Baseball Postseason Odds

Pretty cool website that takes the current standings, simulates the rest of the season a million times and projects each team's final record and odds of making the playoffs.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

As of Friday, June 8, the Orioles are projected to finish 83-79, with a 14.33% chance of making the playoffs. I say 80-82 is more likely with a 0% chance of making the playoffs.

AFC Breakdown

AFC EAST

I think most people are in agreement that its the Patriots and then a large gap between them and every one else. The rich got richer, bringing in Randy Moss, the beast Adalius Thomas, Donte' Stallworth, and Wes Welker. With their 14-2 record, I had them going undefeated in the division, but a strong Jets team with newly acquired Thomas Jones will play them tough both games and may beat them in New Jersey. Speaking of the Jets, I have them at 9-7, but they could easily win an extra game, maybe even two. Either way, they are a wildcard team. Buffalo had a great draft (one that I am jealous over as a Packer fan), but that won't help them on the field until the latter half of the season. I see Buffalo struggling early, but play strong during the final half of the season to finish 7-9. As for Miami, wretched. I think Trent Green wins two more games than my previous record for them, but that still only makes them a last place team with a 5-11 record. Too many problems in Miami at too many positions.

AFC CENTRAL

Interesting division and possibly the most competitive. I like Baltimore to win the division with a formula that is more of the same. Excellent defense, Matt Stover, safe passing on offense, and now an improved running game with Willis McGahee. Pittsburgh is tough to predict, but I like them to get a wildcard with a 9-7 record. Great move bringing in former Pitt Panther, Kevan Barlow. Him and Parker out of the backfield will be formidable for opposing teams. I find it interesting that Pittsburghers are more pessimistic than I am about the Steelers' upcoming season. Listening to them you would think the world is coming to an end and they will finish under .500. as great as that would be, the Steelers are too talented for that. As for Cincinnati, their season doesn't begin until after their bye in Week 5, because I have them losing their first four games of the season. Too much turmoil this offseason, but they get it going in the second half. Much like Buffalo, too little, too late. A lot of people see Cleveland improving after arguably the best draft in the league, but I don't think so. Their schedule gets real tough after their early bye and they're going to have to really improve to be a 6 win team or better.

AFC SOUTH

Definitely the Colts here, but with a very tough schedule for the defending champs, I lowered their record from 2006 down to 11-5. Still as strong of a team though. I forsee a bit of a sophomore slump for Vince Young and the Titans, so I keep them at 8-8 while others see them improving. I may even be generous because after this season LenDale White will show he is a bust, leaving Vince Young to do it all himself. Without any help it will be a tough season. Look for rookie Chris Henry to take over by the end of the season. Jacksonville at 6-10 could very well be my biggest bust. On paper, I look at this team and I see a lot of injury-prone players with mediocre talent. Yet they somehow get it done on the field, so their wins and losses could be flipped from my prediction. I like the Texans' move in trading for Matt Schaub, but they really blackballed David Carr. IT wasn't Carr's fault! HELLO!! Your o-line stinks! In fact, Carr was very efficient last year....when he was able to throw the ball. Schaub will not be able to do any better if he's getting sacked left and right.

AFC WEST

I like Denver here and I think they will be fairly dominating at 12-4. GREAT move bringing in Travis Henry, I see him being a 1500-yd back. San Diego struggles a bit with so many coaching changes, but with so much talent on the field, they should at least be a .500 team and I have them at 9-7. When will the Chargers ever turn the corner? Kansas City...what are you doing? Damon Huard overachieved last year and Brodie Croyle has a weak arm. Your o-line is depleted, forcing Tony Gonzalez to block more, your receivers have always stunk, and you have no QB, leaving LJ as your only offensive weapon. Good thing for you, your defense is improved, but if you have trouble scoring points, you will still lose a lot of games, hence the 5-11 record. As for Oakland, more of the same.

AFC Honors:

Best QB...Carson Palmer (CIN) [4225 Passing Yards, 34 TD's, 10 INT's, QB Rating: 107.8]
Best RB...LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) [1675 Rush. Yds., 23 Rushing TD's, 475 Rec. Yds., 2 Rec. TD's, 2150 Total Yds., 25 Total TD's]
Best WR...Chad Johnson (CIN) [90 Receptions, 1339 Receiving Yards, 10 TD's]
Best Defensive Player...Adalius Thomas (NE) [13 Sacks, 82 Tackles]
Comeback Player of the Year...Randy Moss (NE) [63 Receptions, 982 Rec. Yds., 10 TD's]
Breakout Players of the Year...Jay Cutler (DEN) [2600 Pass. Yds., 13 TD's] & Laurence Maroney (NE) [1300 Rush. Yds. , 8 TD's]
Best Rookie...Marshawn Lynch (BUF) [800 Rushing Yds., 6 TD's]
Best Coach...Bill Belichick (NE)

Next week, I will breakdown the highly debated NFC.

