Halloween Rankings

Well I finally have indulged the J-Factor by bumping Michigan up to #2 this week for the first time. Overall the standings have shaken up a bit as we head into the heart of the college football season. Past Michigan's climb to #2, the next thing to stand out is the rankings of the teams playing in the game of the week. West Virginia is now #3 and Louisville is #4. This will go down as the game of the year...that is until #1 Ohio State and #2 Michigan face each other for the "national championship" later in November.

Here are the updated rankings, with further analysis below:

Teams on the rise: #24 Oregon State (+11), #33 Maryland (+6), #34 Washington State (+6), #35 TCU (+6), #41 Arizona State (+5), #42 Oklahoma State (+9)

Teams on the slide: #10 USC (-6), #23 Clemson (-15), #31 Nebraska (-10), #32 Miami (-6), #36 South Carolina (-6), #39 Georgia (-6), #43 Florida State (-7), #44 Wyoming (-10), #49 Washington (-5)

Game of the Week: #3 West Virginia @ #4 Louisville (set you VCR SpeedyDave!)

Other Games to Watch: #33 Maryland @ #23 Clemson, #27 Penn State @ #15 Wisconsin, #28 Missouri @ #31 Nebraska, #49 Washington @ #26 Oregon, #22 Tulsa @ #50 Houston, #14 LSU @ #8 Tennessee, #41 Arizona State @ #24 Oregon State, #42 Oklahoma State @ #5 Texas, #18 Oklahoma @ #21 Texas A&M

Upset Alert: #17 Boston College @ #29 Wake Forest, #9 Arkansas @ #36 South Carolina, #20 Virginia Tech @ #32 Miami (FL)

Pick Evaluation

Overall I had a great week which was, of course, highlighted by the awesome Oregon State upset pick. Here's the breakdown:

Record this week: 7-2

Wins: Iowa over N. Illinois, Oklahoma over Missouri, Penn State over Purdue, Florida over Georgia, Oregon State over USC, Georgia Tech over Miami, Tennessee over South Carolina
Losses: Maryland over Florida State, TCU over Wyoming

Best Predictions: USC-26 @ Oregon State-28.....Actual Result: Oregon State won 33-31; Tennessee-31 @ South Carolina-24.....EXACT Result AND Score!!
Worst Prediction: Wyoming-26 @ TCU-10....Actual Result: TCU won easily, 26-3

The Oregon State Beavers!!!

Upset Alert: NR Northern Illinois @ #38 Iowa, #10 Tennessee @ #30 South Carolina, #4 USC @ #35 Oregon State (call it a gut feeling) - Monday, October 23

#4 USC - 26 @ #35 Oregon State - 28
As some of you already know, I have been honking on the Beavers upsetting the Trojans for a few days now and I still feel that way. Again, my only reasoning is that it is just a gut feeling so I guess we'll find out tomorrow whether I was right or if it was just gas. - Friday, October 27

FINAL SCORE
Oregon State - 33
USC - 31

Isn't life crazy, when a "gut feeling" can cause you to predict one of the biggest upsets of the year in college football? I really do not have any statistical explanation for my prediction. Sure, I had Oregon State ranked in the top 35, but we are talking about the mighty USC Trojans! I suppose this is proof that there is validity toward one's intuition.

That being said, I do not have any gut feelings this week. I wonder if I will ever have such a strong feeling on a team, as I did with the Beavers, for the remainder of the college football season. If I do, I wil be sure to let you know.

So how much of an "off the wall" prediction was this? Here's the goods:

• USC's loss snapped their 27-game Pac-10 winning streak (L 34-31 @ Cal, 27 Sept. 2003).
  
• The loss also ended the Trojans' 18-game regular season road winning streak (see above).
• In the last 45 years, this was just the third Beaver victory over the Trojans (all at home, 31-21 in 2000, and a 3-0 upset over #1 USC led by O.J. Simpson in 1967).

Big pat on the back for this one!

Friday Picks

I'm feeling extra bold and saucy today, so I'm picking 10 college football games this week! I have them listed in the order in which the games begin. By the way, I am glad I didn't pick the Clemson/VT game!

NR Northern Illinois - 21 @ #38 Iowa - 27
Iowa gets a scare at home from RB Garrett Wolfe and the Huskies, but they should survive to go to 6-3.

#20 Oklahoma - 25 @ #25 Missouri - 23
Well this may go down as the game of the week since Clemson laid an egg at Blacksburg. Missouri finally gets to prove to the country how good they are, but can they come through with a big win at home? I say: "not quite."

#29 Penn State - 31 @ #48 Purdue - 20
This is a game in which Penn State needs a breakthrough on offense. I think (hope) they can take advantage of Purdue's far less superior defense. I am expecting a big game out of QB Anthony Morelli.

#33 Georgia - 6 @ #13 Florida - 30
Georgia sucks, they lost to Vanderbilt two weeks ago and nearly lost to Mississippi State last week. Both of those games were at Georgia too. This one is at The Swamp and the talent level is drastically different. Expect a blowout win by the Gators.

