The Pains of a True Oriole Fan

It has been a tumultuous week for every die-hard O's fan. Frustration, agony, anger, near-apathy, relief, anger again, surprised, cautiously optimistic, sympathy, relieved again. The latter four emotions have all occurred since I initially announced I would blog on Perlozzo's firing. A lot has been said by others regarding the recent chain of events that has unfolded, so I will keep this as succinct as possible. But I love my team and have a lot I want to say so this will probably be longer than I intend.

The Bullpen
There are many reasons why Perlozzo was fired, but this is the biggest of them all. Never in my life have I seen a group of pitchers continue to be as wretched as these bums, night after night. Certainly some were better than others, and guys like Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford may have been the best of the bunch, but that's not saying a whole lot. Chris Ray has had a 'sophomore slump' but I kind of expected that. Danys Baez has thrown his name into the hat for the highly competitive title of "worst Oriole free agent signing." Someone give me $19 million and I'll show you my 7.00 ERA. Todd Williams was even worse and subsequently released. Too little too late, or a sign of things to come?

Sam Perlozzo
I initially felt this was the right move for all the wrong reasons. Perlozzo strikes me as a great man, a great coach, but a mediocre manager. But that's ok, he was new at it. Yes, he made some bad moves in mismanaging the bullpen, but then again, look what he had to work with. A $42 million revamped bullpen, straight down the crapper. Starting pitching has been phenomenal but they are young and get tired early and reach high pitch counts at times. When you need three innings from the worst bullpen in baseball (again), night-in and night-out, problems are bound to ensue. Things worsened each night, and as the saying goes, "you can't fire 25 players," even if you should. It's clear now he was the scapegoat and hung out to dry by those who will not accept for guilt for the Orioles' misfortunes. This became evident after reading Mike Burke's column from the Cumberland Times-News, featuring Perlozzo's initial thoughts on being fired. A great article that really made me sympathize with Perlozzo.

Mike Flanagan & Jim Duquette
This "amazing GM duo" turned out to be a couple of duds. As I said in November, acquiring Jaret Wright was the most idiotic move I have seen the O's make in a long time. And that's saying something because we are by far the dumbest team in baseball thanks to the clowns running this organization. They, along with the equally inept Peter Angelos, seemed to be feeble-minded and incapable of putting a quality ballclub together. Time and time again, Angelos approves every bad idea his GM's set forth. All three have ruined this organization over the past few years, Angelos even longer. But Flanagan and Duquette were in charge of improving the O's horrible bullpen. They shelled $42 million in contracts on relief pitchers and signed a few hitters in hopes of improving that area as well. What's the result? Our bullpen stinks even more, and we still can't! How the heck we are unable to score in Camden Yards (a known hitter-friendly ballpark) is unfathomable. They couldn't blame the players for their lack of production, because that goes right back to those that signed the players, Flanagan and Duquette. And they could not accept responsibility for their poor decisions. So someone else has to take the fall and that somebody was Perlozzo.

The Rest of the Players
Whether it's injuries, overrated players with limited talent, or star players that didn't want to play hard for Perlozzo, this team has been a disaster. Let's work our way around the diamond. Ramon Hernandez has been injured half the season and Paul Bako is showing why this his 10th team in his ten-year career. With the exception of a 10-game hitting streak (ironically ending after the Mother's Day Massacre), Aubrey Huff has been a bust for much of the season. He just started hitting two weeks ago. If backup Kevin Millar's talent at the plate was half as good as his mouth, he would be a decent backup. With an average of .243 he is over 40 points below his career average. Again, how can you not hit in Camden Yards? Brian Roberts has been great on the field, one of the very few. And he almost always does the right thing off the field. But it seems he too joined his fellow teammates by not supporting his manger at the end. Still, Roberts is one of our few bright spots. Miguel Tejada, probably the most underachieving of all. It seems his goal is to get singles. I'm sorry he's being paid to be a superstar, give me the doubles and homers your capable of. As late as May 23rd, he had a season total of 2HR's and 6 doubles. That is just ridiculous. Since then he has 6 doubles and 5 homers. Perhaps he finally accepted the criticism he was receiving. I used to appreciate Melvin Mora, now I am sick of him. The once highly productive hitter looks washed up, batting 35 points below his career average. Even worse, he has to be the dumbest baserunner I have ever seen. Coupled with the fact that he has seemingly become a 'crybaby' and grew less interested in playing for Perlozzo, I look forward to his departure.

