Week 4 Rankings

I am not going to fool with the formatting anymore. Screenshots work just the same. As for the the rankings, neither of the top 18 teams lost today, so I saw no need to change the rankings of those teams. I did mix it up from ranking #19 on. Penn State, Arizona State, and Boston College fall out of the top 25 this week. They are replaced by Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, and "welcome back to the top 25", California. Interestingly, both of my upset alerts came to fruition this week!

Teams on the rise: #19 California (+9 gain in ranks), #27 Arkansas (+15 gain in ranks), #31 Purdue (+6 in ranks), #38 Washington (+15 in ranks), #45 Houston (+6 in ranks), #47 Wake Forest (+5 in ranks)

Teams on the slide: #25 Alabama (-6 loss in ranks), #34 Arizona State (-14 in ranks), #39 Minnesota (-5 in ranks), #40 Boston College (-15 in ranks), #43 UCLA (-14 in ranks)
Game of the Week: #1-Ohio State @ #14-Iowa

Other Games to Watch: #2-Auburn @ #32-South Carolina; #25-Alabama @ #6-Florida; #31-Purdue @ #10-Notre Dame; #24-Texas Tech @ #28-Texas A&M; #13-Oregon @ #34-Arizona State; #45-Houston @ #30-Miami (FL)

Upset Alert: #22-Boise State @ #35-Utah; #23-Georgia Tech @ #11-Virginia Tech;

Week 4 College FB Picks

Since there are not too many big games this week, I am only predicting the following six games:

#23 Penn State-13 @ #1 Ohio State-17
I am not totally convinced that this game will be as close as I am prediciting. Perhaps my faith in Penn State is skewing my thoughts some. Offensively I just can not see Penn State matching up against Ohio State. Expect a big game out of my leading Heisman trophy candidate, Troy Smith.

#10 Notre Dame-48 @ #38 Michigan State-41
Both teams have great offenses (although Notre Dame did look bad last week) and I expect this one to be a barnburner. Michigan State will flirt with the upset, but Notre Dame prevails here.

#20 Arizona State-20 @ #28 California-48
In my opinion, both of these teams started the season overrated. That is no longer the case for Cal, after being humbled at Tennessee. I like what I am starting to see out of Cal lately and I expect them to begin playing up to expectations. I predict a big win for Cal which will move them back into my Top 25.

#33 Wisconsin-6 @ #9 Michigan-38
Both teams are 3-0, but Wisconsin has played some cupcakes. Let's see here, Michigan returns home after stomping Notre Dame on the road, 47-21; meanwhile Wisconsin travels to the big house after an unimpressive home win against San Diego State, 14-0. Hmm...will this game be close? I doubt it, Michigan rolls to 4-0.

#19 Alabama-18 @ #42 Arkansas-17
This strikes me as an odd game because I think I have Alabama rated too high and Arkansas too low. I admit, Alabama still has a great defense, but what about their offense. As for Arkansas, they are looking better since getting throttled by USC. Interestingly, both teams struggled to beat Vanderbilt this season. I wonder if either team will score 20 points here.

#29 UCLA-34 @ NR Washington-35
Call it a gut feeling, but I like Washington to pull off the biggest upset of the week. Looking back at the history book, the Huskies have not beat the Bruins since 2000, and the Bruins have won 8 of their last 9 games against the Huskies. So history is against me, but I like Washington after pulling off a big win last week against Fresno State. If they do win, they will have to score a lot of points to do so.

Verification of Last Week's Picks

I went 6-4 overall, so I could have done better. Here are the 6 good picks:

Prediction: Auburn over LSU, 13-10
Actual: Auburn over LSU, 7-3
Summary: As expected, this game was a defensive struggle with Auburn prevailing.

Prediction: Oregon over Oklahoma, 31-24
Actual: Oregon over Oklahoma, 34-33
Summary: An unbelievable finish and a royal screwjob for the Sooners. If the refs did their job correctly, Oklahoma should have won 33-20. Nevertheless, it ended up becoming a good call on my part.

Prediction: Louisville over Miami, 31-30
Actual: Louisville over, 31-7
Summary: Well I nailed half of this score! Did Miami even show up? Absolute domination by the Cardinals.

Prediction: Virginia Tech over Duke, 52-3
Actual: Virginia Tech over Duke, 36-0
Summary: Surprise, surprise, the Hokies blew out Duke. I am surprised the score wasn't worse than what it was though.

