Green Bay Packer Playoff Scenarios

There are 5 scenarios listed below, in order of probability.

1. GB win @ CHI + NYG loss or tie @ WAS + ATL loss or tie @ PHI.
2. GB win @ CHI + NYG loss or tie @ WAS + CAR loss or tie @ NO.
3. GB win @ CHI + NYG loss or tie @ WAS + STL loss or tie @ MIN.
4. GB tie @ CHI + NYG loss @ WAS + STL loss @ MIN + (ATL loss or tie @ PHI OR CAR loss or tie @ NO).
   
   ...and the craziest scenario ever conceived, plus the only scenario possible should the Giants win on Saturday night:
   
   
5. GB win @ CHI + NYG win @ WAS + CAR loss @ NO + STL loss @ MIN + DAL loss vs. DET + IND loss vs. MIA + SD loss vs. ARI + SF win @ DEN + SEA win @ TB + HOU loss vs. CLE (Should GB and NYG win, the results to the other 8 games listed above must ALL occur, allowing GB to clinch the #6 seed over NYG based on strength of victory tiebreaker.)

Bottom line: 'Hail to the Redskins' on Saturday night, then root for the Eagles, Saints, and Vikings (surely one of those teams will win) Sunday afternoon, and GO PACK GO on Sunday night football. The Giants are pathetic, the Pack's defense has stepped up, the Bears will rest their starters since they have clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and the Eagles and Saints will most likely beat their opponents. We can do this!!

It's going to happen, the Packers will make the playoffs!!!

Time to give the Beavers some more love

The Oregon State Beavers, that is.

After watching today's Sun Bowl between #25 Oregon State and #38 Missouri, sign me up as a fan of the Beavers. My predicted upset over USC earlier this year also plays a factor in this decision. However it mainly took one play from today's game for me to become a fan. Oregon State was not dominant today by any means, in fact they only won by a point. Rather, it is how they won.

Down by 14 points in the second half, the Beavers rallied back at the end of the game. With 0:21 left on the clock, down 38-31, Oregon State passed for a touchdown to make the score 38-37. A probable extra point would tie the game and most likely send it into overtime. It was then that head coach Mike Riley showed some real guts and faith in his football team and unbelievably went for a 2-point conversion, and thus the lead. With Missouri on their heels, expecting an extra point, Coach Riley put the game in the hands of his offensive line by going up the middle with the halfback.

Running back Yvenson Bernard crossed the end zone line for a successful conversion and a 39-38 lead. Missouri had about 15 seconds for a quick score, but their drive was unsuccessful as time ran out near mid-field. Truly this was the gutsiest college football play I have seen this season. Heck, I would not have even tried that on PS2! Furthermore, this amazing play capped off what has thus far been the most exciting bowl game of the season (note: the Houston/South Carolina Liberty Bowl has been pretty exciting as well through halftime). It's one of the plays where hindsight shows the coach is gutsy if it works, and an idiot if it doesn't.

All that matters for me, and Oregon State for that matter, is that Coach Riley was gutsy and I am now a fan of their team. Kudos to the Beavers!

GONZAGA vs. DUKE TONIGHT!!!

My favorite college basketball team (Gonzaga) vs. the team I despise the most (Duke). I am not sure why, but this game is being played at Madison Square Garden in NYC. I guess neither team wanted to play a true road game against the other. Makes sense, as both teams have the most dominating home-court advantages in college basketball. Not only am I looking forward to this matchup because it's on national television (ESPN2, 9PM), but this is also the first-ever matchup between the schools.

I have been waiting for this game for a long time. I hate Duke and I hope the Zags rip them apart. Look for a 80-75 type game, hopefully with Gonzaga being the victor. The Zags have been impressive thus far, earning a 9-3 record with their most difficult schedule in school history. Duke on the other hand, has looked rather bland at times. This Blue Devil team does not resemblence the powerhouse Duke teams we have grown accustomed too. They look very beatable, but I still expect a close game.

This game is the highlight of a very exciting sports night. Prior to this game at 7PM, also on ESPN2, features #8 Pitt @ #19 Oklahoma State. This will be another excellent game, but look for more of a defensive battle. Probably the first team to 60, if either gets there, will be the victor. I predict a Cowboy victory over the Panthers, as very few come out of Stillwater, OK with the 'W'. Also on tonight at 8PM, we have our 2nd college football bowl game of the season. This too should be a good game as #16-BYU faces #49 Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. BYU closed the season on a remarkable run, so look for a Mormon victory in 'Sin City'.

This may be my last post until New Year's Eve, so I will post the upcoming bowl schedule for the next ten days (predicted winners in bold).

Las Vegas Bowl (12/21) - #16 BYU (10-2) vs. #49 Oregon (7-5)
New Orleans Bowl (12/22) - NR Rice (7-5) vs. NR Troy (7-5)
New Mexico Bowl (12/23) - NR New Mexico (6-6) vs. NR San Jose State (8-4)
Papa John's Bowl (12/23) - #28 South Florida (8-4) vs. NR East Carolina (7-5)
Armed Forces Bowl (12/23) - NR Tulsa (8-4) vs. NR Utah (7-5)
Hawaii Bowl (12/24) - #41 Arizona State (7-5) vs. #27 Hawaii (10-3)
Motor City Bowl (12/26) - NR Middle Tennessee (7-5) vs. #39 Central Michigan (9-4)
Emerald Bowl (12/27) - #50 Florida State (6-6) vs #24 UCLA (7-5)
Independence Bowl (12/28) - NR Oklahoma State (6-6) vs. NR Alabama (6-6)
Holiday Bowl (12/28) - #31 California (9-3) vs. #17 Texas A&M (9-3)
Texas Bowl (12/28) - #15 Rutgers (10-2) vs. NR Kansas State (7-5)
Music City Bowl (12/29) - #35 Clemson (8-4) vs. #47 Kentucky (7-5)
Sun Bowl (12/29) - #25 Oregon State (9-4) vs. #38 Missouri (8-4)
Liberty Bowl (12/29) - #33 South Carolina (7-5) vs. #30 Houston (9-3)
Insight Bowl (12/29) - #37 Texas Tech (7-5) vs. #44 Minnesota (6-6)
Champs Sports Bowl (12/29) - #40 Purdue (8-5) vs. #34 Maryland (8-4)
Meineke Car Care Bowl (12/30) - #36 Navy (9-3) vs. #29 Boston College (9-3)
Alamo Bowl (12/30) - #19 Texas (9-3) vs. NR Iowa (6-6)
Chik-Fil-A Bowl (12/30) - #22 Georgia (8-4) vs. #14 Virginia Tech (10-2)
MPC COmputers Bowl (12/31) - #42 Miami, FL (6-6) vs. NR Nevada (8-4)

Winter Solstice Rankings

1. UCLA (10-0, 0-0)
2. North Carolina (9-1, 0-0)
3. Wichita State (9-0, 0-0)
4. Ohio State (10-1, 0-0)
5. Wisconsin (11-1, 0-0)
6. Connecticut (10-0, 0-0)
7. Duke (10-1, 0-0)
8. Pitt (10-1, 0-0)
9. Washington (9-1, 0-0)
10. Florida (10-2, 0-0)
11. Alabama (10-1, 0-0)
12. LSU (6-3, 0-0)
13. Arizona (9-1, 0-0)
14. Texas A&M (9-2, 0-0)
15. Tennessee (9-2, 0-0)
16. Kentucky (8-3, 0-0)
17. Kansas (9-2, 0-0)
18. Nevada (9-1, 0-0)
19. Oklahoma State (11-1, 0-0)
20. Marquette (11-2, 0-0)
21. Butler (11-1, 0-0)
22. Gonzaga (9-3, 0-0)
23. Memphis (8-3, 0-0)
24. Texas (8-2, 0-0)
25. Syracuse (9-2, 0-0)

Rankings are updated through games played on Wednesday, December 20. Next update will be issued (hopefully) on December 31.

Coming soon...

Starting to get back in the groove of things and I hope to return to blogging in the very near future. I will try to get an updated college basketball rankings up either tonight or tomorrow. Stay tuned...

Dec. 4 NCAA Basketball Ranks

College Basketball Rankings (as of 11/27)

1. UCLA (4-0, Last Week:8)
   
2. Ohio State (6-0, LW:4)
3. Alabama (5-0, LW:9)
4. Pitt (6-0, LW:6)
5. North Carolina (4-1, LW:1)
6. Wichita State (4-0, LW:22)
7. Marquette (7-0, LW:25)
8. Washington (5-0, LW:13)
9. Syracuse (7-0, LW:17)
10. Kansas (5-1, LW:7)
11. Florida (6-1, LW:2)
12. Connecticut (5-0, LW:14)
13. Texas A&M (6-0, LW:16)
14. Nevada (5-0, LW:21)
15. LSU (2-1, LW:3)
16. Duke (5-1, LW:11)
17. Georgia Tech (5-1, LW:24)
18. Wisconsin (5-1, LW:5)
19. Butler (7-0, LW: NR)
20. Gonzaga (6-1, LW:31)
21. Xavier (4-1, LW:26)
22. Memphis (3-1, LW:19)
23. Georgetown (4-1, LW:10)
24. Maryland (7-0, LW:50)
25. Illinois (7-0, LW:30)

Updated rankings will be issued by 1:30PM Monday.