2007 NBA Mock Draft

Just for fun...

2007 ESPN NBA Draft Machine

...I know nothing about the NBA, so take it with a grain of salt.

2007 NFL Predictions, Part 1

	AFC East							NFC East
	Team	W	L	PCT				Team	W	L	PCT
*yz	New England	14	2	0.875			yz	Dallas	11	5	0.688
x	N.Y. Jets	9	7	0.563			x	Philadelphia	11	5	0.688
	Buffalo	7	9	0.438				N.Y. Giants	7	9	0.438
	Miami	3	13	0.188				Washington	5	11	0.313
	AFC North							NFC North
	Team	W	L	PCT				Team	W	L	PCT
y	Baltimore	12	4	0.750			y	Green Bay	9	7	0.563
x	Pittsburgh	9	7	0.563				Chicago	9	7	0.563
	Cincinnati	7	9	0.438				Minnesota	5	11	0.313
	Cleveland	4	12	0.250				Detroit	5	11	0.313
	AFC South							NFC South
	Team	W	L	PCT				Team	W	L	PCT
y	Indianapolis	11	5	0.688			*yz	New Orleans	13	3	0.813
	Tennessee	8	8	0.500			x	Carolina	10	6	0.625
	Jacksonville	6	10	0.375				Atlanta	5	11	0.313
	Houston	6	10	0.375				Tampa Bay	5	11	0.313
	AFC West							NFC West
	Team	W	L	PCT				Team	W	L	PCT
yz	Denver	12	4	0.750			y	St. Louis	10	6	0.625
	San Diego	9	7	0.563				San Francisco	9	7	0.563
	Kansas City	5	11	0.313				Seattle	8	8	0.500
	Oakland	3	13	0.188				Arizona	8	8	0.500
	AFC Wild Card							NFC Wild Card
6-	Pittsburgh Steelers						6-	Carolina Panthers
3-	Baltimore Ravens						3-	St. Louis Rams
5-	New York Jets						5-	Philadelphia Eagles
4-	Indianapolis Colts						4-	Green Bay Packers
	AFC Divisional Round							NFC Divisional Round
4-	Indianapolis Colts						4-	Green Bay Packers
1-	New England Patriots						1-	New Orleans Saints
3-	Baltimore Ravens						3-	St. Louis Rams
2-	Denver Broncos						2-	Dallas Cowboys
	AFC Conference Championship							NFC Conference Championship
2-	Denver Broncos						2-	Dallas Cowboys
1-	New England Patriots						1-	New Orleans Saints
	SUPER BOWL XLII
	New England Patriots over New Orleans Saints

My Mock NFL Draft

1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell (QB), LSU
2. Atlanta Falcons - Calvin Johnson (WR), Georgia Tech [traded from Detroit w/ 5th Rd. Pick (#139)...for 1st Rd. Pick (#8), 2nd Rd. Pick (#39), 2nd Rd. Pick (#44), and 4th Rd. Pick (#109)]
3. Cleveland Browns - Brady Quinn (QB), Notre Dame
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gaines Adams (DE), Clemson
5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas (OT), Wisconsin
   
6. Chicago Bears - Patrick Willis (LB), Mississippi [traded from Washington for LB Lance Briggs and 2nd Rd. Pick (#37)]
7. Minnesota Vikings - Adrian Peterson (RB), Oklahoma
8. Detroit Lions - LaRon Landry (FS), LSU [see above, traded from Atlanta]
9. Miami Dolphins - Amobi Okoye (DT), Louisville
10. Houston Texans - Levi Brown (OT), Penn State
11. San Francisco 49'ers - Jamaal Anderson (DE), Arkansas
12. Buffalo Bills - Leon Hall (CB), Michigan
13. St. Louis Rams - Adam Carriker (DE), Nebraska
14. Carolina Panthers - Reggie Nelson (FS), Florida
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Darrelle Revis (CB), Pitt
16. Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch (RB), Cal
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Michael Griffin (FS), Texas
18. Cincinnati Bengals - Aaron Ross (CB), Texas
19. Tennessee Titans - Robert Meachem (WR), Tennessee
20. New York Giants - Paul Posluszny (LB), Penn State
21. Denver Broncos - Joe Staley (OT), Central Michigan
22. Dallas Cowboys - Dwayne Jarrett (WR), USC
23. Kansas City Chiefs - Ben Grubbs (OG), Auburn
24. New England Patriots - Jon Beason (LB), Miami
25. New York Jets - Greg Olsen (TE), Miami
26. Philadelphia Eagles - Jarvis Moss (DE), Florida
27. New Orleans Saints - Lawrence Timmons (LB), Florida State
28. New England Patriots - Chris Houston (CB), Arkansas
29. Baltimore Ravens - Justin Blalock (OT), Texas
30. San Diego Chargers - Ted Ginn Jr. (WR), Ohio State
31. Washington Redskins - Justin Harrell (DT), Tennessee [see above, traded from Chicago]
32. Indianapolis Colts - Alan Branch (DT), Michigan
    