Prediction: USC over Nebraska, 49-24
Actual: USC over Nebraska, 28-10
Summary: Nebraska played fairly respectable, they did not get dominatd like everyone thought. Still a somewhat convincing victory for USC.

Prediction: Michigan State over Pitt, 30-27
Actual: Michigan State over Pitt, 38-23
Summary: Technically an upset, but I was not surprised by the result as I thought the Spartans were better.

As for the 4 bad picks:
Prediction: Notre Dame over Michigan, 34-20
Actual: Michigan over Notre Dame, 47-21
Summary: By far, my worst prediction of the week. Notre Dame looked abysmal. Kudos to SpeedyDave24 for his call on this game.

Prediction: Iowa State over Iowa, 20-14
Actual: Iowa over Iowa State, 27-17
Summary: Clearly Iowa is a much more dominant team with Drew Tate at QB.

Prediction: Florida State over Clemson, 22-16
Actual: Clemson over Florida State, 27-20
Summary: Florida State managed to win their first 2 games ugly. This time they got what they deserved. Can the Seminoles running game look any more anemic? Very underachieving.

Prediction: Tennessee over Florida, 26-23
Actual: Florida over Tennessee, 21-20
Summary: A very tight game as expected, however the Gators got the go-ahead score late.

Week 3 Rankings

I have no idea why there is such a huge gap below. Whatever, just scroll down for my rankings.

As of Sunday, September 17, 2006

Rank	Prev.	Team	Record	Result
1	1	Ohio State	(3-0, 0-0)	Won vs. Cincinnati, 37-7
2	2	Auburn	(3-0, 2-0)	Won vs. LSU, 7-3
3	5	USC	(2-0, 0-0)	Won vs. Nebraska, 28-10
4	6	West Virginia	(3-0, 0-0)	Won vs. Maryland, 45-24
5	4	LSU	(2-1, 0-1)	Lost @ Auburn, 7-3
6	7	Florida	(3-0, 1-0)	Won @ Tennessee, 21-20
7	8	Texas	(2-1, 0-0)	Won @ Rice, 52-7
8	12	Louisville	(3-0, 0-0)	Won vs. Miami, 31-7
9	17	Michigan	(3-0, 0-0)	Won @ Notre Dame, 47-21
10	3	Notre Dame	(2-1, 0-0)	Lost vs. Michigan, 47-21
11	11	Virginia Tech	(3-0, 2-0)	Won vs. Duke, 36-0
12	13	Georgia	(3-0, 1-0)	Won vs. UAB, 34-0
13	14	Oregon	(3-0, 1-0)	Won vs. Oklahoma, 34-33
14	16	Iowa	(3-0, 0-0)	Won vs. Iowa State, 27-17
15	19	TCU	(3-0, 0-0)	Won vs. Texas Tech, 12-3
16	29	Clemson	(2-1, 1-1)	Won @ Florida State, 27-21
17	18	Tennessee	(2-1, 0-1)	Lost vs. Florida, 21-20
18	9	Florida State	(2-1, 1-1)	Lost vs. Clemson, 27-17
19	21	Alabama	(3-0, 1-0)	Won @ Vanderbilt, 21-19
20	22	Arizona State	(3-0, 0-0)	Won @ Colorado, 21-3
21	15	Nebraska	(2-1, 0-0)	Lost @ USC, 28-10
22	23	Oklahoma	(2-1, 0-0)	Lost @ Oregon, 34-33
23	24	Penn State	(2-1, 0-0)	Won vs. Youngstown State, 37-3
24	25	Boise State	(3-0, 0-0)	Won @ Wyoming, 17-10
25	27	Boston College	(3-0, 1-0)	Won vs. BYU, 30-23 (2OT)

Rankings 26-50:


Game of the Week: #23-Penn State @ #1-Ohio State

Other Games to Watch: #33-Wisconsin @ #9-Michigan; #36-Tulsa @ #49-Navy; #20-Arizona State @ #28-California; #10-Notre Dame @ #38-Michigan State

Upset Alert: #29-UCLA @ NR-Washington; #19-Alabama @ #42-Arkansas

Nick Markakis is my Hero

What a talented player on an otherwise awful team! The O's certainly have a talented, young player in Markakis. In fact, he would be a serious contender for Rookie of the Year if the O's were a better team. Even if they were better, I admit he would probably lose out to pitching phenom Francisco Liriano of the Minnesota Twins. With Liriano out for the remainder of the season though, Markakis may gain some swing votes during the last few weeks of the season. This reminds me, I predicted Markakis to win AL ROY when I made my 2006 MLB predictions back in April. That may be the only good prediction I made though, haha!