Pre-Bowl Rankings

There are two keys to the final BCS Standings released earlier. First and foremost, the voters did NOT want a rematch between Ohio State and Michigan. I have commented on this before, so I will not go into great detail. All I will say is that win or loss, Michigan is the only team in the country that can compete with Ohio State. The Wolverines only lost by 3 points in hostile territory. It is not far fetched to think that Michigan could win on a neutral field. As for Florida, I just can not see them competing with the Buckeyes. That being said, I hope the Ohio State blows out Florida and makes the voters look even more foolish than they already are. Secondly, the voters seem to be lacking any sort of long-term memory. Unfortunately, the "what have you done for me lately" attitude became very evident since the end of Michgan's regular season two weeks ago. By playing later in the season, USC and Florida were able to capitalize on Michigan's off-weeks. It seems I am still in the minority by keeping Michigan at #2, even after their loss to Ohio State. I will have plenty of time to chime in on this debate over the next month.
As for the rest of the standings, there really is not much to talk about due to the limited amount of games last week. Clearly I have a lot less respect for the Auburn Tigers and Cal Bears than the voters do. That is what happens though when I have high expectations. I once thought that both were top-10 teams, maybe even top-5. Then they lost games against inferior teams, so I had to penalize them severely. Rounding out the top 25, UCLA and Oregon State move up after wins against top-20 teams. They replaced Georgia Tech and Hawaii.
Since the first bowl of the season, the Poinsettia Bowl, occurs on December 19, I will go on hiatus from college football this week so I can concentrate on updating my college basketball rankings. I am a couple weeks behind and have some catching up to do. To help myself out, my next college basketball rankings will be dated, such that it will only include results through Monday, November 27. I will then issue a quick update to reflect the results' through Sunday's games. For now, chew on this:

Championship Week Picks

MAC Championship (Thursday, 11/30, 7:30)
#35 Ohio - 20 vs. #49 Central Michigan - 19
I like Frank Solich to lead his Bobcats to victory in the MAC title game and an eventual spot in the Motor City Bowl. It should be an exciting game though.

Conference USA Championship (Friday, 11/1, 8:00)
NR Southern Miss. - 29 vs. #30 Houston - 34
This is an intriguing rematch from earlier this season. Southern Miss. was the only conference loss for the Houston Cougars. This time around, I expect Houston to get their revenge, leading to a spot in the Liberty Bowl.

ACC Championship (Saturday, 11/2, 1:00)
#13 Wake Forest - 24 vs. #25 Georgia Tech - 13
The Demon Deacons magical season continues with a victory over the Yellow Jackets. A win will give them an automatic BCS bid and a probable spot in the Orange Bowl .

SEC Championship (Saturday, 11/2, 6:00)
#7 Arkansas - 15 vs. #5 Florida - 17
The Gators keep winning ugly so why stop now? Florida will get an automatic BCS berth and should go to the Sugar Bowl where they may have an intriguing matchup against Notre Dame.

Big 12 Championship (Saturday, 11/2, 8:00)
#22 Nebraska - 23 vs. #11 Oklahoma - 28
I really want to pick Nebraska here, but the Sooners have been on fire since they were screwed over at Oregon. This should be a back and forth game with Oklahoma winning by a close margin.

Other big games:
NR Connecticut - 10 @ #4 Louisville - 52
I only include this blowout pick because of reasons listed below. Look for Louisville to win the Big East and clinch a BCS bowl berth.


NR Army - 20 vs. #37 Navy - 37
Navy has been the better team for quite some time now, so I am not expecting anything shocking here. Bobby Ross will have his Cadets give a commendable performance though.


#3 USC - 35 @ #39 UCLA - 27
I want to go with the upset pick here just out of sheer disdain for the Trojans being ahead of Michigan in the polls. I will predict a close game, I just can not pull the trigger on an upset. I suspect USC will unconvincingly remain at #2 in the BCS after this game. Most likely we will see a BCS Championship of Ohio State vs. USC.


#15 Rutgers - 24 @ #13 West Virginia - 34
If Rutgers win, they win the Big East and go to a BCS Bowl since they beat Louisville earlier this year. West Virginia needs some help to get an automatic BCS berth. They need to beat Louisville and have Louisville lose. In addition, they need to have a higher ranking than Louisville and Rutgers to advance to a BCS game. That my friends, is a long shot. I like the Mountaineers to win at home, but there is no way Louisville loses a home game to Connecticut. West Virginia goes to the Gator Bowl with a victory here. Then again, will Pat White be healthy?


#28 Oregon State - 37 @ #19 Hawaii - 48
Aside from Louisiana Tech, these are the only other teams that will play 13 regular season games. Both teams will go to bowl games as well, making them possibly the only college teams to have 14-game seasons. As for this game, I expect a similar result to last week's Purdue/Hawaii game. Hawaii won that game 42-35, led by astounding QB Colt Brennan (33-48, 434 yards, 3TD's, 1INT). Brennan has 51 TD passes this season and I expect him to get 4 more to break the single-season record of 54 TD's, set by former Houston QB David Klinger in 1990.

Post-Thanksgiving Rankings

It's been ten days and probably ten pounds later, but I am back with my up-to-date rankings. I did update last week, I just did not post it. As for this week, I guess I am in the minority by keeping Michigan at #2, but it seems legit to me. I have two arguments to support my point.

1. USC's lone loss was at unranked Oregon State. Michigan's lone loss was at #1 Ohio State.
2. Both teams beat Notre Dame. USC won in L.A. by 20 points. Michigan won at South Bend by 26 points.

Both factors favor Michigan to be the better team. Unfortunately the powers that be are only looking at recent events. Excuse me, but USC lost to a mediocre team this year, Michigan lost only to the best. Therefore Michigan remains more rewarding of the #2 rank. Let's not forget that USC plays at UCLA this coming Saturday. This will not be a cakewalk for the Trojans by any means. After all, the Bruins did something the Trojans could not do this year, they convincingly beat Oregon State by a score of 25-7. This game could be much closer than the experts think. Elsewhere in the Top 25, Boise State finally moves into my top 10 at #9 with a perfect record of 12-0. West Virginia drops out of the top 10 for the first time all year, thanks to their disappointing home loss to unranked South Florida. Hawaii continues their ascent into the top 20, and Georgia and TCU return to the top 25, replacing Boston College and Maryland.


Teams rising up: #17 Texas A&M (+8), #19 Hawaii (+5), #23 Georgia (+10), #26 South Florida (+13), #32 South Carolina (+6), #8 Missouri (+6), #41 Arizona State (+10), #42 Miami, FL (+10)

Teams fading: #10 Notre Dame (-5), #13 West Virginia (-7), #20 Texas (-5), #25 Georgia Tech (-9), #27 Boston College (-13), #33 Maryland (-11), #34 Clemson (-8), #43 Arizona (-12), #46 Kentucky (-5), #48 Oregon (-6)
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2006-07 Bowl Outlook

Pictured below are my predictions for the upcoming bowl season, based on my rankings. Teams listed in bold have already accepted invitations to the respective bowls they are placed in. There are 73 bowl eligible teams competing for 32 bowl games. That means nine teams will be unlucky this year. Of those 9 that I do not project to go to a bowl, only three teams exist in major conferences (Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Washington State). Here are my projections:

For Bo...GO BLUE!

For my final pick of the week, I am rooting for the Michigan Wolverines to beat the Ohio State Buckeyes. As late as this morning, I was almost ready to pull the trigger and pick Ohio State to win 21-20. My main factor in predicting a Buckeye win was the efforts of my pre-season Heisman winner pick, QB Troy Smith. I felt he was going to single-handedly break down the Michigan defense, as he has done in years past. However my feelings changed abruptly when I heard the sad news around Noon today.

I assume that if you are taking the time to read this, then you already know that the former legendary coach of Michigan, Bo Schembechler, died at the age of 77 this morning. Very sad news indeed in this heated rivalry, yet incredibly ironic that he died one day before what is being dubbed 'The Game of the Millennium." I am a sentimentalist at heart, and it is hard for me to believe that Michigan will not play with any extra motivation or inspiration tomorrow. He was a beloved, iconic figure in Ann Arbor, and I have no doubt in my mind the Wolverines will go into the Horseshoe and win one for Bo.