2007 MLB All-Fantasy Team

For a detailed analysis and rankings of players at each position, please refer to Dave's Xanga Site (2nd link on the right). Here are my 1st, 2nd, and 3rd team all-fantasy players, and all-phenom team:

1st Team All-Fantasy
C - Joe Mauer (Minnesota Twins)
1B - Albert Pujols (St. Louis Cardinals)
2B - Chase Utley (Philadelphia Phillies)
SS - Derek Jeter (New York Yankees)
3B - Miguel Cabrera (Florida Marlins)
OF - Vladimir Guerrero (Los Angeles Angels)
OF - Grady Sizemore (Cleveland Indians)
OF - Carl Crawford (Tampa Bay Devil Rays)
DH - Travis Hafner (Cleveland Indians)
SP - Johan Santana (Minnesota Twins)
SP - Roy Halladay (Toronto Blue Jays)
SP - Chris Carpenter (St. Louis Cardinals)
SP - Brandon Webb (Arizona Diamondbacks)
SP - Roy Oswalt (Houston Astros)
CL - Mariano Rivera (New York Yankees)

2nd Team All-Fantasy
C - Brian McCann (Atlanta Braves)
1B - Ryan Howard (Philadelphia Phillies)
2B - Brian Roberts (Baltimore Orioles)
SS - Miguel Tejada (Baltimore Orioles)
3B - David Wright (New York Mets)
OF - Alfonso Soriano (Chicago Cubs)
OF - Vernon Wells (Toronto Blue Jays)
OF - Matt Holliday (Colorado Rockies)
DH - David Ortiz (Boston Red Sox)
SP - Carlos Zambrano (Chicago Cubs)
SP - Justin Verlander (Detroit Tigers)
SP - John Smoltz (Atlanta Braves)
SP - Barry Zito (San Francisco Giants)
SP - Mike Mussina (New York Yankees)
CL - Francisco Rodriguez (Los Angeles Angels)

3rd Team All-Fantasy
C - Victor Martinez (Cleveland Indians)
1B - Justin Morneau (Minnesota Twins)
2B - Robinson Cano (New York Yankees)
SS - Jose Reyes (New York Mets)
3B - Alex Rodriguez (New York Yankees)
OF - Jason Bay (Pittsburgh Pirates)
OF - Carlos Beltran (New York Mets)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle Mariners)
DH - Jim Thome (Chicago White Sox)
SP - Ervin Santana (Los Angeles Angels)
SP - Rich Harden (Oakland Athletics)
SP - Erik Bedard (Baltimore Orioles)
SP - Jake Peavy (San Diego Padres)
SP - Tim Hudson (Atlanta Braves)
CL - Joe Nathan (Minnesota Twins)

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1st Team Fantasy Phenoms (Under 25 and previously unmentioned)
C - Russell Martin (Los Angeles Dodgers)
1B - Prince Fielder (Milwaukee Brewers)
2B - Josh Barfield (Cleveland Indians)
SS - Hanley Ramirez (Florida Marlins)
3B - Ryan Zimmerman (Washington Nationals)
OF - Nick Markakis (Baltimore Orioles)
OF - Jeff Francoeur (Atlanta Braves)
OF - Jeremy Hermida (Florida Marlins)
SP - Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners)
SP - Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies)
SP - Jeremy Sowers (Cleveland Indians)
SP - Scott Kazmir (Tampa Bay Devil Rays)
SP - Anibal Sanchez (Florida Marlins)
CL - Huston Street (Oakland Athletics)

How did my bracket go?

In a word...mediocre.

Midwest Region: 9-6
West Region: 10-5
East Region: 10-5
South Bracket: 10-5

5/8 Elite 8 Teams, 2/4 Final 4 Teams, 0/2 Final 2 Teams

I certainly didn't do bad, but I didn't do great either. I was just plain average throughout the entire tournament it seemed, then withering away at the end. Of 63 tournament games, my record was 39-24 (.619) and I had 76 points in my pool. To put it in perspective, my pool's winner was 41-22 with 103 points. Unlike me, the winner won at the end when it mattered most, as he picked Florida to go all the way. With a predicted final of Georgetown over Kansas, I didn't have much of a chance once the final four rolled around.

This makes it seven years since I have won my own pool, the last time I won was back in 2000 during my senior year of high school. Ugh, I have had a couple of senior years at two different colleges since then! Oh well, there's always next year I suppose.

Now, on to my baseball predictions.....