#4 USC - 26 @ #35 Oregon State - 28
As some of you already know, I have been honking on the Beavers upsetting the Trojans for a few days now and I still feel that way. Again, my only reasoning is that it is just a gut feeling so I guess we'll find out tomorrow whether I was right or if it was just gas.

#26 Miami (FL) - 10 @ #19 Georgia Tech - 13
Should be a game led by defense and I think Georgia Tech's is a little better. In addition, after Miami's "thug fest" two weeks ago against Florida International and their near-loss last week at Duke, I have no respect for the Hurricanes.

#36 Florida State - 28 @ #39 Maryland - 20
This is an odd game between the underachieving Seminoles (4-3, 2-3) and the overachieving Terrapins (5-2, 2-1). So I really have no clue what's going to happen here, but history shows that Florida State almost always beats Maryland.

#34 Wyoming - 26 @ #41 TCU - 10
Remember when TCU began the season #15 in the country. Oh yeah, it's true. What the heck happened to the Horned Frogs? Meanwhile over the past three weeks, Wyoming has quietly become one of the most dominant teams west of the Mississippi River. During this time they have a record of 3-0, outscoring their opponents 69-25, good enough to become #2 in the Mountain West Conference.

#10 Tennessee - 31 @ #30 South Carolina - 24
This is a tough game for me to pick. I have a lot of respect for the Vols, but a part of me wants to go with the upset. If you asked me earlier in the week I would have gone with South Carolina, but I am convincing myself that Tennessee has far too much talent to lose to the Gamecocks. Perhaps "closer than the experts think" but I like the Vols.

A gift from me to you

By request, I will post my preseason NCAA Men's Basketball rankings this weekend. There are a couple of other matters I need to tend too first so don't expect any basketball news until Sunday evening. Plus, I have a lot of research to do on the top teams in the land so that too will take some time as well.

In addition, I will begin posting the schedules of certain teams and evaluating their season ahead. Of course, Gonzaga and Maryland will top the list! I will also breakdown Syracuse's schedule by request. If you would like me to evaluate any other team's feel free to let me know by posting a comment!

Some Thoughts on my Rankings

There are a few debates I need to address, so I will save those for last. First I will take a look at the movers and shakers following this past weekend's games. So here we go:

Teams on the rise: #18 Boston College (+5), #30 South Carolina (+6), #34 Wyoming (+8), #35 Oregon State, (+6), #39 Maryland (+13), #40 Washington State (+13)

Teams on the slide: #19 Georgia Tech (-5), #27 Oregon (-10), #36 Florida State (-5), #37 Pittsburgh (-5), #45 NC State (-8), #48 Purdue (-10)

Game of the Week: #8 Clemson @ #24 Virginia Tech

Other Games to Watch: #29 Penn State @ #48 Purdue, #9 Notre Dame @ NR Navy, #20 Oklahoma @ #25 Missouri, #33 Georgia @ #13 Florida, #26 Miami (FL) @ #19 Georgia Tech, #46 Arizona State @ #44 Washington, #6 Texas @ #43 Texas Tech, #40 Washington State @ #47 UCLA, #36 Florida State @ #39 Maryland, #34 Wyoming @ #41 TCU

Upset Alert: NR Northern Illinois @ #38 Iowa, #10 Tennessee @ #30 South Carolina, #4 USC @ #35 Oregon State (call it a gut feeling)
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Now, to address the great debate that is my Top 5...in particular, West Virginia and Michigan. I have no objection to those who argue Michigan should be #2. Just keep in mind where those teams started the season at in my rankings. If you recall, my original rankings had West Virginia at #7 and Michigan at #19. To round out the Top 5, Ohio State has been #1 all along, USC was, and is once again, #4 in the rankings, while Louisville began the season at #12. So for all of you Wolverine fans (ehem, J Factor), you can make the argument that Michigan has been arguably the most impressive team in college football. With Ohio State being as dominant as everyone expected them to be, I do believe that when Ohio State plays at Michigan on November 18th, it will go down as 'Game of the Decade'. Yes you read that correctly! That will no doubt be either a #1/#2 or #1/#3 matchup, depending on the outcome of the West Virginia/Louisville game on Nov. 2nd.

Rutgers- Well it seems one of my loyal readers is a diehard fan of SUNJ, so I'll throw them a bone. Let's take a look at 7-0 Scarlet Knights' resume: a victory at UNC (21-16); 3 straight home wins vs. Illinois (33-0), Ohio (24-7), and Howard (56-7); a close victory at S. Florida (22-20); then two key wins at Navy (34-0) and Pitt (20-10). As far as I'm concerned, Rutgers' first four opponents were cupcakes. I was not impressed with their "near loss" at South Florida by any means. However, my opinion on Rutgers has changed drastically over the last two weeks. I actually expected Navy and Pitt to put up a fight and actually beat Rutgers. That wasn't the case by any means, as Navy got blown out by Rutgers, and Pitt looked like they were manhandled by a superior team. So I feel I am giving Rutgers the credit they deserve by moving them up the rankings four more spots, for the second week in a row, to #15. Right now, I can not forsee Rutgers being able to beat any of the 14 teams ahead of them, so they may have reached their ceiling, unless of course they are the benefactors of a major loss by one of the teams ahead of them.