That being said, here is a brief breakdown of how I think the game will go down. Ohio State will be led by Heisman candidate Troy Smith. Smith will run pass for a touchdown and run for two more. The Wolverines will spread the ball more efficiently though, keeping the Buckeyes off-balance. Mike Hart will run for 107 yards and a touchdown. In case you do not know, the Wolverines are 17-1 when Hart runs for 100+ yards, with their lone loss coming against Minnesota last year. However in his two games against Ohio State, he has 27 rushes for a combined 76 yards and one touchdown. So it could be argued this is a bold prediction I am making regarding Hart. Elsewhere, I expect Chad Henne to pass for two touchdowns, both to 'super sophomore' Mario Manningham. In addition, the Wolverines will tack on two field goals from kicker Garrett Rivas. The 99th game between Michigan and Ohio State will be one for the ages.

Your final score from Columbus, OH:
#2 Michigan Wolverines - 27
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes - 21

Lucky 7 Picks

In case you are not aware, I will reserve my pick on the Michigan @ Ohio State game until Friday. Let the suspense begin!! For now, I will pick seven games from this week for your enjoyment.

'Backyard Brawl'
#7 West Virginia - 56 @ NR Pitt - 28
Pitt lost at UConn last week in double overtime, 46-45. I expect their defense to get throttled by WVU's electric offense.

'Iron Bowl'
#22 Auburn - 31 @ NR Alabama - 13
Kenny Irons runs wild for 3 TD's in the Iron Bowl, helping the Tigers bounce back from their disappointing loss last week.

#17 Maryland - 20 @ #19 Boston College-18
I learned my lesson a couple weeks ago, I will not pick against the Terps while they keep winning. It's ugly every week, but this team gets the job done. Wins over Miami and Florida State in the same year are stunning.

#18 Virginia Tech - 10 @ #12 Wake Forest - 20
Who woulda' thunk it? The Demon Deacons are one of the most impressive football teams in the country. I am really looking forward to their showdown with the Terps in two weeks.

#33 South Florida - 24 @ #8 Louisville - 30
This game has upset written all over it. If I had another one of those gut feelings, I'd pull the trigger, but that's not the case this time. I am going with Louisville in a squeaker.

#25 California - 28 @ #4 USC - 34
Cal really needs to bounce back after last week's embarrassing loss to Arizona. Unfortunately for them they have to do it against the Trojans. My predicted score indicates a close game, but I think USC leads from start to finish.

Upset Special (sorta)
#42 Central Michigan - 31 @ NR Northern Illinois - 37
Well, I had to dig kind of deep for this one. Central Michigan has a spot reserved in the MAC Championship game, whether they win this game or not. Northern Illinois has severely underachieved, even with one of the best RB's in the country, Garrett Wolfe. I think the Huskies finally get their act together to earn a bowl berth, with a win over the Chippewas.

In addition, I predict the following teams will win this weekend to become bowl eligible:
Minnesota over Iowa, South Carolina over Middle Tennessee, Florida State over Western Michigan, Miami over Virginia, Indiana over Purdue, Wyoming over UNLV, UTEP over Marshall, Troy over Arkansas State, and UCLA over Arizona State

REMEMBER...My prediction for the Ohio State/Michigan game will be released on Friday!!!

Rankings Comparison

http://www.xanga.com/speedydave24

Check out my buddy Dave's rankings in comparison to mine and the BCS. Good stuff!!! By the way, later tonight I will be making my picks for this week. However, I will wait until Friday night or Saturday morning before picking the Ohio State/Michigan game.

Movers and Shakers

Teams rising up: #3 Arkansas (+5), #4 USC (+5), #6 Rutgers (+8) (I can't believe Rutgers is #6 in the country, I remember when they were one of the worse teams in Div. 1-A!), #12 Wake Forest (+8), #17 Maryland (+6), #20 BYU (+5), #27 Hawaii (+5), #32 Arizona (+13), #34 Georgia (+17), #35 Kansas State (+17), #42 Central Michigan (+9), #48 UCLA (-6)

Teams fading: #8 Louisville (-5), #15 Texas (-11), #21 Tennessee (-6), #22 Auburn (-17), #25 California (-13), #36 Oregon State (-12), #37 Oregon (-9), #47 Miami (-10), #49 Tulsa (-15), #50 Florid State (-15)

Put a fork in 'em: The following unranked teams dropped out of my top 50: Alabama, Western Michigan, Pittsburgh, Wyoming, Washington State (note: all of these teams could still earn bowl berths, but nothing to write home about)

Send them back to the cook: The following teams have returned to the top 50 after being previously written off: Georgia, Arizona State, UCLA

Week 11 Rankings

I think I had a tougher time making this week's rankings than ever before. There are some inconsistencies and arguments can be made (i.e. Arkansas ranked ahead of USC...West Virginia ahead of Louisville), but I ranked teams in order that I feel they should be ranked. Two weeks ago, Louisville was better than West Virginia. This week I feel West Virginia is better. Two months ago USC was much better than Arkansas, now I feel the Razorbacks are slightly better. All in all, this was a very difficult week to rank teams. As such, I expect another big shake-up either next week or the following week due to some teams being ranked too high or too low. Nevertheless, here is what I think for now and I expect some controversy...

My 2006-07 Preseason College Basketball Rankings

It is my custom to rank the top 65 college basketball teams since that is the number of teams that make the tourney in March. However since these are preseason rankings, I have no desire to breakdown, let alone list, all 65 ranked teams. Instead I will keep it short and sweet by just listing the top 25 (in reverse order for dramatic effect) and let you agree or disagree. As always, comments are welcome!

25. Marquette Golden Eagles (AP-16, Coaches-17)
24. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (AP-23, Coaches-21)
23. Southern Illinois Salukis (AP-27, Coaches-29)
22. Wichita State Shockers (AP-26, Coaches-27)
21. Nevada Wolfpack (AP-24, Coaches-25)
20. Creighton Bluejays (AP-19, Coaches-23)
19. Memphis Tigers (AP-14, Coaches-14)
18. Texas Longhorns (AP-21, Coaches-21)
17. Syracuse Orange (AP-20, Coaches-20)
16. Texas A&M Aggies (AP-13, Coaches-13)
15. Arizona Wildcats (AP-10, Coaches-10)
14. Connecticut Huskies (AP-18, Coaches-18)
13. Washington Huskies (AP-17, Coaches-16)
12. Boston College Eagles (AP-15, Coaches-15)
11. Duke Blue Devils (AP-12, Coaches-11)
10. Georgetown Hoyas (AP-8, Coaches-8)
9. Alabama Crimson Tide (AP-11, Coaches-12)
8. UCLA Bruins (AP-6, Coaches-6)
7. Kansas Jayhawks (AP-3, Coaches-3)
6. Pitt Panthers (AP-4, Coaches-5)
5. Wisconsin Badgers (AP-9, Coaches-9)
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (AP-7, Coaches-4)
3. LSU Tigers (AP-5, Coaches-7)
2. Florida Gators (AP-1, Coaches-1)
1. North Carolina Tar Heels (AP-2, Coaches-2)

Preseason College Basketball Rankings on Hold

I am still in the process of researching college basketball teams so I apologize for the delay in the rankings. I wanted to have them up a week or so ago but I have only had enough spare time to fool with college football stuff. Hopefully I can post my preseason rankings Friday night. I will tell you right now that I am in strong disagreement with several teams ranked in the top 25 of the AP and Media polls. That's all I can tease you with for now!

To my Anonymous Rutgers Fan...

Rejoice, this post is especially for you. I am picking 8 games this week and highlighting the schedule will be the Thursday night game between Louisville and Rutgers. I have heard all year from you how I am not giving Rutgers the respect they deserve, when in fact I have the Scarlet Knights ranked slightly higher than the AP and Media polls. That's ok that you feel they deserve more respect, I understand. I dedicate this to you because I want you to know I am giving Rutgers all the respect they deserve this week. That's right, I am predicting Rutgers to defeat #3 Louisville this week. I hope you enjoy this.

#3 Louisville -29 @ #14 Rutgers -31
My "master plan" of assuring that Ohio St. & Michigan have a rematch for the National Championship continues with Louisville losing at Rutgers.

#37 Miami (FL) - 9 @ #23 Maryland - 17
The Hurricanes look like a bunch of bums and I am finally a believer in the Terps. I like Maryland at home in a low-scoring game.

#27 Nebraska - 20 @ #22 Texas A&M - 15
Nebraska got back on track last week with a home win against Missouri. Let's see if they can get a key conference win against a Big-12 South opponent. This should be a very good game, I like the Huskers here by less than a touchdown.

#42 South Carolina - 17 @ #10 Florida - 19
I really want to go with the underdog here, but two things have become apparent about these two teams. First, Florida seems to always win ugly. Secondly, South Carolina is good enough to compete, but not good enough to win. Thus, I will go with Florida in a tight one.

#38 Texas Tech - 28 @ #17 Oklahoma - 38
Texas Tech can score, but they have been unimpressive on the road. I like Oklahoma to pull away in the second half.

