.79
57	62	1912	57.74	33.06	45.40
115	4	1913	49.94	27.03	38.49
3	116	1914	63.48	39.94	51.71
54	65	1915	58.55	32.77	45.66
114	5	1916	48.58	28.52	38.55
		1917				Entire month missing
56	63	1918	55.61	35.61	45.61
118	1	1919	44.39	21.16	32.78
12	107	1920	62.16	36.06	49.11
38	81	1921	58	35.58	46.79
46	73	1922	60.35	32.39	46.37
71	48	1923	56.03	32.52	44.28
6	113	1924	62.45	39	50.73
117	2	1925	41.23	26.9	34.07
95	24	1926	51.55	32.35	41.95
49	70	1927	57.1	35.58	46.34
82	37	1928	54.84	31.68	43.26
50	69	1929	57.13	35.12	46.13
96	23	1930	50.1	33.16	41.63
14	105	1931	59.94	37.45	48.70
104	15	1932	49.19	31.48	40.34
109	10	1933	51.19	27.68	39.44
18	101	1934	58.06	37.77	47.92
90	29	1935	56.13	28.68	42.41
113	6	1936	52.29	25.71	39.00
94	25	1937	52.61	31.52	42.07
8	111	1938	63.06	37.03	50.05
106	13	1939	48.58	31.87	40.23
10	109	1940	60.48	38.71	49.60
58	61	1941	55.97	34.52	45.25
29	90	1942	60.23	33.74	46.99
27	92	1943	61.45	33	47.23
24	95	1944	59.48	35.13	47.31
78	41	1945	56.26	30.81	43.54
84	35	1946	51.87	34.26	43.07
4	115	1947	62.77	40.32	51.55
30	89	1948	59.39	34.58	46.99
76	43	1949	54.1	33.32	43.71
36	83	1950	56.97	36.74	46.86
97	22	1951	50.19	32.9	41.55
93	26	1952	55.42	28.72	42.07
2	117	1953	65.42	42.06	53.74
68	51	1954	54.29	34.9	44.60
31	88	1955	59	34.94	46.97
13	106	1956	61.19	36.55	48.87
64	55	1957	54.03	35.35	44.69
23	96	1958	58.77	35.87	47.32
108	11	1959	47.61	31.84	39.73
26	93	1960	58.52	35.94	47.23
39	80	1961	57.71	35.74	46.73
9	110	1962	61.52	37.77	49.65
1	118	1963	69.13	44.16	56.65
45	74	1964	57.52	35.26	46.39
21	98	1965	58.35	37.32	47.84
65	54	1966	56.03	33.35	44.69
63	56	1967	55.1	34.29	44.70
73	46	1968	54.68	33.84	44.26
105	14	1969	47.81	32.74	40.28
59	60	1970	54.19	36.13	45.16
22	97	1971	56.1	39.03	47.57
89	30	1972	52.58	32.39	42.49
5	114	1973	61.03	41.97	51.50
28	91	1974	60.26	33.84	47.05
15	104	1975	60.16	36.94	48.55
102	17	1976	53.62	27.37	40.50
43	76	1977	58.1	34.74	46.42
32	87	1978	57.61	36.29	46.95
79	40	1979	53.06	33.9	43.48
85	34	1980	51.19	34.94	43.07
51	68	1981	54.45	37.68	46.07
55	64	1982	52.84	38.39	45.62
62	57	1983	52.61	37.1	44.86
34	85	1984	54.9	38.94	46.92
69	50	1985	54.74	34.45	44.60
67	52	1986	56.26	32.97	44.62
77	42	1987	54	33.35	43.68
80	39	1988	54.77	32.1	43.44
41	78	1989	60.26	32.77	46.52
48	71	1990	59.1	33.61	46.36
110	9	1991	49.06	29.71	39.39
60	59	1992	57.55	32.61	45.08
99	20	1993	51.71	30.58	41.15
17	102	1994	57.48	38.9	48.19
75	44	1995	52.52	35.81	44.17
35	84	1996	57.97	35.81	46.89
70	49	1997	53.97	35.03	44.50
47	72	1998	54.75	37.97	46.36	Missing 10/30-10/31
86	33	1999	54.13	31.84	42.99
20	99	2000	58.68	37.06	47.87
92	27	2001	51.58	32.65	42.12
116	3	2002	41.94	27.87	34.91
40	79	2003	58.68	34.48	46.58
66	53	2004	54.81	34.55	44.68
44	75	2005	55.87	36.97	46.42
100	19	2006	51.58	30.35	40.97
25	94	2007	56.65	37.94	47.30
52	67	2008	55.13	36.42	45.78
111	8	2009	45.68	33.06	39.37
16	103	2010	59.65	37.45	48.55
7	112	2011	61.23	39.39	50.31