Jay Payton has been decent with an average close to what was expected. We knew he wasn't a homerun hitter, but he's only on pace for 3 homeruns for the entire season! As long as he keeps his pace of 30 doubles, I will be satisfied. Centerfield has been ineffective, with Corey Patterson having an eerily similar season to his 2005 season that caused the Cubs to release him. Let's hope he finds the sparkle that he had last year. I give him credit in that he is one of the very few that has played hard day in and day out, even if he has struggled. In right field, phenom Nick Markakis has come around after a slow start. Since the Mother's Day Massacre he is batting .297 and seems to be one of the very few that cares to win and actually root for his teammates at the end of a dramatic game.

At DH, we have the pathetic Jay Gibbons. I get the impression he thinks the world of himself and his excessively long sideburns. He also seems quite content at times with his .210 batting average. A week or two ago when asked about Dave Trembly's thought of resuming infield practice before games to mix things up, here was Gibbons' response: "We haven't taken infield practice in 7 years, I don't see why we should now." HELLO!!! You and your team have been losers for 7 years! Maybe we should try something called fundamentals (which you sorely lack Jay) to improve the quality of this team. Oh by the way, although I didn't make it past Little League and am nowhere near your level of talent, just a word of wisdom for you. Take the outside pitch to the opposite field and stop trying to pull everything you see. You will be surprised to see your weak groundout to second turns into a line drive single to left. Or maybe you can just keep working on those sideburns. You can't hit worth a lick, but you can grow facial hair!

So for the position players, let's get rid of Gibbons, Bako, Millar, Mora, and unless he shows some more pop, Tejada as well. I remain hopeful for Patterson, Payton, and Huff, and I hope Hernandez can get healthy. Roberts and Markakis are our only players reaching expectations.

I can't complain too much about our starting pitching. In most cases, that has been our lone bright spot. Guthrie has turned into an ace for us, pitching another phenomenal game in San Diego last night to end our 9-game losing streak. He is now 4-1 with a 2.42 ERA! Our most consistent pitcher for much of the season has been Steve Trachsel. He has been better than his 5-5 record and 4.24 ERA. Erik Bedard has been solid and among the league leader in strikeouts, but he rarely gets past the 7th inning, a detriment to our bullpen. I am starting to question his endurance, but he does well even if he is a 6-7 inning pitcher. Brian Burres has filled in admirably with an ERA at 2.94 and a welcome addition to our staff. As for Daniel Cabrera, either his stubbornness restricts his talent, or he just isn't as talented as we thought. Unlike Bedard he has the endurance do go the distance, but he gets roughed up everytime. With a 5-8 record and 5.20 ERA he has actually regressed to point where he is worse now than ever before. If he doesn't improve by the All-Star Break, maybe it's finally time give up on Cabrera as a starter, and recall Hayden Penn. Or better off, go out and get someone better.

The last statement could be said for many of our players so let's see what happens from here on out. Andy MacPhail was hired as President of Baseball Operations and we are seeking Joe Girardi to manage the team. Things are looking up, but when you've reached the lowest point in the valley, all you can do is look up at the mountain in front of you.

Andy MacPhail & Future Manager
I like the way this is looking, but I will blog on this later on when we hire our new manager. Let's hope it's Girardi and acts as a drill sergeant to these players. That's enough for now. I will have more hopefully this weekend, provided we don't drag our feet in the managerial search.