#15 Tennessee - 27 @ #8 Arkansas - 16
Technically, this is an upset pick by rankings, but I think these two teams are fairly even. If I had to pick a team in my rankings that I feel I may overrated, it is Arkansas. They should be a Top-15 team, but Top-10 maybe a bit high. Nevertheless, that will sort itself out, should Tennessee win. If Arkansas wins, than I guess I was right all along.

#20 Wake Forest - 10 @ #35 Florida State - 17
Another upset pick here as I think Bobby Bowden has lit a fire under the rears of his players. I was really impressed with their dominant performance last week and would not be surprised if the Seminoles win out. Wake Forest is a good team and will keep it close, but I like FSU by a touchdown.

#26 Oregon - 23 @ #9 USC - 45
Some may think this will be close, and it may be at halftime, but USC needs a convincing win against a good team. I see the Trojans turning this game into a blowout in the second half, winning by 3 TD's.

Week 10 Rankings

Tough week for me with my picks as I went 5-5. Even with my five wins, my scores were way off, so I am looking forward to doing a better job next week. As for this weekend's games, I think it's safe to say some teams were looking ahead in their schedules too much (ehem Michigan & Ohio St.)! In the top 25, there were not many drastic changes, other than Wake Forest and Maryland moving up (replacing Clemson and Tulsa). With Louisville's big win, I moved them to 3rd and dropped WVU to 7th. Things got crazy when ranking teams 26-50 as there were some major changes. There were so many upsets of the middle-tier teams that it was quite difficult to rank. Elsewhere, the surging Hawaii Warriors (7-2, 5-1) move up to 32nd in my rankings and have become the first team to accept a bowl invitation. Hawaii will play a "home game" in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve against a Pac-10 team (likely Arizona State).

Top 50 Rankings

1. (1) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0) Won @ Illinois, 17-10
   
2. (2) Michigan (10-0, 6-0) Won vs. Ball State, 34-28
   
3. (4) Louisville (8-0, 3-0) Won vs. West Virginia, 44-34
   
4. (5) Texas (9-1, 6-0) Won vs. Oklahoma State, 36-10
   
5. (6) Auburn (9-1, 5-1) Won vs. Arkansas State, 27-0
   
6. (7) Notre Dame (8-1, 0-0) Won vs. North Carolina, 45-26
   
7. (3) West Virginia (7-1, 2-1) Lost @ Louisville, 44-34
   
8. (9) Arkansas (8-1, 5-0) Won @ South Carolina, 26-20
   
9. (10) USC (7-1, 5-1) Won @ Stanford, 42-0
   
10. (11) Florida (8-1, 6-1) Won @ Vanderbilt, 25-19
    
11. (14) LSU (7-2, 3-2) Won @ Tennessee, 28-24
    
12. (12) California (8-1, 6-0) Won vs. UCLA, 38-24
    
13. (15) Wisconsin (9-1, 6-1) Won vs. Penn State, 13-3
    
14. (13) Rutgers (8-0, 3-0) IDLE
    
15. (8) Tennessee (7-2, 3-2) Lost vs. LSU, 28-24
    
16. (16) Boise State (9-0, 5-0) Won vs. Fresno State, 45-21
    
17. (18) Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2) Won @ Texas A&M, 17-16
    
18. (19) Georgia Tech (7-2, 5-1) Won @ NC State, 31-23
    
19. (20) Virginia Tech (7-2, 4-2) Won @ Miami (FL) 17-10
    
20. (29) Wake Forest (8-1, 4-1) Won vs. Boston College, 21-14
    
21. (17) Boston College (7-2, 3-2) Lost @ Wake Forest, 21-14
    
22. (21) Texas A&M (8-2, 4-2) Lost vs. Oklahoma, 17-16
    
23. (33) Maryland (7-2, 4-1) Won @ Clemson, 13-12
    
24. (24) Oregon State (6-3, 4-2) Won vs. Arizona State, 44-10
    
25. (25) BYU (7-2, 5-0) Won @ Colorado State, 24-3
    

Teams rising up: #20 Wake Forest (+9), #23 Maryland (+10), #29 TCU (+6), #32 Hawaii (+8), #33 Houston (+17), #35 Florida State (+8), #36 South Florida (+15), #38 Texas Tech (+7), #39 Ohio (+7), #40 Western Michigan (+7), #43 Purdue, #44 Navy, #45 Arizona, & #46 Kentucky (+9), #48 Middle Tennessee (+8)

Teams fading: #15 Tennessee (-7), #28 Clemson (-5), #34 Tulsa (-12), #37 Miami, FL (-5), #42 South Carolina (-6), #47 Pittsburgh (-10), #49 Washington State (-15), #50 Alabama (-20)

Put a fork in 'em: The following unranked teams dropped out of my top 50: Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Georgia, Washington, Indiana, UCLA (note: all of these teams could still earn bowl berths, but nothing to write home about)

Today's Picks

I hope I can get my remaining 9 picks in before the first game starts at noon...

#33 Maryland -17 @ #23 Clemson -27
Maryland can't be as good as their record is. I like Clemson to bounce back from last week's loss.

#27 Penn State - 13 @ #15 Wisconsin - 28
Sadly, I can not imagine this as a close contest. Sure Penn State shut out Purdue last week, but it was only 12-0! Wisconsin looks like a much better team...this could get ugly.

#28 Missouri - 24 @ #31 Nebraska - 30
Nebraska needs to get back on track and a home win against a team ranked slightly higher than them should do the trick. I like the Huskers here by about a touchdown.

#14 LSU - 13 @ #8 Tennessee - 16
I have been back and forth on who to pick here. Lee Corso is infiltrating my mind about how LSU is the best 2-loss team ever, and maybe so. I just prefer to pick the home team in big SEC games as that seems to work best. Either way, a tight on in Knoxville.

#42 Oklahoma State - 24 @ #5 Texas - 42
Oklahoma State will compete...in the first half. Then Texas runs away with it, winning big.

#18 Oklahoma - 23 @ #21 Texas A&M - 30
Another game I have been back and forth with. The Aggies have continued to impress and surprise many so I will hop on board. College Game Day is at College Station so this would be a big win in Aggieland.

#17 Boston College - 22 @ #29 Wake Forest - 24
Upset #1: But is it really an upset when Wake Forest has a better record? Well B.C. is in the top 25 and Wake is not, so I guess that constitutes as an upset. Should be a very close game but I think Wake wins, vaulting them in the top 25.

#9 Arkansas - 29 @ #36 South Carolina - 31
Huge upset here! South Carolina gets a big win at home over a top 10 team. I personally don't think Arkansas is as good as I have them ranked. Play defense Gamecocks!!

#20 Virginia Tech - 10 @ #32 Miami (FL) - 18
Two thug schools, one ugly game. Hard to believe this is an upset pick. I reluctantly pick Miami.

Whew! 11:56AM, I just barely made it! Hopefully these picks don't suck.

#3 West Virginia @ #4 Louisville

Game of the Year...for now

On paper, I think West Virginia is a better team. My biggest problem with the Mountaineers is that they have yet to play well for all four quarters of a game. They seem to suck in the first half, and dominate the second, or vice versa. If they play that way tonight at Louisville, they will lose.

On the other hand, Louisville has looked mediocre as of late with slim victories against Cincy and Syracuse. Brian Brohm is back but does not look as good as he did before the injury, and Michael Bush is of course, out for the season. Kolby Smith, Bush's replacement, has filled in quite nicely though as he is coming off a career high 165-yard rushing performance against Syracuse with two TD's. If he fails to get 100 yards tonight, West Virginia will win.

However, I think the biggest story tonight will be from the winning team's defense. Neither team's defense is spectacular by any means. But at some point, there will be a big interception return to capitalize the game for the eventual victor. One final point, with the game being played at Papa John Stadium in Louisville, I think that neutralizes the superior talent of West Virginia. Whoever wins, will do so by a touchdown or less. I think this will more likely be decided by a field goal or less.

Prediction
West Virginia-27
Louisville-30

P.S. Louisville MUST contain Steve Slaton to <100 yards. I think they will handle Pat White.

- More predictions for Saturday's games to come on Friday.

Halloween Rankings

Well I finally have indulged the J-Factor by bumping Michigan up to #2 this week for the first time. Overall the standings have shaken up a bit as we head into the heart of the college football season. Past Michigan's climb to #2, the next thing to stand out is the rankings of the teams playing in the game of the week. West Virginia is now #3 and Louisville is #4. This will go down as the game of the year...that is until #1 Ohio State and #2 Michigan face each other for the "national championship" later in November.

Here are the updated rankings, with further analysis below:

Teams on the rise: #24 Oregon State (+11), #33 Maryland (+6), #34 Washington State (+6), #35 TCU (+6), #41 Arizona State (+5), #42 Oklahoma State (+9)

Teams on the slide: #10 USC (-6), #23 Clemson (-15), #31 Nebraska (-10), #32 Miami (-6), #36 South Carolina (-6), #39 Georgia (-6), #43 Florida State (-7), #44 Wyoming (-10), #49 Washington (-5)

Game of the Week: #3 West Virginia @ #4 Louisville (set you VCR SpeedyDave!)