The rest of the Undefeated Teams- Rather than going into detail about each team, I wil give a brief synopsis and forecast for each.

#1 Ohio State (8-0, 4-0)...biggest game(s) left: Nov. 18 vs. Michigan...As advertised, the Buckeyes are the best in the land, and they will show it by finishing the regular season undefeated after a close win vs. the Wolverines.

#2 West Virginia (7-0, 4-0)...biggest game(s) left: Nov. 2 @ Louisville, Nov. 16 @ Pitt, Dec. 2 vs. Rutgers...My biggest knock on this team is that they don't play all four quarters with the same intensity. They are either dominant during the first half and sluggish to finish, or vice versa. It is my belief that this team may be overrated at #2 and will soon falter when they face better teams. That being said, I expect them to lose at Louisville and possibly the home finale against Rutgers too (but I doubt it).

#3 Michigan (7-0, 4-0)...biggest game(s) left: Nov. 18 @ Ohio State...This will be a #1 vs. #2 matchup for the reasons listed above. I'm calling it now...'GAME OF THE DECADE'-->Saturday, 18 November 2006, #2-Michigan @ #1-Ohio State!!!

#4 USC (6-0, 4-0)...biggest game(s) left: Nov. 11 vs. Oregon, Nov. 18 vs. Cal, Nov. 25 @ Notre Dame, Dec. 2 @ UCLA...Provided they avoid the upset this week against SpeedyDave's Beavers, the Trojans should be 8-0 heading into the murderous 4-game stretch (listed above) to close the season. I say they lose 2 of the 4 (Cal and Notre Dame), finishing 10-2.

#5 Louisville (7-0, 2-0)...biggest game(s) left: Nov. 2 vs. WVU, Nov. 9 @ Rutgers, Nov. 25 @ Pitt...I have a lot of respect for this team considering they have fought through injuries to Brian Brohm (now back playing) and Michael Bush (will not return). If they beat WVU, which I think they will, they could go undefeated. But something in my gut tells me theymay play better against WVU than the following week at Rutgers. I can envision Rutgers playing spoilers against the Cardinals. So, I will call a 1-loss season for Louisville.

#15 Rutgers (7-0, 2-0)...biggest game(s) left: Nov. 9 vs. Louisville, Nov. 25 vs. Syracuse, Dec. 2 @ West Virginia...As hard as it is for me believe this, I think Rutgers will go 10-0 before losing. Then, they realize they are from New Jersey and get upset by Syracuse and possibly lose at West Virginia.


#16 Boise State (8-0, 4-0)...biggest game(s) left: none...There is no reason why the team with the blue turf should not go undefeated. Their key wins this year are against Oregon State, Wyoming, and Utah. Not bad, but certainly nothing to write to Grandma about. With a weak schedule, I can't imagine the Broncos finishing any higher than #10 even with an undefeated season.
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Thanks for reading my babbling. That will be all for now, I will try to post more frequently on specific teams (similar to above) if time allows. Otherwise, my next college football post will be in a week with the updated rankings. So long for now.

Week 8 Rankings

Unlike last time when I missed a week of rankings, I did update rankings for Week 7, I just didn't have time to post them. Much of my available time was occupied at the NWA Conference in Cleveland last week. More on that to come...and that will be a "no holds barred" blog too! Anyway, here are the updated rankings as of 10/23/06:

Week 5 Make that Week 6 Rankings

Folks, it has been a very busy couple of weeks. I did find the time to update my rankings last week, but did not get around to post and comment. Things are looking better now, so here are my latest rankings through Week 6:

As you can see there are some major changes! Let's take a look at the movers and shakers:

Teams on the rise: #9 Tennessee (+5), #11 California (+5), #13 Arkansas (+14), #22 Missouri, (+6), #24 Wisconsin (+10), #33 NC State (+17), #39 Utah (+6)

Teams on the slide: #14 Auburn (-12), #15 LSU (-10), #18 Oregon (-6), #19 Georgia (-8), #32 Texas Tech (-9), #34 Florida State (-16), #43 TCU (-17), #47 Purdue (-10)

Game of the Week: #3 Florida @ #14 Auburn

Other Games to Watch: #42 Wake Forest @ #33 NC State, #23 Rutgers @ #41 Navy, #22 Missouri @ #30 Texas A&M, #40 UCLA @ #18 Oregon, #44 Arizona State @ #4 USC

Upset Alert: #17 Virginia Tech @ #38 Boston College, #7 Michigan @ #25 Penn State