Sad But True

Yes, Sammy P. did get fired this morning, but it wasn't exactly a big surprise to anyone. I have a lot of thoughts concerning this but it is late and will save them for Tuesday evening. Expect an essay...this is MY team and I am VERY passionate about the O's. For now, I leave you with this image, courtesy of Beltway Sports Beat.

Baseball Postseason Odds

Pretty cool website that takes the current standings, simulates the rest of the season a million times and projects each team's final record and odds of making the playoffs.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

As of Friday, June 8, the Orioles are projected to finish 83-79, with a 14.33% chance of making the playoffs. I say 80-82 is more likely with a 0% chance of making the playoffs.

AFC Breakdown

AFC EAST

I think most people are in agreement that its the Patriots and then a large gap between them and every one else. The rich got richer, bringing in Randy Moss, the beast Adalius Thomas, Donte' Stallworth, and Wes Welker. With their 14-2 record, I had them going undefeated in the division, but a strong Jets team with newly acquired Thomas Jones will play them tough both games and may beat them in New Jersey. Speaking of the Jets, I have them at 9-7, but they could easily win an extra game, maybe even two. Either way, they are a wildcard team. Buffalo had a great draft (one that I am jealous over as a Packer fan), but that won't help them on the field until the latter half of the season. I see Buffalo struggling early, but play strong during the final half of the season to finish 7-9. As for Miami, wretched. I think Trent Green wins two more games than my previous record for them, but that still only makes them a last place team with a 5-11 record. Too many problems in Miami at too many positions.

AFC CENTRAL

Interesting division and possibly the most competitive. I like Baltimore to win the division with a formula that is more of the same. Excellent defense, Matt Stover, safe passing on offense, and now an improved running game with Willis McGahee. Pittsburgh is tough to predict, but I like them to get a wildcard with a 9-7 record. Great move bringing in former Pitt Panther, Kevan Barlow. Him and Parker out of the backfield will be formidable for opposing teams. I find it interesting that Pittsburghers are more pessimistic than I am about the Steelers' upcoming season. Listening to them you would think the world is coming to an end and they will finish under .500. as great as that would be, the Steelers are too talented for that. As for Cincinnati, their season doesn't begin until after their bye in Week 5, because I have them losing their first four games of the season. Too much turmoil this offseason, but they get it going in the second half. Much like Buffalo, too little, too late. A lot of people see Cleveland improving after arguably the best draft in the league, but I don't think so. Their schedule gets real tough after their early bye and they're going to have to really improve to be a 6 win team or better.

AFC SOUTH

Definitely the Colts here, but with a very tough schedule for the defending champs, I lowered their record from 2006 down to 11-5. Still as strong of a team though. I forsee a bit of a sophomore slump for Vince Young and the Titans, so I keep them at 8-8 while others see them improving. I may even be generous because after this season LenDale White will show he is a bust, leaving Vince Young to do it all himself. Without any help it will be a tough season. Look for rookie Chris Henry to take over by the end of the season. Jacksonville at 6-10 could very well be my biggest bust. On paper, I look at this team and I see a lot of injury-prone players with mediocre talent. Yet they somehow get it done on the field, so their wins and losses could be flipped from my prediction. I like the Texans' move in trading for Matt Schaub, but they really blackballed David Carr. IT wasn't Carr's fault! HELLO!! Your o-line stinks! In fact, Carr was very efficient last year....when he was able to throw the ball. Schaub will not be able to do any better if he's getting sacked left and right.

AFC WEST

I like Denver here and I think they will be fairly dominating at 12-4. GREAT move bringing in Travis Henry, I see him being a 1500-yd back. San Diego struggles a bit with so many coaching changes, but with so much talent on the field, they should at least be a .500 team and I have them at 9-7. When will the Chargers ever turn the corner? Kansas City...what are you doing? Damon Huard overachieved last year and Brodie Croyle has a weak arm. Your o-line is depleted, forcing Tony Gonzalez to block more, your receivers have always stunk, and you have no QB, leaving LJ as your only offensive weapon. Good thing for you, your defense is improved, but if you have trouble scoring points, you will still lose a lot of games, hence the 5-11 record. As for Oakland, more of the same.