Markakis, the AL Rookie of the Month for August, is currently batting .306, with 15 HR's, and 58 RBI. During the month of August, he went on a tear, batting .354, with 10 HR, and 26 RBI. August featured the best game of his young career with a 3 HR game on Aug. 22 against the Twins. With a month as good as this, it is easy for people to forget that he batted .403 for the month of July!!

I just can not say enough good things about this kid. He is a promising lefty with a sweet swing on my favorite team. He is one of the few reasons I can cheer for the O's. I am glad the Orioles were patient during the course of the season while Markakis experienced his growing pains. Allowing Markakis to mature as a big-league hitter, rather than sending him to AAA when his average was .221 through June 13 was an excellent move on Baltimore's part. In fact, it is one of the very few good things I can say about the O's front office. Hopefully they will be smart for a change, lock Markakis up, and build around him, Tejada, and Roberts. Well I had better stop now before I get onto that subject again.

I am looking forward to watching Markakis during the last couple of weeks of the season. From what I have seen so far, I think he will finish first or second in the ROY voting and has the potential to be a perennial All-Star in the future. It will be a long time before I have high hopes about the Orioles again, but I do have high hopes for Nick Markakis. Its good to see a young, talented player in an Oriole uniform again. This is probably the best season for an Oriole rookie since Cal Ripken in 1982. Now that is an enjoyable comparison to think about, so I will end on that note.

Friday Night Picks

Just for fun, I will select 10 college football games and predict the score for each. I got the idea after checking out SpeedyDave24's blog. I highly recommend you check out his blog at http://www.xanga.com/speedydave24. Here are my picks:

#4 LSU-10 @ #2 Auburn-13
Again, this will obviously be the game of the week. Since 2002, the home team has been the winner of this game each year. I expect Auburn to continue that tradition in a battle of defense and field position.

#17 Michigan-20 @ #3 Notre Dame-34
Michigan, for some reason or another, seems to have trouble against Notre Dame under head coach Lloyd Carr. Notre Dame is a better team anyway; Irish improve to 3-0.

#10 Miami-30 @ #12 Louisville-31
This is a rematch of the 2004 thriller at Miami. In that game, Louisville went up 24-7 at halftime, only to lose 41-38. This time around the game will be played in Louisville and the Cardinals will be seeking redemption. I like Louisville, barely, in another thriller.

#23 Oklahoma-24 @ #14 Oregon-31
This will be the third year in a row they have faced each other, first time at Oregon. The Sooners won both of the previous two matchups but I don't see that happening again. Quite frankly I can not fathom why the major polls have Oklahoma ranked so much higher than Oregon when I have it the other way around. The Ducks are a solid team and tough to beat at home. In the end, Oregon overcomes Heisman hopeful Adrian Peterson to show they are a BCS contender.

#29 Clemson-16 @ #9 Florida State-22
Yet another Bowden Bowl...will the home team win again? That has been the trend since 2002. Interestingly, the teams have split the past four games, with neither game being all that close. That being said, Clemson has outscored Florida State 114-113 since '02. This year, both teams look unimpressive and underachieving. I expect Florida State to win ugly...once again.

#15 Nebraska-24 @ #5 USC-49
The running joke is whether or not USC will run up 50 points on the Cornhuskers. I say close, but no cigar. I find it hard to believe that this game will be anywhere close to what the rankings suggest. Nebraska is not ready for the national spotlight again. USC wins big at home.

#7 Florida-23 @ #18 Tennessee-26
I told an old college buddy of mine from Salisbury U., who is now seeking his Masters at Tennessee, that I would root for his Vols this year. Besides, I really don't care for any other team in the SEC, especially Florida for whom I hate. So I am going with the mild upset in this game. Most of the experts seem to think that Tennessee is not ready for type of game, but I heard that before the Cal game. Next thing I know, Tennessee is up 35-0 in a hurry. Look for Tennessee's defense to outshine Florida's for the win.

NR Michigan State-30 @ #37 Pitt-27
I suppose this will constitute as an upset since Michigan State is not ranked. Both teams have been impressive through two weeks, but I think the Spartans have more talent than the Panthers. Besides, Michigan State is always impressive during their first five games of a season before their yearly collapse.

