2013-14 Statistical College Basketball Rankings, Vol. VIII

Below are my Top 50 rankings through games played on 1/7. Dropping out from last week were #30 Illinois, #33 St. John's, #38 UConn, #41 Butler, and #48 LSU. They were replaced by Louisiana Tech, SMU, Wake Forest, Indiana, and Saint Louis.

Rank	Prev. Rank	TEAM	Record	Weighted Metric	2013-14 Metric Rank	AP Rank
1	2	Arizona	(15-0, 2-0)	2	2	1
2	3	Iowa	(12-3, 1-1)	3.4	1	20
3	4	Ohio State	(15-1, 2-1)	5	4	3
4	1	Villanova	(13-1, 2-0)	6.4	6	8
5	6	Wisconsin	(15-0, 4-0)	8.44	9	4
6	7	Syracuse	(15-0, 2-0)	9.64	10	2
7	11	Florida	(11-2, 0-0)	10.7	5	10
8	17	Pittsburgh	(14-1, 2-0)	10.75	7	30
9	21	San Diego St	(12-1, 1-0)	12	12	13
10	10	Colorado	(13-2, 2-0)	13.25	8	15
11	14	Michigan St	(14-1, 3-0)	14.45	14	5
12	13	Iowa State	(14-0, 2-0)	15.56	17	9
13	5	Oklahoma St	(12-2, 0-1)	16.65	3	11
14	8	Louisville	(13-2, 2-0)	17	16	12
15	15	Kentucky	(10-3, 0-0)	17.652	13	14
16	9	Baylor	(12-2, 0-1)	22.225	29	7
17	18	Wichita St	(15-0, 2-0)	23	23	6
18	24	Cincinnati	(14-2, 3-0)	24.362	22	26
19	35	UCLA	(12-2, 1-0)	25.5	25	28
20	28	Arkansas	(10-3, 0-0)	27.75	24	41
21	25	Harvard	(13-1, 0-0)	28	28	31
22	23	Duke	(12-3, 1-1)	28.95	19	16
23	12	Memphis	(10-3, 1-1)	29.662	34	24
24	50	Creighton	(13-2, 3-0)	33	33	27
25	46	Marquette	(9-6, 1-1)	33.85	27	NR
26	42	George Washington	(12-2, 0-0)	33.975	31	37
27	16	Minnesota	(12-3, 1-1)	35	35	NR
28	20	Missouri	(12-1, 0-0)	35.625	30	21
29	34	Gonzaga	(14-2, 4-0)	36.187	26	22
30	22	N Carolina	(10-4, 0-1)	37.647	20	29
31	36	Virginia	(10-4, 1-0)	37.9	21	NR
32	31	Oregon	(13-1, 1-1)	38	38	17
33	43	Michigan	(10-4, 2-0)	39.2	15	35
34	40	California	(10-4, 1-0)	39.225	37	NR
35	37	New Mexico	(10-3, 1-0)	40.213	36	NR
36	26	Kansas	(9-4, 0-0)	41.808	47	18
37	29	Boise State	(11-3, 1-0)	42.5	39	NR
38	NR	LA Tech	(12-3, 0-0)	42.75	18	NR
39	27	Florida St	(9-4, 0-1)	44	44	NR
40	39	Xavier	(12-3, 2-0)	44.153	43	38
41	NR	S Methodist	(11-3, 1-1)	45	45	36
42	NR	Wake Forest	(11-3, 1-0)	46	46	NR
43	19	Texas	(11-3, 0-1)	46.75	42	NR
44	47	Tennessee	(10-4, 1-0)	48.563	11	NR
45	44	Dayton	(12-3, 0-0)	49.953	40	NR
46	49	Stanford	(9-4, 0-1)	51	51	NR
47	32	U Mass	(12-1, 0-0)	52.053	56	19
48	NR	Indiana	(10-5, 0-2)	54	41	NR
49	NR	Saint Louis	(14-2, 1-0)	54	54	33
50	45	Hawai'i	(11-3, 0-0)	55	55	NR

Maryland Update: After a disappointing drop to 107th last week, the Terps have begun their slow climb, checking in at 92nd this week. Overall team play has improved, not surprisingly, since the return of PG Seth Allen. I have their defense ranked 51st, but offense is just 95th. If they can cut down the turnovers and do a better job getting to the line, they may gradually work their way to the Top 50. more importantly, they need some key wins. Based off of my ratings, they have yet to beat a Top 100 team, with their recent win against 108th Georgia Tech their best win of the season.