AFC Honors:

Best QB...Carson Palmer (CIN) [4225 Passing Yards, 34 TD's, 10 INT's, QB Rating: 107.8]
Best RB...LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) [1675 Rush. Yds., 23 Rushing TD's, 475 Rec. Yds., 2 Rec. TD's, 2150 Total Yds., 25 Total TD's]
Best WR...Chad Johnson (CIN) [90 Receptions, 1339 Receiving Yards, 10 TD's]
Best Defensive Player...Adalius Thomas (NE) [13 Sacks, 82 Tackles]
Comeback Player of the Year...Randy Moss (NE) [63 Receptions, 982 Rec. Yds., 10 TD's]
Breakout Players of the Year...Jay Cutler (DEN) [2600 Pass. Yds., 13 TD's] & Laurence Maroney (NE) [1300 Rush. Yds. , 8 TD's]
Best Rookie...Marshawn Lynch (BUF) [800 Rushing Yds., 6 TD's]
Best Coach...Bill Belichick (NE)

Next week, I will breakdown the highly debated NFC.

2007 NBA Mock Draft

Just for fun...

2007 ESPN NBA Draft Machine

...I know nothing about the NBA, so take it with a grain of salt.

2007 NFL Predictions, Part 1

	AFC East							NFC East
	Team	W	L	PCT				Team	W	L	PCT
*yz	New England	14	2	0.875			yz	Dallas	11	5	0.688
x	N.Y. Jets	9	7	0.563			x	Philadelphia	11	5	0.688
	Buffalo	7	9	0.438				N.Y. Giants	7	9	0.438
	Miami	3	13	0.188				Washington	5	11	0.313
	AFC North							NFC North
	Team	W	L	PCT				Team	W	L	PCT
y	Baltimore	12	4	0.750			y	Green Bay	9	7	0.563
x	Pittsburgh	9	7	0.563				Chicago	9	7	0.563
	Cincinnati	7	9	0.438				Minnesota	5	11	0.313
	Cleveland	4	12	0.250				Detroit	5	11	0.313
	AFC South							NFC South
	Team	W	L	PCT				Team	W	L	PCT
y	Indianapolis	11	5	0.688			*yz	New Orleans	13	3	0.813
	Tennessee	8	8	0.500			x	Carolina	10	6	0.625
	Jacksonville	6	10	0.375				Atlanta	5	11	0.313
	Houston	6	10	0.375				Tampa Bay	5	11	0.313
	AFC West							NFC West
	Team	W	L	PCT				Team	W	L	PCT
yz	Denver	12	4	0.750			y	St. Louis	10	6	0.625
	San Diego	9	7	0.563				San Francisco	9	7	0.563
	Kansas City	5	11	0.313				Seattle	8	8	0.500
	Oakland	3	13	0.188				Arizona	8	8	0.500
	AFC Wild Card							NFC Wild Card
6-	Pittsburgh Steelers						6-	Carolina Panthers
3-	Baltimore Ravens						3-	St. Louis Rams
5-	New York Jets						5-	Philadelphia Eagles
4-	Indianapolis Colts						4-	Green Bay Packers
	AFC Divisional Round							NFC Divisional Round
4-	Indianapolis Colts						4-	Green Bay Packers
1-	New England Patriots						1-	New Orleans Saints
3-	Baltimore Ravens						3-	St. Louis Rams
2-	Denver Broncos						2-	Dallas Cowboys
	AFC Conference Championship							NFC Conference Championship
2-	Denver Broncos						2-	Dallas Cowboys
1-	New England Patriots						1-	New Orleans Saints
	SUPER BOWL XLII
	New England Patriots over New Orleans Saints