3°F

The morning low was 3°F, the coldest temperature I have experienced since early February. The wind was calm so it really didn't feel too bad. The air felt fresher and more invigorating. That being said, I'm glad I have an indoor job. Our high temperature is actually right now at 23°F, for a mean temperature of 13°F. The 1981-2010 climate normal for 11/17 is 25°F. So today was a cold day even for GFK standards, with a departure from normal of -12°F.

The potential snow for Saturday has trended south, with virtually all guidance suggesting a SD/MN snowstorm. We will be lucky to see even flurries. Oh well. Thanksgiving looks warm with a ridge over the Plains.

First Accumulating Snowfall

Yesterday on 11/15, we had our first accumulating snowfall in GFK. It was only about an inch, but enough to get the roads slick. The official observation was 0.8", while the University measured 1.1". Yesterday also served as the first below normal day since 10/29. Quite cold today with a 4pm temperature of only 23°F. Tonight's low is forecast to drop into the single digits. Should be a seasonably cold week with highs in the 20s and lows in the 10-15°F range. Still looking at the possibility for snow this weekend, but models continue to trend it further south. It now looks like the northern bound of snow will only make it to Fargo.

My First Snow in Grand Forks

Earlier this week during the afternoon of November 9th, I experienced the first snow of the season here in Grand Forks. It lasted for a good half hour or so, starting around 2:30PM. Pavements were warm enough for it to just make the roads wet though. The question now becomes: When will I see my first inch of snowfall? The upcoming week looks seasonably cold, with a couple decent opportunities for snow by week's end. Latest prognosis has an organized storm system producing snowfall next weekend, so we shall see.

It is unclear on the latest date is for the first inch of snowfall in GFK. I may look into that after I complete my current side project of determining where October 2011 ranks amongst warmest Octobers. I can say with certainty that October 2011 was not the warmest ever, in fact it was at best the third warmest. I expect to conclude this research during the upcoming days.

Update on October 2011 (warmest ever?) in GFK

Through October 24th, the mean monthly temperature has been 53.2°F here in Grand Forks. Through October 16th, it stood at 58.9°F. High temperatures through the work week look to top out at seasonable values in the mid to upper 40s. Then for the weekend, ridging should allow for a warm-up, with an abnormally warm Halloween of 60°F possible. With average temperatures in the mid to upper 30s this week, then mid to upper 40s for the weekend, it will continue to fall. The all-time record warmest October for GFK occurred in 1973, with a mean monthly temperature of 50.1°F. Although we are still 3.1°F above that mark, I suspect we will fall just short of the record within a degree or two. This warm stretch of days is a good example of what a long-duration positive Arctic Oscillation, or AO, (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif) can do for Northern Plains weather.

23°F

We had a morning low of 23°F this morning and as of 10am, it is still only 32°F. I doubt we will reach 45°F for a high today, so definitely below normal. Looking back I can't say with any certainty if I have ever experienced a morning this cold, but I highly doubt I have.

After the below normal temperatures today and tomorrow, we should have a few days at or slightly above normal. Then latest forecasts show a cold snap for the period of 10/25 - 10/28. If that pans out, it will may seriously hurt our chances of having the warmest October ever. I would like to see the record broken, but I suspect we may fall just short.