#41 Iowa State-20 @ #16 Iowa-14
Year after year, Iowa is the favorite in this bitter rivalry. However the Cyclones have won 6 of the last 8 meetings against the Iowa Hawkeyes. I like the upset special once again, as my "favorite college football team named for a weather term" pulls off another stunner.

#11 Virginia Tech-52 @ NR Duke-3
Just for fun I decided to pick the score for what I believe will be the blowout of the week. I also take comfort in thinking about Duke, a team I loathe, getting crushed. If the Hokies score early and often before the starters come out, they may put up 60.

Week 2 College FB Rankings

Game of the Week: #4-LSU @ #2-Auburn

Other Games to Watch: #17-Michigan @ #3-Notre Dame; #10-Miami (FL) @ #12-Louisville; #23-Oklahoma @ #14-Oregon; #20-Texas Tech @ #19-TCU; #29-Clemson @ #9-Florida State; #15-Nebraska @ #5-USC; #7-Florida @ #18-Tennessee

Upset Alert: NR-Michigan State @ #37-Pitt; #41-Iowa State @ #16-Iowa; #49-UAB @ #13-Georgia; NR-Troy @ #26-Georgia Tech

A quick thought on the Packers

I was just thinking that after watching Penn State's disgusting performance today, I would have a tough time dealing with a similar result from Green Bay on Sunday. Of course Chicago is the favorite to win even though the game is at Lambeau. Surprisingly though, the latest line has the Bears as only a 3.5 pt. favorite over the Packers. I will keep the faith that the Packers will pull out a big win in the season opener though. Perhaps its blind faith, but I know what the Packers are capable of. They have the talent to make a run for the division, they just can't seem to get all the key parts in sync with one another. Unfortuantely I will not be able to watch the game as KDKA will air the Cowboys/Jaguars at 4PM instead...BOO! I guess I will have to follow the game over the internet with my cheesehead on!

Embarrassing Game

Penn State was absolutely dominated by Notre Dame today. What a shame too. This was the first matchup in 14 years between the two powerhouse college football programs and Penn State forgot to show up for it. Coming into the game I really felt like Penn State could compete with Notre Dame and possibly even leave South Bend with a victory. Boy was I wrong, and thankfully I did pick Notre Dame in my College Pick'Em league. Let's break it down...

First and foremost, Notre Dame did an excellent job at tiring out Penn State's best player on defense, Paul Posluszny. With the endless amount of dumpoffs to the TE's, as well as a few more to WR's and RB's, it seemed like Posluszny was running all over the place trying to make tackles. By attacking Penn State's defense at the heart with a strong passing game, Penn State could never put pressure on Brady Quinn. When a prolific passer has all the time in the world...game over.

A corollary to Notre Dame's strong passing game was the incredibly weak secondary of Penn State. I have never seen so many wide open receivers in my life. Seriously, what were the DB's on Penn State doing out there? Penn State's pass coverage was wretched today, enough said.

As for Penn State's offense, there were two glaring problems. QB Anthony Morelli, albeit talent, looked very inexperienced and can not be counted on in a big game. Secondly, the Penn State offensive line was manhandled at times today. On several occasions, Notre Dame's defensive line was able to blow past the Penn State O-line to get to the quarterback. With Notre Dame's offense firing on all cylinders, Notre Dame's defense could focus solely on the Penn State passing game as it quickly became too far out-of-hand to run the ball often.

So what was good about Penn State today? Tony Hunt looked great again...until the Nittany Lions had to focus exclusively on passing. Also, Penn St. really did move the ball well throughout much of the first half, they just made too many mistakes (missed field goal attempts, turnovers, etc.). Giving a top-5 team extra opportunities is a huge mistake. Had they gone into the half trailing 13-6 rather than 20-0, perhaps things would have been different, one can only speculate though.

Clearly Notre Dame is a legitimate contender for the national championship, provided this is the true Fighting Irish, and not the team that played Georgia Tech last week. As for Penn State, I thought they were a top-15 team before this game. Now I would have to rank them near the bottom of the top-25. They play Youngstown St. next week so they have a golden opportunity to bounce back and show what they are truly capable of doing. They had better do so too, as they play at #1 Ohio State in two weeks. Hopefully the Nittany Lions can turn it around in a hurry.

A Week Later...

Ok, it took a lot longer for me to post than I expected. Needless to say my schedule remains just as busy as it was before. I suppose that is life though. From now on I will not make any promises on posting, I will just do the best I can, when I can. A lot has happened lately so I am not really sure where to begin. In time I will backtrack and comment on various things that happened over the past month or so, but not now. For now I will briefly comment on how life is treating me lately.