Other Games to Watch: #33 Maryland @ #23 Clemson, #27 Penn State @ #15 Wisconsin, #28 Missouri @ #31 Nebraska, #49 Washington @ #26 Oregon, #22 Tulsa @ #50 Houston, #14 LSU @ #8 Tennessee, #41 Arizona State @ #24 Oregon State, #42 Oklahoma State @ #5 Texas, #18 Oklahoma @ #21 Texas A&M

Upset Alert: #17 Boston College @ #29 Wake Forest, #9 Arkansas @ #36 South Carolina, #20 Virginia Tech @ #32 Miami (FL)

Pick Evaluation

Overall I had a great week which was, of course, highlighted by the awesome Oregon State upset pick. Here's the breakdown:

Record this week: 7-2

Wins: Iowa over N. Illinois, Oklahoma over Missouri, Penn State over Purdue, Florida over Georgia, Oregon State over USC, Georgia Tech over Miami, Tennessee over South Carolina
Losses: Maryland over Florida State, TCU over Wyoming

Best Predictions: USC-26 @ Oregon State-28.....Actual Result: Oregon State won 33-31; Tennessee-31 @ South Carolina-24.....EXACT Result AND Score!!
Worst Prediction: Wyoming-26 @ TCU-10....Actual Result: TCU won easily, 26-3

The Oregon State Beavers!!!

Upset Alert: NR Northern Illinois @ #38 Iowa, #10 Tennessee @ #30 South Carolina, #4 USC @ #35 Oregon State (call it a gut feeling) - Monday, October 23

#4 USC - 26 @ #35 Oregon State - 28
As some of you already know, I have been honking on the Beavers upsetting the Trojans for a few days now and I still feel that way. Again, my only reasoning is that it is just a gut feeling so I guess we'll find out tomorrow whether I was right or if it was just gas. - Friday, October 27

FINAL SCORE
Oregon State - 33
USC - 31

Isn't life crazy, when a "gut feeling" can cause you to predict one of the biggest upsets of the year in college football? I really do not have any statistical explanation for my prediction. Sure, I had Oregon State ranked in the top 35, but we are talking about the mighty USC Trojans! I suppose this is proof that there is validity toward one's intuition.

That being said, I do not have any gut feelings this week. I wonder if I will ever have such a strong feeling on a team, as I did with the Beavers, for the remainder of the college football season. If I do, I wil be sure to let you know.

So how much of an "off the wall" prediction was this? Here's the goods:

• USC's loss snapped their 27-game Pac-10 winning streak (L 34-31 @ Cal, 27 Sept. 2003).
  
• The loss also ended the Trojans' 18-game regular season road winning streak (see above).
• In the last 45 years, this was just the third Beaver victory over the Trojans (all at home, 31-21 in 2000, and a 3-0 upset over #1 USC led by O.J. Simpson in 1967).

Big pat on the back for this one!

Friday Picks

I'm feeling extra bold and saucy today, so I'm picking 10 college football games this week! I have them listed in the order in which the games begin. By the way, I am glad I didn't pick the Clemson/VT game!

NR Northern Illinois - 21 @ #38 Iowa - 27
Iowa gets a scare at home from RB Garrett Wolfe and the Huskies, but they should survive to go to 6-3.

#20 Oklahoma - 25 @ #25 Missouri - 23
Well this may go down as the game of the week since Clemson laid an egg at Blacksburg. Missouri finally gets to prove to the country how good they are, but can they come through with a big win at home? I say: "not quite."

#29 Penn State - 31 @ #48 Purdue - 20
This is a game in which Penn State needs a breakthrough on offense. I think (hope) they can take advantage of Purdue's far less superior defense. I am expecting a big game out of QB Anthony Morelli.

#33 Georgia - 6 @ #13 Florida - 30
Georgia sucks, they lost to Vanderbilt two weeks ago and nearly lost to Mississippi State last week. Both of those games were at Georgia too. This one is at The Swamp and the talent level is drastically different. Expect a blowout win by the Gators.

#4 USC - 26 @ #35 Oregon State - 28
As some of you already know, I have been honking on the Beavers upsetting the Trojans for a few days now and I still feel that way. Again, my only reasoning is that it is just a gut feeling so I guess we'll find out tomorrow whether I was right or if it was just gas.

#26 Miami (FL) - 10 @ #19 Georgia Tech - 13
Should be a game led by defense and I think Georgia Tech's is a little better. In addition, after Miami's "thug fest" two weeks ago against Florida International and their near-loss last week at Duke, I have no respect for the Hurricanes.

#36 Florida State - 28 @ #39 Maryland - 20
This is an odd game between the underachieving Seminoles (4-3, 2-3) and the overachieving Terrapins (5-2, 2-1). So I really have no clue what's going to happen here, but history shows that Florida State almost always beats Maryland.

#34 Wyoming - 26 @ #41 TCU - 10
Remember when TCU began the season #15 in the country. Oh yeah, it's true. What the heck happened to the Horned Frogs? Meanwhile over the past three weeks, Wyoming has quietly become one of the most dominant teams west of the Mississippi River. During this time they have a record of 3-0, outscoring their opponents 69-25, good enough to become #2 in the Mountain West Conference.

#10 Tennessee - 31 @ #30 South Carolina - 24
This is a tough game for me to pick. I have a lot of respect for the Vols, but a part of me wants to go with the upset. If you asked me earlier in the week I would have gone with South Carolina, but I am convincing myself that Tennessee has far too much talent to lose to the Gamecocks. Perhaps "closer than the experts think" but I like the Vols.

A gift from me to you

By request, I will post my preseason NCAA Men's Basketball rankings this weekend. There are a couple of other matters I need to tend too first so don't expect any basketball news until Sunday evening. Plus, I have a lot of research to do on the top teams in the land so that too will take some time as well.

In addition, I will begin posting the schedules of certain teams and evaluating their season ahead. Of course, Gonzaga and Maryland will top the list! I will also breakdown Syracuse's schedule by request. If you would like me to evaluate any other team's feel free to let me know by posting a comment!

Some Thoughts on my Rankings

There are a few debates I need to address, so I will save those for last. First I will take a look at the movers and shakers following this past weekend's games. So here we go:

Teams on the rise: #18 Boston College (+5), #30 South Carolina (+6), #34 Wyoming (+8), #35 Oregon State, (+6), #39 Maryland (+13), #40 Washington State (+13)

Teams on the slide: #19 Georgia Tech (-5), #27 Oregon (-10), #36 Florida State (-5), #37 Pittsburgh (-5), #45 NC State (-8), #48 Purdue (-10)

Game of the Week: #8 Clemson @ #24 Virginia Tech

Other Games to Watch: #29 Penn State @ #48 Purdue, #9 Notre Dame @ NR Navy, #20 Oklahoma @ #25 Missouri, #33 Georgia @ #13 Florida, #26 Miami (FL) @ #19 Georgia Tech, #46 Arizona State @ #44 Washington, #6 Texas @ #43 Texas Tech, #40 Washington State @ #47 UCLA, #36 Florida State @ #39 Maryland, #34 Wyoming @ #41 TCU

Upset Alert: NR Northern Illinois @ #38 Iowa, #10 Tennessee @ #30 South Carolina, #4 USC @ #35 Oregon State (call it a gut feeling)
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Now, to address the great debate that is my Top 5...in particular, West Virginia and Michigan. I have no objection to those who argue Michigan should be #2. Just keep in mind where those teams started the season at in my rankings. If you recall, my original rankings had West Virginia at #7 and Michigan at #19. To round out the Top 5, Ohio State has been #1 all along, USC was, and is once again, #4 in the rankings, while Louisville began the season at #12. So for all of you Wolverine fans (ehem, J Factor), you can make the argument that Michigan has been arguably the most impressive team in college football. With Ohio State being as dominant as everyone expected them to be, I do believe that when Ohio State plays at Michigan on November 18th, it will go down as 'Game of the Decade'. Yes you read that correctly! That will no doubt be either a #1/#2 or #1/#3 matchup, depending on the outcome of the West Virginia/Louisville game on Nov. 2nd.

Rutgers- Well it seems one of my loyal readers is a diehard fan of SUNJ, so I'll throw them a bone. Let's take a look at 7-0 Scarlet Knights' resume: a victory at UNC (21-16); 3 straight home wins vs. Illinois (33-0), Ohio (24-7), and Howard (56-7); a close victory at S. Florida (22-20); then two key wins at Navy (34-0) and Pitt (20-10). As far as I'm concerned, Rutgers' first four opponents were cupcakes. I was not impressed with their "near loss" at South Florida by any means. However, my opinion on Rutgers has changed drastically over the last two weeks. I actually expected Navy and Pitt to put up a fight and actually beat Rutgers. That wasn't the case by any means, as Navy got blown out by Rutgers, and Pitt looked like they were manhandled by a superior team. So I feel I am giving Rutgers the credit they deserve by moving them up the rankings four more spots, for the second week in a row, to #15. Right now, I can not forsee Rutgers being able to beat any of the 14 teams ahead of them, so they may have reached their ceiling, unless of course they are the benefactors of a major loss by one of the teams ahead of them.