Missouri Blue Norther - Nov. 11, 1911

A friend and colleague passed along a couple of links to some research being done by a few students at the University of Missouri concerning the "Blue Norther" of November 11th, 1911. An impressive cold wave pushed into Missouri, causing 24-hour temperature drops of 60-80°F, with many locations falling 30-50°F in less than two hours!

I love going back and looking at past weather events, so I was delighted to look into this for the first time. For more information on this fascinating case study, check out these links:

Students dig into old news files to report on 1911 storm
November 11, 1911 Weather Map

Record Warmest October?

Temperatures in Grand Forks (GFK) have trended much closer to normal over the past few days. When I last posted, I had listed temperature departures for the first eight days of the month. During the stretch, we started off the month with an average daily temperature departure of +17.87°F.

Since then, GFK has had the following temperature departures: +5, +11, +13, +15, +5, +1, +3, and +4. The first thing I noticed is that we have trended closer to normal the past four days. However, we have now gone halfway through October and have been above normal every single day! That is just incredible to think about.

Our average temperature for October is now at 58.9°F, while our daily temperature departure through 10/16 now stands at +12.5°F. Comparing that to the GFK climatological normals, our normal mean temperature for October is 44.3°F. The warmest October on record in GFK occurred in 1973, with a monthly mean temperature of 50.1°F, or +5.8°F above normal.

We stand a chance of breaking the record for warmest October ever. Just doing some quick math, our average daily temperature for the remainder of the month is going to have to be warmer than 40.04°F (daily departure of -1.74°F from 10/17 through 10/31) to break the record. Certainly, it would only take one cold snap at the end of the month to jeopardize our chances. So the math says it is still too early to say if this will be a record breaking month, but it certainly has been a warm start nonetheless.

10/10 College Football Rankings

...Rank|Last|Team|Record (Overall, Conference)...

1. (1) LSU (6-0, 3-0)
2. (2) Wisconsin (5-0, 1-0)
3. (3) Oklahoma (5-0, 2-0)
4. (4) Alabama (6-0, 3-0)
5. (5) Stanford (5-0, 3-0)
6. (6) Boise State (5-0, 0-0)
7. (7) Oklahoma State (5-0, 2-0)
8. (9) Clemson (6-0, 3-0)
9. (12) Oregon (4-1, 2-0)
10. (15) Georgia Tech (6-0, 3-0)
11. (17) Arkansas (5-1, 1-1)
12. (21) Michigan (6-0, 2-0)
13. (24) Illinois (6-0, 2-0)
14. (NR) Kansas State (5-0, 2-0)
15. (NR) West Virginia (5-1, 1-0)
16. (NR) Arizona State (5-1, 3-0)
17. (20) Houston (6-0, 2-0)
18. (22) Auburn (4-2, 2-1)
19. (10) Nebraska (5-1, 1-1)
20. (11) Baylor (4-1, 1-1)
21. (18) Texas (4-1, 1-1)
22. (13) South Carolina (5-1, 3-1)
23. (8) Florida (4-2, 2-2)
24. (16) Virginia Tech (5-1, 1-1)
25. (23) Texas A&M (3-2, 1-1)

Dropped from rankings: #14 South Florida, #19 TCU, #25 Navy

Others receiving votes: Cincinnati, Georgia, Louisiana-Lafayette, Michigan State, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Penn State, Rutgers, SMU, South Florida, Southern Miss, TCU, Temple, Texas Tech, USC, Wake Forest, Washington, Western Michigan

Northern Heat

I see it's been a couple of weeks since I last checked in. Since I last posted, an incredible warm stretch moved into the northern Plains. For the first week of October in Grand Forks, the average high temperature is in the low 60s, with average low temperatures in the upper 30s, for an average temperature around 50°F. Take a look at these daily temperatures and temperature departures from normal for the October 1st-8th:

Date...High...Low...Avg...Departure From Normal
10/1.....76.....42.....59.....+9
10/2.....83.....46.....65.....+15
10/3.....83.....49.....66.....+17
10/4.....84.....49.....67.....+18
10/5.....89.....60.....75.....+27
10/6.....82.....61.....72.....+24
10/7.....77.....62.....70.....+23
10/8.....66.....48.....57.....+10

That's just incredible to have six consecutive days +15 and three of those days being +27, +24, and +23.  Also of note is the cool front that passed through on the 7th. When I arrived at work at 3:45pm that day, I was greeted with sustained winds of 40 mph gusting to 60 mph and blowing dust. That 60 mph gust was another rarity for me, especially since it was not associated with a tropical system or thunderstorm.

Today's high/low was 60/41 which is much closer to normal...just a few degrees above normal since 58/35 is our normal high/low for today. Yeah those average temperatures really plummet in North Dakota during autumn.

That's all for now....things could get interesting this weekend.

9/25 College Football Rankings

First of all, I doubt I will update these weekly like I used to do on here. Probably every couple weeks instead. So here is the current Top 25 in college football as I see it:

1. LSU (4-0, 1-0)
2. Wisconsin (4-0, 0-0)
3. Oklahoma (3-0, 1-0)
4. Alabama (4-0, 1-0)
5. Stanford (3-0, 1-0)
6. Boise State (3-0, 0-0)
7. Oklahoma State (4-0, 1-0)
8. Florida (4-0, 2-0)
9. Clemson (4-0, 1-0)
10. Nebraska (4-0, 0-0)
11. Baylor (3-0, 0-0)
12. Oregon (3-1, 1-0)
13. South Carolina (4-0, 2-0)
14. South Florida (4-0, 0-0)
15. Georgia Tech (4-0, 1-0)
16. Virginia Tech (4-0, 0-0)
17. Arkansas (3-1, 0-1)
18. Texas (3-0, 0-0)
19. TCU (3-1, 1-0)
20. Houston (4-0, 0-0)
21. Michigan (4-0, 0-0)
22. Auburn (3-1, 1-0)
23. Texas A&M (2-1, 0-1)
24. Illinois (4-0, 0-0)
25. Navy (2-1)

Other receiving votes: Air Force, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Florida State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Missouri, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Penn State, Tennessee, Texas Tech, USC, Washington, West Virginia

Boring Weather

I have not posted much on here lately because there really isn't much going on weather-wise. We did have a couple rain-cooled days a few days ago, when we had a little over an inch of rain. But now we are back to clear skies with temperatures slightly above normal (highs in the low-70s, lows in the mid-40s). It really is a near-perfect weather pattern setting up. Looking ahead, we will be hard pressed to receive any rain in the near future. A fairly weak cold front looks to move through Grand Forks on Wednesday the 28th, but we may not see much more than sprinkles, if even that. After that, probably more of the same until the next potential front around the 2nd or 3rd of October. No major signs of a change in the weather pattern over the next week or two. Though I see cold air brewing over Alaska as we head into October....it's just a matter of time before that makes a visit to the Northern Plains.

9/15/2011 - Earliest Freeze of my Life

Although it wasn't quite as cold as expected this morning, the morning low temperature did reach 31°F today. This is by far the earliest freeze I have ever experienced, beating out a couple of late October freezes I experienced in western PA when I lived there. Pretty sure I'll see snow by late October.

Yesterday was also a momentous weather day for me. The high of 57°F on the 14th was the first sub-60°F high temperature I have experienced in September. Just the first of a long lists of weather firsts heading my way over the next several months!

Only 177 miles away from snow!

Currently in Kenora, Ontario (extreme SW Ontario, just north of the Lake of the Woods region of Minnesota) it is 39 degrees with light light rain and snow showers. As the crow flies, that is only 177 miles to my northeast. Wow. I never thought I'd be this close to snow in September. Maybe by the end of the month I'll see it first hand! Though forecast models suggest a warmup for the last week of the month. If we get below freezing tonight (latest forecast calls for a low of 29 which is just 2 above the record set in 1903), then we may see an Indian Summer.