Like every one else there have been ups and downs, probably more ups though. I really like my schedule of classes this semester, primarily because 4/5 are weather related. Finally!!! The other class is a basic computer science class which seems pretty simple so far. In addition to college classes, I am still working at the bookstore and at HSTV for my internship, albeit lesser work hours for both. I am fortunate to have two bosses that are willing to work around my schedule to allow me to focus as much time on my education as needed. Everything is still going well at the bookstore. As for the internship, I have learned a lot over the last few weeks. I can not put a price on the experience I have gained at the station. It has been wonderful to get my feet wet in broadcast meteorology. Hopefully my time there will give me the extra edge I need when the time comes to send out resume tapes. Another thing I have learned is that the television industry can be brutal. I was told this before, but I truly understand now that I have experienced a taste of it. This is a field where you have to be a jerk and selfish at times. I hate that but that is just the way it is. I suppose if you are not a jerk you will eventually get screwed, and probably often too. So I guess I will pretend I am Alice Cooper at work ("No More Mr. Nice Guy") and revert back to my normal self away from work. Hmm, I don't know what else to say now.

I am happy that when I leave Cal U. I will specialize in both broadcast meteorology and operational meteorology. If there comes a point in time where I just can not stand being a tailhole and want to grab meteorology by the balls, I can always re-direct my interests towards the operational aspect of things. Either way I will still be a meteorologist; that remains unchanged. I feel this is what I was born to do and no matter what I will stick with it.

That's all for now, I won't bore you as much next time. I plan on talking more about sports over the next few days as it is arguably the best time of year to be a sports fan.

My 2006 College Football Rankings

For those of you who are unfamiliar with my rankings, I began doing this a few years ago for both college football and college basketball after being disappointed with the "more popular" rankings. I found that the bigger polls are slow to respond to drastic changes in a team's performance and are hellbent to stick with their original preseason rankings as much as possible. Also, especially with the coaches poll, it is obvious to see that the coaches who vote obviously do not have the time to carefully evaluate all teams worthy of being ranked. Well, I guess I don't either, but I have had a favorable response to my rankings in the past, so I guess I know what I am doing! Here are my inaugural 2006 rankings:

Rank...Team.............Record..........Last Week's Result.....Prev. Rank

1. Ohio State.....(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. N. Illinois, 35-12...---
2. Texas.............(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. N. Texas, 56-7......---
3. Auburn..........(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Wash. St., 40-14...---
4. USC................(1-0, 0-0)...Won @ Arkansas, 50-14....---
5. Notre Dame...(1-0, 0-0)...Won @ GA Tech, 14-10.....---
6. LSU.................(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. LA-Laf., 45-3.......---
7. West Virginia.(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Marshall, 42-10...---
8. Florida............(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Sou. Miss., 34-7....---
9. Florida State..(1-0, 1-0)...Won @ Miami (FL), 13-10.---
10. Miami (FL).....(0-1, 0-1)...Lost vs. Florida St., 13-10..---
11. Virginia Tech..(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. N'eastern, 38-0....---
12. Louisville.........(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Kentucky, 59-28..---
13. Georgia............(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. West. KY, 48-12...---
14. Iowa.................(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Montana, 41-7......---
15. Penn State.......(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Akron, 34-16.........---
16. Oregon.............(1-0, 1-0)...Won vs. Stanford, 48-10....---
17. Nebraska.........(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. LA Tech, 49-10....---
18. Tennessee........(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. California, 35-18..---
19. Michigan...........(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Vanderbilt, 27-7..---
20. Clemson............(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. FL Atlantic, 54-6.---
21. TCU...................(1-0, 0-0)...Won @ Baylor, 17-7...........---
22. Texas Tech.......(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. SMU, 35-3............---
23. Alabama............(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. Hawaii, 25-17.......---
24. Arizona State....(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. North. AZ, 35-14.---
25. Oklahoma..........(1-0, 0-0)...Won vs. UAB, 17-10..........---

Here are the teams I have ranked #26-#50, in order: Georgia Tech, Boise State, UCLA, Tulsa, Minnesota, South Carolina, California, Texas A&M, Rutgers, Wyoming, Wisconsin, Fresno State, UNLV, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Purdue, Arizona, South Florida, Oregon State, Northwestern, Utah, Iowa State, UAB, Toledo, Northern Illinois