The rest of the Undefeated Teams- Rather than going into detail about each team, I wil give a brief synopsis and forecast for each.

#1 Ohio State (8-0, 4-0)...biggest game(s) left: Nov. 18 vs. Michigan...As advertised, the Buckeyes are the best in the land, and they will show it by finishing the regular season undefeated after a close win vs. the Wolverines.

#2 West Virginia (7-0, 4-0)...biggest game(s) left: Nov. 2 @ Louisville, Nov. 16 @ Pitt, Dec. 2 vs. Rutgers...My biggest knock on this team is that they don't play all four quarters with the same intensity. They are either dominant during the first half and sluggish to finish, or vice versa. It is my belief that this team may be overrated at #2 and will soon falter when they face better teams. That being said, I expect them to lose at Louisville and possibly the home finale against Rutgers too (but I doubt it).

#3 Michigan (7-0, 4-0)...biggest game(s) left: Nov. 18 @ Ohio State...This will be a #1 vs. #2 matchup for the reasons listed above. I'm calling it now...'GAME OF THE DECADE'-->Saturday, 18 November 2006, #2-Michigan @ #1-Ohio State!!!

#4 USC (6-0, 4-0)...biggest game(s) left: Nov. 11 vs. Oregon, Nov. 18 vs. Cal, Nov. 25 @ Notre Dame, Dec. 2 @ UCLA...Provided they avoid the upset this week against SpeedyDave's Beavers, the Trojans should be 8-0 heading into the murderous 4-game stretch (listed above) to close the season. I say they lose 2 of the 4 (Cal and Notre Dame), finishing 10-2.

#5 Louisville (7-0, 2-0)...biggest game(s) left: Nov. 2 vs. WVU, Nov. 9 @ Rutgers, Nov. 25 @ Pitt...I have a lot of respect for this team considering they have fought through injuries to Brian Brohm (now back playing) and Michael Bush (will not return). If they beat WVU, which I think they will, they could go undefeated. But something in my gut tells me theymay play better against WVU than the following week at Rutgers. I can envision Rutgers playing spoilers against the Cardinals. So, I will call a 1-loss season for Louisville.

#15 Rutgers (7-0, 2-0)...biggest game(s) left: Nov. 9 vs. Louisville, Nov. 25 vs. Syracuse, Dec. 2 @ West Virginia...As hard as it is for me believe this, I think Rutgers will go 10-0 before losing. Then, they realize they are from New Jersey and get upset by Syracuse and possibly lose at West Virginia.


#16 Boise State (8-0, 4-0)...biggest game(s) left: none...There is no reason why the team with the blue turf should not go undefeated. Their key wins this year are against Oregon State, Wyoming, and Utah. Not bad, but certainly nothing to write to Grandma about. With a weak schedule, I can't imagine the Broncos finishing any higher than #10 even with an undefeated season.
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Thanks for reading my babbling. That will be all for now, I will try to post more frequently on specific teams (similar to above) if time allows. Otherwise, my next college football post will be in a week with the updated rankings. So long for now.

Week 8 Rankings

Unlike last time when I missed a week of rankings, I did update rankings for Week 7, I just didn't have time to post them. Much of my available time was occupied at the NWA Conference in Cleveland last week. More on that to come...and that will be a "no holds barred" blog too! Anyway, here are the updated rankings as of 10/23/06:

Week 5 Make that Week 6 Rankings

Folks, it has been a very busy couple of weeks. I did find the time to update my rankings last week, but did not get around to post and comment. Things are looking better now, so here are my latest rankings through Week 6:

As you can see there are some major changes! Let's take a look at the movers and shakers:

Teams on the rise: #9 Tennessee (+5), #11 California (+5), #13 Arkansas (+14), #22 Missouri, (+6), #24 Wisconsin (+10), #33 NC State (+17), #39 Utah (+6)

Teams on the slide: #14 Auburn (-12), #15 LSU (-10), #18 Oregon (-6), #19 Georgia (-8), #32 Texas Tech (-9), #34 Florida State (-16), #43 TCU (-17), #47 Purdue (-10)

Game of the Week: #3 Florida @ #14 Auburn

Other Games to Watch: #42 Wake Forest @ #33 NC State, #23 Rutgers @ #41 Navy, #22 Missouri @ #30 Texas A&M, #40 UCLA @ #18 Oregon, #44 Arizona State @ #4 USC

Upset Alert: #17 Virginia Tech @ #38 Boston College, #7 Michigan @ #25 Penn State

Week 4 Rankings

I am not going to fool with the formatting anymore. Screenshots work just the same. As for the the rankings, neither of the top 18 teams lost today, so I saw no need to change the rankings of those teams. I did mix it up from ranking #19 on. Penn State, Arizona State, and Boston College fall out of the top 25 this week. They are replaced by Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, and "welcome back to the top 25", California. Interestingly, both of my upset alerts came to fruition this week!

Teams on the rise: #19 California (+9 gain in ranks), #27 Arkansas (+15 gain in ranks), #31 Purdue (+6 in ranks), #38 Washington (+15 in ranks), #45 Houston (+6 in ranks), #47 Wake Forest (+5 in ranks)

Teams on the slide: #25 Alabama (-6 loss in ranks), #34 Arizona State (-14 in ranks), #39 Minnesota (-5 in ranks), #40 Boston College (-15 in ranks), #43 UCLA (-14 in ranks)
Game of the Week: #1-Ohio State @ #14-Iowa

Other Games to Watch: #2-Auburn @ #32-South Carolina; #25-Alabama @ #6-Florida; #31-Purdue @ #10-Notre Dame; #24-Texas Tech @ #28-Texas A&M; #13-Oregon @ #34-Arizona State; #45-Houston @ #30-Miami (FL)

Upset Alert: #22-Boise State @ #35-Utah; #23-Georgia Tech @ #11-Virginia Tech;

Week 4 College FB Picks

Since there are not too many big games this week, I am only predicting the following six games:

#23 Penn State-13 @ #1 Ohio State-17
I am not totally convinced that this game will be as close as I am prediciting. Perhaps my faith in Penn State is skewing my thoughts some. Offensively I just can not see Penn State matching up against Ohio State. Expect a big game out of my leading Heisman trophy candidate, Troy Smith.

#10 Notre Dame-48 @ #38 Michigan State-41
Both teams have great offenses (although Notre Dame did look bad last week) and I expect this one to be a barnburner. Michigan State will flirt with the upset, but Notre Dame prevails here.

#20 Arizona State-20 @ #28 California-48
In my opinion, both of these teams started the season overrated. That is no longer the case for Cal, after being humbled at Tennessee. I like what I am starting to see out of Cal lately and I expect them to begin playing up to expectations. I predict a big win for Cal which will move them back into my Top 25.

#33 Wisconsin-6 @ #9 Michigan-38
Both teams are 3-0, but Wisconsin has played some cupcakes. Let's see here, Michigan returns home after stomping Notre Dame on the road, 47-21; meanwhile Wisconsin travels to the big house after an unimpressive home win against San Diego State, 14-0. Hmm...will this game be close? I doubt it, Michigan rolls to 4-0.

#19 Alabama-18 @ #42 Arkansas-17
This strikes me as an odd game because I think I have Alabama rated too high and Arkansas too low. I admit, Alabama still has a great defense, but what about their offense. As for Arkansas, they are looking better since getting throttled by USC. Interestingly, both teams struggled to beat Vanderbilt this season. I wonder if either team will score 20 points here.

#29 UCLA-34 @ NR Washington-35
Call it a gut feeling, but I like Washington to pull off the biggest upset of the week. Looking back at the history book, the Huskies have not beat the Bruins since 2000, and the Bruins have won 8 of their last 9 games against the Huskies. So history is against me, but I like Washington after pulling off a big win last week against Fresno State. If they do win, they will have to score a lot of points to do so.

Verification of Last Week's Picks

I went 6-4 overall, so I could have done better. Here are the 6 good picks:

Prediction: Auburn over LSU, 13-10
Actual: Auburn over LSU, 7-3
Summary: As expected, this game was a defensive struggle with Auburn prevailing.

Prediction: Oregon over Oklahoma, 31-24
Actual: Oregon over Oklahoma, 34-33
Summary: An unbelievable finish and a royal screwjob for the Sooners. If the refs did their job correctly, Oklahoma should have won 33-20. Nevertheless, it ended up becoming a good call on my part.

Prediction: Louisville over Miami, 31-30
Actual: Louisville over, 31-7
Summary: Well I nailed half of this score! Did Miami even show up? Absolute domination by the Cardinals.