As a side note, I just noticed that Springfield, Missouri has had an impressive 24-hour temperature change. Yesterday afternoon they had a high of 99 degrees. Currently it is 57 degrees, rain, and a NNE wind of 20 mph. That's an incredible -42 degree temperature change!

Goodbye Summer?

It's currently 49°F at 9pm on September 13th. Take a minute to process that.

A cold front went through yesterday, bringing us clouds for the first time in a week. Our high temperature of 73°F was recorded at 8:37am. The rest of the day featured temperatures in the 60s, falling into the 50s by evening, with blustery conditions. Today it was downright fantastic with an extremely comfortable high of 71°F. We had a few sprinkles earlier today, but barely enough to wet the pavement. Now on to the goods...

I am currently under a Frost Advisory and Freeze Watch...and it's the middle of September. Our forecast low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night are 33°F and 28°F, respectively. Meanwhile the forecast high temperatures tomorrow and Thursday are a balmy 53°F and 58°F. Take another minute to process that.

I have never experienced freezing temperatures, or a sub-60°F high temperature during the month of September. Well that's about to change in a hurry. This cold snap coming up is even cold for Grand Forks standards. Here are the record lows for Grand Forks tonight and tomorrow night:

9/14 Record Low: 25°F (1956)
9/15 Record Low: 27°F (1903)

That's right, a record low temperature breaking the mark set 108 years ago is possible when I wake up Thursday morning.

Welcome to North Dakota Reece!


9:52AM 9/14 Update: The morning low was indeed 33 degrees. That was quite a "hello, good morning" from Mother Nature when I walked to my car.

North Dakota Heat

Since my last post, it is has been fairly warm here for the most part. After slightly below normal days on the 3rd, 4th, and 5th; we transitioned to 5-14°F above normal. Here were our high temps from the 6th-11th:

9/6: 81°F
9/7: 85°F
9/8: 87°F
9/9: 89°F
9/10: 87°F
9/11: 89°F

Though the afternoon temperatures were warmer than desired, it did cool down into the 50s each night, which was nice. Of note, from the 5th-11th, I never saw a cloud in the sky. Rare to go an entire week with continuous clear skies. But as I have been told, the weather pattern can make a drastic change in a hurry, as is the case now...

A Taste of Fall

It is pretty much perfect weather outside here at Grand Forks. The temperature is 67°F with a nice northwest breeze around 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. It certainly feels like football weather here on the first weekend of college football season. Should be short-lived however, as southerly winds return for the work week, bringing above normal temperatures. Speaking of which, the normal high this time of year is in the low to mid-70s. By the end of the month, the average high only reaches the low to mid-60s.

Latest Forecast Track of Hurricane Irene

8/26 EDIT:  A slight increase in forecast winds and rain from yesterday. Irene should probably track right along the coast, with hurricane forced winds a near certainty for Ocean City, with gusts to 100mph. In Cambridge, expect tropical storm forced wind gusts (39 mph or greater) to develop as early as 6pm Saturday and continue until noon Sunday. The highest sustained winds look to occur during a 6-hour period overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. During this peak wind time, expect sustained winds 40-60 mph, with gusts to 75 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength). Storm surge up the bay will not be as bad as Isabel because the track of Irene will push more water up the Atlantic coast than up the Bay. Still, an increase of 2-4 feet is possible.

Lastly and most importantly, expect torrential rainfall causing significant flooding. I am upgrading my forecast rainfall for Cambridge to 6-10" Saturday through Sunday morning. The initial outer bands of rain look to arrive around midnight tonight and continue throughout Saturday into Sunday morning, ending by noon Sunday. Keep in mind, Cambridge's average monthly rainfall for August is 4.59". So we are talking potentially two months worth of rain during the course of a day and a half...there will be flooding!


11:51AM, 8/26 UPDATE: Hurricane Warning now in effect for Dorchester County.

