Update on October 2011 (warmest ever?) in GFK

Through October 24th, the mean monthly temperature has been 53.2°F here in Grand Forks. Through October 16th, it stood at 58.9°F. High temperatures through the work week look to top out at seasonable values in the mid to upper 40s. Then for the weekend, ridging should allow for a warm-up, with an abnormally warm Halloween of 60°F possible. With average temperatures in the mid to upper 30s this week, then mid to upper 40s for the weekend, it will continue to fall. The all-time record warmest October for GFK occurred in 1973, with a mean monthly temperature of 50.1°F. Although we are still 3.1°F above that mark, I suspect we will fall just short of the record within a degree or two. This warm stretch of days is a good example of what a long-duration positive Arctic Oscillation, or AO, (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif) can do for Northern Plains weather.

23°F

We had a morning low of 23°F this morning and as of 10am, it is still only 32°F. I doubt we will reach 45°F for a high today, so definitely below normal. Looking back I can't say with any certainty if I have ever experienced a morning this cold, but I highly doubt I have.

After the below normal temperatures today and tomorrow, we should have a few days at or slightly above normal. Then latest forecasts show a cold snap for the period of 10/25 - 10/28. If that pans out, it will may seriously hurt our chances of having the warmest October ever. I would like to see the record broken, but I suspect we may fall just short.

Missouri Blue Norther - Nov. 11, 1911

A friend and colleague passed along a couple of links to some research being done by a few students at the University of Missouri concerning the "Blue Norther" of November 11th, 1911. An impressive cold wave pushed into Missouri, causing 24-hour temperature drops of 60-80°F, with many locations falling 30-50°F in less than two hours!

I love going back and looking at past weather events, so I was delighted to look into this for the first time. For more information on this fascinating case study, check out these links:

Students dig into old news files to report on 1911 storm
November 11, 1911 Weather Map

Record Warmest October?

Temperatures in Grand Forks (GFK) have trended much closer to normal over the past few days. When I last posted, I had listed temperature departures for the first eight days of the month. During the stretch, we started off the month with an average daily temperature departure of +17.87°F.

Since then, GFK has had the following temperature departures: +5, +11, +13, +15, +5, +1, +3, and +4. The first thing I noticed is that we have trended closer to normal the past four days. However, we have now gone halfway through October and have been above normal every single day! That is just incredible to think about.

Our average temperature for October is now at 58.9°F, while our daily temperature departure through 10/16 now stands at +12.5°F. Comparing that to the GFK climatological normals, our normal mean temperature for October is 44.3°F. The warmest October on record in GFK occurred in 1973, with a monthly mean temperature of 50.1°F, or +5.8°F above normal.

We stand a chance of breaking the record for warmest October ever. Just doing some quick math, our average daily temperature for the remainder of the month is going to have to be warmer than 40.04°F (daily departure of -1.74°F from 10/17 through 10/31) to break the record. Certainly, it would only take one cold snap at the end of the month to jeopardize our chances. So the math says it is still too early to say if this will be a record breaking month, but it certainly has been a warm start nonetheless.

10/10 College Football Rankings

...Rank|Last|Team|Record (Overall, Conference)...

1. (1) LSU (6-0, 3-0)
2. (2) Wisconsin (5-0, 1-0)
3. (3) Oklahoma (5-0, 2-0)
4. (4) Alabama (6-0, 3-0)
5. (5) Stanford (5-0, 3-0)
6. (6) Boise State (5-0, 0-0)
7. (7) Oklahoma State (5-0, 2-0)
8. (9) Clemson (6-0, 3-0)
9. (12) Oregon (4-1, 2-0)
10. (15) Georgia Tech (6-0, 3-0)
11. (17) Arkansas (5-1, 1-1)
12. (21) Michigan (6-0, 2-0)
13. (24) Illinois (6-0, 2-0)
14. (NR) Kansas State (5-0, 2-0)
15. (NR) West Virginia (5-1, 1-0)
16. (NR) Arizona State (5-1, 3-0)
17. (20) Houston (6-0, 2-0)
18. (22) Auburn (4-2, 2-1)
19. (10) Nebraska (5-1, 1-1)
20. (11) Baylor (4-1, 1-1)
21. (18) Texas (4-1, 1-1)
22. (13) South Carolina (5-1, 3-1)
23. (8) Florida (4-2, 2-2)
24. (16) Virginia Tech (5-1, 1-1)
25. (23) Texas A&M (3-2, 1-1)

Dropped from rankings: #14 South Florida, #19 TCU, #25 Navy

Others receiving votes: Cincinnati, Georgia, Louisiana-Lafayette, Michigan State, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Penn State, Rutgers, SMU, South Florida, Southern Miss, TCU, Temple, Texas Tech, USC, Wake Forest, Washington, Western Michigan

Northern Heat

I see it's been a couple of weeks since I last checked in. Since I last posted, an incredible warm stretch moved into the northern Plains. For the first week of October in Grand Forks, the average high temperature is in the low 60s, with average low temperatures in the upper 30s, for an average temperature around 50°F. Take a look at these daily temperatures and temperature departures from normal for the October 1st-8th:

Date...High...Low...Avg...Departure From Normal
10/1.....76.....42.....59.....+9
10/2.....83.....46.....65.....+15
10/3.....83.....49.....66.....+17
10/4.....84.....49.....67.....+18
10/5.....89.....60.....75.....+27
10/6.....82.....61.....72.....+24
10/7.....77.....62.....70.....+23
10/8.....66.....48.....57.....+10

That's just incredible to have six consecutive days +15 and three of those days being +27, +24, and +23.  Also of note is the cool front that passed through on the 7th. When I arrived at work at 3:45pm that day, I was greeted with sustained winds of 40 mph gusting to 60 mph and blowing dust. That 60 mph gust was another rarity for me, especially since it was not associated with a tropical system or thunderstorm.

Today's high/low was 60/41 which is much closer to normal...just a few degrees above normal since 58/35 is our normal high/low for today. Yeah those average temperatures really plummet in North Dakota during autumn.

That's all for now....things could get interesting this weekend.