Prediction: Virginia Tech over Duke, 52-3
Actual: Virginia Tech over Duke, 36-0
Summary: Surprise, surprise, the Hokies blew out Duke. I am surprised the score wasn't worse than what it was though.

Prediction: USC over Nebraska, 49-24
Actual: USC over Nebraska, 28-10
Summary: Nebraska played fairly respectable, they did not get dominatd like everyone thought. Still a somewhat convincing victory for USC.

Prediction: Michigan State over Pitt, 30-27
Actual: Michigan State over Pitt, 38-23
Summary: Technically an upset, but I was not surprised by the result as I thought the Spartans were better.

As for the 4 bad picks:
Prediction: Notre Dame over Michigan, 34-20
Actual: Michigan over Notre Dame, 47-21
Summary: By far, my worst prediction of the week. Notre Dame looked abysmal. Kudos to SpeedyDave24 for his call on this game.

Prediction: Iowa State over Iowa, 20-14
Actual: Iowa over Iowa State, 27-17
Summary: Clearly Iowa is a much more dominant team with Drew Tate at QB.

Prediction: Florida State over Clemson, 22-16
Actual: Clemson over Florida State, 27-20
Summary: Florida State managed to win their first 2 games ugly. This time they got what they deserved. Can the Seminoles running game look any more anemic? Very underachieving.

Prediction: Tennessee over Florida, 26-23
Actual: Florida over Tennessee, 21-20
Summary: A very tight game as expected, however the Gators got the go-ahead score late.

Week 3 Rankings

I have no idea why there is such a huge gap below. Whatever, just scroll down for my rankings.

As of Sunday, September 17, 2006

Rank	Prev.	Team	Record	Result
1	1	Ohio State	(3-0, 0-0)	Won vs. Cincinnati, 37-7
2	2	Auburn	(3-0, 2-0)	Won vs. LSU, 7-3
3	5	USC	(2-0, 0-0)	Won vs. Nebraska, 28-10
4	6	West Virginia	(3-0, 0-0)	Won vs. Maryland, 45-24
5	4	LSU	(2-1, 0-1)	Lost @ Auburn, 7-3
6	7	Florida	(3-0, 1-0)	Won @ Tennessee, 21-20
7	8	Texas	(2-1, 0-0)	Won @ Rice, 52-7
8	12	Louisville	(3-0, 0-0)	Won vs. Miami, 31-7
9	17	Michigan	(3-0, 0-0)	Won @ Notre Dame, 47-21
10	3	Notre Dame	(2-1, 0-0)	Lost vs. Michigan, 47-21
11	11	Virginia Tech	(3-0, 2-0)	Won vs. Duke, 36-0
12	13	Georgia	(3-0, 1-0)	Won vs. UAB, 34-0
13	14	Oregon	(3-0, 1-0)	Won vs. Oklahoma, 34-33
14	16	Iowa	(3-0, 0-0)	Won vs. Iowa State, 27-17
15	19	TCU	(3-0, 0-0)	Won vs. Texas Tech, 12-3
16	29	Clemson	(2-1, 1-1)	Won @ Florida State, 27-21
17	18	Tennessee	(2-1, 0-1)	Lost vs. Florida, 21-20
18	9	Florida State	(2-1, 1-1)	Lost vs. Clemson, 27-17
19	21	Alabama	(3-0, 1-0)	Won @ Vanderbilt, 21-19
20	22	Arizona State	(3-0, 0-0)	Won @ Colorado, 21-3
21	15	Nebraska	(2-1, 0-0)	Lost @ USC, 28-10
22	23	Oklahoma	(2-1, 0-0)	Lost @ Oregon, 34-33
23	24	Penn State	(2-1, 0-0)	Won vs. Youngstown State, 37-3
24	25	Boise State	(3-0, 0-0)	Won @ Wyoming, 17-10
25	27	Boston College	(3-0, 1-0)	Won vs. BYU, 30-23 (2OT)

Rankings 26-50:


Game of the Week: #23-Penn State @ #1-Ohio State

Other Games to Watch: #33-Wisconsin @ #9-Michigan; #36-Tulsa @ #49-Navy; #20-Arizona State @ #28-California; #10-Notre Dame @ #38-Michigan State

Upset Alert: #29-UCLA @ NR-Washington; #19-Alabama @ #42-Arkansas

Nick Markakis is my Hero

What a talented player on an otherwise awful team! The O's certainly have a talented, young player in Markakis. In fact, he would be a serious contender for Rookie of the Year if the O's were a better team. Even if they were better, I admit he would probably lose out to pitching phenom Francisco Liriano of the Minnesota Twins. With Liriano out for the remainder of the season though, Markakis may gain some swing votes during the last few weeks of the season. This reminds me, I predicted Markakis to win AL ROY when I made my 2006 MLB predictions back in April. That may be the only good prediction I made though, haha!

Markakis, the AL Rookie of the Month for August, is currently batting .306, with 15 HR's, and 58 RBI. During the month of August, he went on a tear, batting .354, with 10 HR, and 26 RBI. August featured the best game of his young career with a 3 HR game on Aug. 22 against the Twins. With a month as good as this, it is easy for people to forget that he batted .403 for the month of July!!

I just can not say enough good things about this kid. He is a promising lefty with a sweet swing on my favorite team. He is one of the few reasons I can cheer for the O's. I am glad the Orioles were patient during the course of the season while Markakis experienced his growing pains. Allowing Markakis to mature as a big-league hitter, rather than sending him to AAA when his average was .221 through June 13 was an excellent move on Baltimore's part. In fact, it is one of the very few good things I can say about the O's front office. Hopefully they will be smart for a change, lock Markakis up, and build around him, Tejada, and Roberts. Well I had better stop now before I get onto that subject again.

I am looking forward to watching Markakis during the last couple of weeks of the season. From what I have seen so far, I think he will finish first or second in the ROY voting and has the potential to be a perennial All-Star in the future. It will be a long time before I have high hopes about the Orioles again, but I do have high hopes for Nick Markakis. Its good to see a young, talented player in an Oriole uniform again. This is probably the best season for an Oriole rookie since Cal Ripken in 1982. Now that is an enjoyable comparison to think about, so I will end on that note.

Friday Night Picks

Just for fun, I will select 10 college football games and predict the score for each. I got the idea after checking out SpeedyDave24's blog. I highly recommend you check out his blog at http://www.xanga.com/speedydave24. Here are my picks:

#4 LSU-10 @ #2 Auburn-13
Again, this will obviously be the game of the week. Since 2002, the home team has been the winner of this game each year. I expect Auburn to continue that tradition in a battle of defense and field position.

#17 Michigan-20 @ #3 Notre Dame-34
Michigan, for some reason or another, seems to have trouble against Notre Dame under head coach Lloyd Carr. Notre Dame is a better team anyway; Irish improve to 3-0.

#10 Miami-30 @ #12 Louisville-31
This is a rematch of the 2004 thriller at Miami. In that game, Louisville went up 24-7 at halftime, only to lose 41-38. This time around the game will be played in Louisville and the Cardinals will be seeking redemption. I like Louisville, barely, in another thriller.

#23 Oklahoma-24 @ #14 Oregon-31
This will be the third year in a row they have faced each other, first time at Oregon. The Sooners won both of the previous two matchups but I don't see that happening again. Quite frankly I can not fathom why the major polls have Oklahoma ranked so much higher than Oregon when I have it the other way around. The Ducks are a solid team and tough to beat at home. In the end, Oregon overcomes Heisman hopeful Adrian Peterson to show they are a BCS contender.

#29 Clemson-16 @ #9 Florida State-22
Yet another Bowden Bowl...will the home team win again? That has been the trend since 2002. Interestingly, the teams have split the past four games, with neither game being all that close. That being said, Clemson has outscored Florida State 114-113 since '02. This year, both teams look unimpressive and underachieving. I expect Florida State to win ugly...once again.

#15 Nebraska-24 @ #5 USC-49
The running joke is whether or not USC will run up 50 points on the Cornhuskers. I say close, but no cigar. I find it hard to believe that this game will be anywhere close to what the rankings suggest. Nebraska is not ready for the national spotlight again. USC wins big at home.

#7 Florida-23 @ #18 Tennessee-26
I told an old college buddy of mine from Salisbury U., who is now seeking his Masters at Tennessee, that I would root for his Vols this year. Besides, I really don't care for any other team in the SEC, especially Florida for whom I hate. So I am going with the mild upset in this game. Most of the experts seem to think that Tennessee is not ready for type of game, but I heard that before the Cal game. Next thing I know, Tennessee is up 35-0 in a hurry. Look for Tennessee's defense to outshine Florida's for the win.

NR Michigan State-30 @ #37 Pitt-27
I suppose this will constitute as an upset since Michigan State is not ranked. Both teams have been impressive through two weeks, but I think the Spartans have more talent than the Panthers. Besides, Michigan State is always impressive during their first five games of a season before their yearly collapse.