Hurricane Irene Google Map Forecast Track

8:46AM, 8/26 EDIT:  Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Eastern Shore of Maryland, except for Worcester County. Hurricane Warning in effect for Worcester County, the Eastern Shore of Virginia, and all of Delaware. Here is the current forecast by the National Weather Service out of Wakefield, VA:

Saturday: Tropical storm conditions expected. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 79. East wind 16 to 21 mph increasing to between 29 and 34 mph. Winds could gust as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Tropical storm conditions expected. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 73. Northeast wind 36 to 46 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible.

Sunday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Scattered showers before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Cambridge, MD Forecast | NWS-Wakefield, VA

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8/25 EDIT: Ruh-roh...this is looking like Bad News Bears from North Carolina to New England. For back home, the latest forecast track would give tropical storm forced winds (as of now, I estimate sustained winds 40-50 mph with gusts to 65 mph) Saturday night into Sunday morning, as well as heavy rain. The data I looked at last night would give Cambridge 5-8" of rain, with probably a foot of rain at Ocean City. Conditions should improve Sunday afternoon, but at what cost?

2011-12 English Premier League Predictions

1. Manchester United (2012-13 UEFA Champions League)
2. Manchester City (2012-13 UEFA Champions League)
3. Chelsea (2012-13 UEFA Champions League)
4. Liverpool (2012-13 UEFA Champions League playoff round qualification)
5. Tottenham (2012-13 UEFA Europa League)
6. Arsenal (2012-13 UEFA Europa League playoff round qualification)
7. Aston Villa (2012-13 UEFA Europa League playoff round qualification)
8. West Bromwich Albion
9. Fulham
10. Bolton
11. Stoke City
12. Everton
13. Newcastle
14. Sunderland
15. Wolverhampton
16. Norwich City
17. Queen's Park Rangers
18. Wigan Athletic (Relegated to the 2012-13 Football League Championship)
19. Blackburn Rovers (Relegated to the 2012-13 Football League Championship)
20. Swansea City (Relegated to the 2012-13 Football League Championship)

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2012-13 teams promoted from 2011-12 Football League Championship:

1. West Ham United
2. Leeds United
3. Nottingham Forest

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Golden Boot: Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez (Manchester United)
Top Assists: Luis Suarez (Liverpool)
Golden Glove: Joe Hart (Manchester City)

Hurricane Irene & the Potential Rarity of a Georgia Landfall

As I alluded to in my previous post, the southeast needs to monitor Hurricane Irene. However the same holds true for the Mid-Atlantic as well since heavy rains and storm surge may be possible this weekend or early next week as it continues northward. In conversations with a couple of other meteorologists, I could not recall a hurricane making a direct landfall on the Georgia coastline in my 15+ years of tracking tropical storms and hurricanes. Turns out I was right. In fact, it hasn't happened in my lifetime. Here is an excerpt from a story posted online by The Augusta Chronicle last year in reference to Hurricane Earl:

Here is some background on Georgia's Hurricane History:
- Aug. 27, 1881: A major hurricane hits the coast, killing 700 people.
- Aug. 27-28, 1893: A major hurricane hits the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, killing 1,000 to 2,500 people and leaving 30,000 homeless.
- Aug. 31, 1898: The last Category 3 hurricane to date to make landfall in Georgia strikes Savannah, with 179 deaths.
- 1911: A Category 2 hurricane hits Savannah, killing 17 people.
- 1940: A Category 2 hurricane hits Savannah, killing 50 people.
- 1947: A Category 2 hurricane hits Savannah, killing one person.
- 1979: Category 2 Hurricane David hits Savannah, causing minor damage.

Source: Georgia Emergency Management Agency

 Source: http://chronicle.augusta.com/content/blog-post/rob-pavey/2010-09-01/georgia-rarely-gets-hit-hurricanes-here-s-why

So that's 7 Georgia hurricanes in the last 130 years (average of 1 every 18.5 years) with Hurricane David being the last one in 1979. That's 32 years ago, which means Georgia is past due for a hurricane to make landfall. Interestingly, David's track (Source: Wikipedia) looks fairly similar to Irene's future track shown in my previous post.

77mph Wind Gust at Dover AFB, DE!

KDOV 211451Z AUTO 33045G67KT 3/4SM R01/0600VP6000FT -TSRA SQ FEW004 BKN018 OVC026 24/19 A2995 RMK AO2 PK WND 33067/1450 RAB1451 TSB1405E1420B1423 PRESFR SLP144


A severe thunderstorm developed Sunday morning and produced a 77 mph wind gust at Dover AFB, DE around 11am. Above is the METAR report when the storm began, and I have placed in bold the maximum wind gust of 67 knots (77.2 mph). For those of you not familiar with weather coding, here are what a majority of those codes mean:


KDOV-->4-character station ID for Dover AFB
211451Z-->Date and time [21: 21st of the month, 1451Z: zulu time (10:51 eastern time)]
33045G67KT-->Direction wind is from (330°), sustained wind speed (45 kt), and maximum wind gust (67kt)
3/4SM-->Visibility in statute miles
-TSRA SQ-->Significant present weather...in this case, light thunderstorm (-TS), moderate rain (RA), and squalls (SQ)
FEW004 BKN018 OVC026-->Cloud conditions and cloud height in hundreds of feet (Few clouds at 400 feet, Broken clouds at 1800 feet, Overcast skies at 2600 feet)
24/19-->Temperature/Dewpoint in degrees celsius. Air temperature: 24°C (75.2°F), Dew Point Temperature: 19°C (66.2°F)
A2995-->Altimeter in hundredths of inches of mercury (A2995 = 29.95")
RAB 1451-->Remark indicating that rain began at 1451Z


See, you do learn something new everyday. Although Dover is over an hour away from Cambridge, I am a little jealous that all this exciting weather has occurred in or near areas I used to live. Here is a screenshot of the Dover radar when this storm produced 77 mph gusts at Dover...

I have never experienced a thunderstorm that produced wind gusts as strong as this storm in Dover...let alone the 70-85 mph gusts that the KC Metro experienced a few days ago. For comparison, hurricane-forced winds are 74 mph or greater. Speaking of hurricanes, time to keep an eye on Hurricane Irene...

Hey, good morning to you!

62.6°F in the apartment when I got home from work a little while ago. Nice! The morning low was 56°F at GFK (Grand Forks International Airport). Overnight I was the forecaster for Kansas and Nebraska, which I have obviously become quite familiar with. Looks like I'll pick up Nevada tomorrow night for the first time.

Song of the day:  Band of Horses - Part One        ...song #41 in my playlist-->

Delightful evening

My thermometer reads 60.8°F (not exactly accurate since I live on the 3rd floor, but close enough) at 11:04pm...latest GFS-LAMP MOS guidance has us getting down to 50°F tonight! Just exchanged a few texts with my mother and she said she thinks Fall and Winter are going to come early for me. I had to laugh because I know it will. I've heard the stories. A guy at work mentioned the other day about having to go the long way to work a couple times last winter because the railroad crossing posts froze up while a train was crossing the road, which blocked traffic until they thawed out. I laughed but that was a little unsettling to hear.

Time to get ready for my first midnight shift at Meridian. This will be like an old hat for me since I spent about 8 of the last 10 months working mids.

Back Out of Retirement

I decided I am going to start blogging again because I want to chronicle my first winter in the Siberia of the United States known as Grand Forks, ND. Looks like my last post was Halloween 2010. This was almost exclusively a sports blog in the past, particularly college football related. I may occasionally post sports related stuff, but the main purpose of this is to give a first hand account to my family back home in Maryland and friends across the country what frigid weather is really like. To avoid boring people and encourage myself to post almost daily, I will keep future entries to just a couple sentences.

So bookmark this page to keep up to date with my most recent posts. When it gets cold, just visit this blog and see how much colder I am....I'm sure you'll feel a lot better. Comments are welcome, just be sure to leave your name or it will say anonymous.