#41 Iowa State-20 @ #16 Iowa-14
Year after year, Iowa is the favorite in this bitter rivalry. However the Cyclones have won 6 of the last 8 meetings against the Iowa Hawkeyes. I like the upset special once again, as my "favorite college football team named for a weather term" pulls off another stunner.

#11 Virginia Tech-52 @ NR Duke-3
Just for fun I decided to pick the score for what I believe will be the blowout of the week. I also take comfort in thinking about Duke, a team I loathe, getting crushed. If the Hokies score early and often before the starters come out, they may put up 60.

Week 2 College FB Rankings

Game of the Week: #4-LSU @ #2-Auburn

Other Games to Watch: #17-Michigan @ #3-Notre Dame; #10-Miami (FL) @ #12-Louisville; #23-Oklahoma @ #14-Oregon; #20-Texas Tech @ #19-TCU; #29-Clemson @ #9-Florida State; #15-Nebraska @ #5-USC; #7-Florida @ #18-Tennessee

Upset Alert: NR-Michigan State @ #37-Pitt; #41-Iowa State @ #16-Iowa; #49-UAB @ #13-Georgia; NR-Troy @ #26-Georgia Tech

A quick thought on the Packers

I was just thinking that after watching Penn State's disgusting performance today, I would have a tough time dealing with a similar result from Green Bay on Sunday. Of course Chicago is the favorite to win even though the game is at Lambeau. Surprisingly though, the latest line has the Bears as only a 3.5 pt. favorite over the Packers. I will keep the faith that the Packers will pull out a big win in the season opener though. Perhaps its blind faith, but I know what the Packers are capable of. They have the talent to make a run for the division, they just can't seem to get all the key parts in sync with one another. Unfortuantely I will not be able to watch the game as KDKA will air the Cowboys/Jaguars at 4PM instead...BOO! I guess I will have to follow the game over the internet with my cheesehead on!

Embarrassing Game

Penn State was absolutely dominated by Notre Dame today. What a shame too. This was the first matchup in 14 years between the two powerhouse college football programs and Penn State forgot to show up for it. Coming into the game I really felt like Penn State could compete with Notre Dame and possibly even leave South Bend with a victory. Boy was I wrong, and thankfully I did pick Notre Dame in my College Pick'Em league. Let's break it down...

First and foremost, Notre Dame did an excellent job at tiring out Penn State's best player on defense, Paul Posluszny. With the endless amount of dumpoffs to the TE's, as well as a few more to WR's and RB's, it seemed like Posluszny was running all over the place trying to make tackles. By attacking Penn State's defense at the heart with a strong passing game, Penn State could never put pressure on Brady Quinn. When a prolific passer has all the time in the world...game over.

A corollary to Notre Dame's strong passing game was the incredibly weak secondary of Penn State. I have never seen so many wide open receivers in my life. Seriously, what were the DB's on Penn State doing out there? Penn State's pass coverage was wretched today, enough said.

As for Penn State's offense, there were two glaring problems. QB Anthony Morelli, albeit talent, looked very inexperienced and can not be counted on in a big game. Secondly, the Penn State offensive line was manhandled at times today. On several occasions, Notre Dame's defensive line was able to blow past the Penn State O-line to get to the quarterback. With Notre Dame's offense firing on all cylinders, Notre Dame's defense could focus solely on the Penn State passing game as it quickly became too far out-of-hand to run the ball often.

So what was good about Penn State today? Tony Hunt looked great again...until the Nittany Lions had to focus exclusively on passing. Also, Penn St. really did move the ball well throughout much of the first half, they just made too many mistakes (missed field goal attempts, turnovers, etc.). Giving a top-5 team extra opportunities is a huge mistake. Had they gone into the half trailing 13-6 rather than 20-0, perhaps things would have been different, one can only speculate though.

Clearly Notre Dame is a legitimate contender for the national championship, provided this is the true Fighting Irish, and not the team that played Georgia Tech last week. As for Penn State, I thought they were a top-15 team before this game. Now I would have to rank them near the bottom of the top-25. They play Youngstown St. next week so they have a golden opportunity to bounce back and show what they are truly capable of doing. They had better do so too, as they play at #1 Ohio State in two weeks. Hopefully the Nittany Lions can turn it around in a hurry.

A Week Later...

Ok, it took a lot longer for me to post than I expected. Needless to say my schedule remains just as busy as it was before. I suppose that is life though. From now on I will not make any promises on posting, I will just do the best I can, when I can. A lot has happened lately so I am not really sure where to begin. In time I will backtrack and comment on various things that happened over the past month or so, but not now. For now I will briefly comment on how life is treating me lately.

Like every one else there have been ups and downs, probably more ups though. I really like my schedule of classes this semester, primarily because 4/5 are weather related. Finally!!! The other class is a basic computer science class which seems pretty simple so far. In addition to college classes, I am still working at the bookstore and at HSTV for my internship, albeit lesser work hours for both. I am fortunate to have two bosses that are willing to work around my schedule to allow me to focus as much time on my education as needed. Everything is still going well at the bookstore. As for the internship, I have learned a lot over the last few weeks. I can not put a price on the experience I have gained at the station. It has been wonderful to get my feet wet in broadcast meteorology. Hopefully my time there will give me the extra edge I need when the time comes to send out resume tapes. Another thing I have learned is that the television industry can be brutal. I was told this before, but I truly understand now that I have experienced a taste of it. This is a field where you have to be a jerk and selfish at times. I hate that but that is just the way it is. I suppose if you are not a jerk you will eventually get screwed, and probably often too. So I guess I will pretend I am Alice Cooper at work ("No More Mr. Nice Guy") and revert back to my normal self away from work. Hmm, I don't know what else to say now.

I am happy that when I leave Cal U. I will specialize in both broadcast meteorology and operational meteorology. If there comes a point in time where I just can not stand being a tailhole and want to grab meteorology by the balls, I can always re-direct my interests towards the operational aspect of things. Either way I will still be a meteorologist; that remains unchanged. I feel this is what I was born to do and no matter what I will stick with it.

That's all for now, I won't bore you as much next time. I plan on talking more about sports over the next few days as it is arguably the best time of year to be a sports fan.

My 2006 College Football Rankings

For those of you who are unfamiliar with my rankings, I began doing this a few years ago for both college football and college basketball after being disappointed with the "more popular" rankings. I found that the bigger polls are slow to respond to drastic changes in a team's performance and are hellbent to stick with their original preseason rankings as much as possible. Also, especially with the coaches poll, it is obvious to see that the coaches who vote obviously do not have the time to carefully evaluate all teams worthy of being ranked. Well, I guess I don't either, but I have had a favorable response to my rankings in the past, so I guess I know what I am doing! Here are my inaugural 2006 rankings:

Rank...Team.............Record..........Last Week's Result.....Prev. Rank

1. Ohio State.....(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. N. Illinois, 35-12...---
2. Texas.............(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. N. Texas, 56-7......---
3. Auburn..........(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Wash. St., 40-14...---
4. USC................(1-0, 0-0)...Won @ Arkansas, 50-14....---
5. Notre Dame...(1-0, 0-0)...Won @ GA Tech, 14-10.....---
6. LSU.................(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. LA-Laf., 45-3.......---
7. West Virginia.(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Marshall, 42-10...---
8. Florida............(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Sou. Miss., 34-7....---
9. Florida State..(1-0, 1-0)...Won @ Miami (FL), 13-10.---
10. Miami (FL).....(0-1, 0-1)...Lost vs. Florida St., 13-10..---
11. Virginia Tech..(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. N'eastern, 38-0....---
12. Louisville.........(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Kentucky, 59-28..---
13. Georgia............(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. West. KY, 48-12...---
14. Iowa.................(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Montana, 41-7......---
15. Penn State.......(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Akron, 34-16.........---
16. Oregon.............(1-0, 1-0)...Won vs. Stanford, 48-10....---
17. Nebraska.........(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. LA Tech, 49-10....---
18. Tennessee........(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. California, 35-18..---
19. Michigan...........(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Vanderbilt, 27-7..---
20. Clemson............(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. FL Atlantic, 54-6.---
21. TCU...................(1-0, 0-0)...Won @ Baylor, 17-7...........---
22. Texas Tech.......(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. SMU, 35-3............---
23. Alabama............(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Hawaii, 25-17.......---
24. Arizona State....(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. North. AZ, 35-14.---
25. Oklahoma..........(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. UAB, 17-10..........---

Here are the teams I have ranked #26-#50, in order: Georgia Tech, Boise State, UCLA, Tulsa, Minnesota, South Carolina, California, Texas A&M, Rutgers, Wyoming, Wisconsin, Fresno State, UNLV, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Purdue, Arizona, South Florida, Oregon State, Northwestern, Utah, Iowa State, UAB, Toledo, Northern Illinois