December Climate Summary

Snowfall on the Wasatch Bench quickly built up in December, with 19.2" through the first nine days of the month. During that time, there were two days with at least 8" of snow: 8.4" on 12/3, and 8.1" on 12/7. Maximum 12z snow depth was 13" on 12/9. Unfortunately for the final 22 days of the month, only 8.7" of additional snowfall was observed, totaling 27.9" for the month. Temperatures were seasonably cold with an average high of 33.19°F and an average low 19.55°F, resulting in an average monthly temperature of 26.37°F. This was warmer than the SLC airport (24.6°F), which experienced inversion conditions for much of the month.

Bitter cold and snow ravaged Grand Forks and surrounding areas for nearly the entire month. There were five times when the low temperature was colder than -20°F, including a monthly low of -24°F on 12/31, serving as an exclamation point for the month. Probably worse was the fact that 14/31 days failed to record temperatures above zero. It was quite snowy for the month as well, with 22.8" observed, including a daily high of 7.3" on 12/4, and an impressive 15 days of measurable snowfall during the first 17 days of the month. The 22.8" observed was over double the normal December snowfall of 10.8". Back to temperatures though, with an average temperature of 0.6°F at the UND/NWS site, this marked the fourth coldest December on record (source: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMONtavt.pl?nd3621). Here is how December 2013 compared with the previous ten coldest Decembers, as well as the departure from average for the following January:

YEAR(S)	DEC	YEAR(S)	Departure from Avg. (+7.4)
1917	-0.95	1918	N/A
1983	0.32	1984	2.76
1916	0.55	1917	-12.34
2013	0.60	2014	?
1924	1.03	1925	-2.08
1927	1.33	1928	4.37
1893	1.56	1894	-7.3
2008	2.10	2009	-7.3
1919	2.74	1920	-10.8
1985	2.76	1986	5.52
1955	3.06	1956	-3.03

It is not wise to make assumptions from a small sample size, but it is interesting that of the nine January's in which there is data, six were below normal (including four which were 7-12 degrees below normal), while only three were above normal. Considering the current outlook, I doubt January 2014 will be above normal, and there is a decent chance that bitter cold will continue through much of January. Now for my favorite part of this blog post. Here is the December 2013 comparison between Grand Forks and the Wasatch Bench, followed by the final monthly climate numbers from the Wasatch Bench:

Salt Lake City, UT

Day	CW8826 High	CW8826 Low	CW8826 Mean Temp.	SLC Mean Departure	Snowfall	12z Snow Depth
1	50	37	43.5	12	0.0"	0”
2	55	43	49	19	0.0"	0”
3	44	19	31.5	2	8.4"	2"
4	20	6	13	-16	0.4"	8"
5	20	6	13	-17	0.0"	7"
6	19	6	12.5	-15	0.0"	7"
7	26	16	21	-8	8.1"	6"
8	18	11	14.5	-12	2.3"	13"
9	19	3	11	-19	0.0"	14"
10	22	7	14.5	-16	0.0"	13"
11	26	10	18	-15	0.0"	11"
12	26	13	19.5	-15	Trace	11"
13	22	9	15.5	-11	0.0"	10"
14	33	18	25.5	-4	0.0"	10"
15	37	24	30.5	-8	0.0"	9"
16	37	22	29.5	-10	0.0"	8"
17	35	21	28	-9	0.0"	7"
18	44	23	33.5	-8	0.0"	5"
19	42	25	33.5	2	5.5"	4"
20	27	20	23.5	-4	0.2"	8"
21	31	22	26.5	0	1.5"	8"
22	35	27	31	3	1.3"	9"
23	40	32	36	8	0.2"	8"
24	43	28	35.5	4	Trace	7"
25	38	24	31	-2	0.0"	5"
26	35	21	28	-6	0.0"	4"
27	39	22	30.5	-6	0.0"	4"
28	33	21	27	-7	0.0"	4"
29	34	19	26.5	-5	0.0"	3"
30	37	24	30.5	-4	0.0"	3"
31	42	27	34.5	-1	0.0"	3"
December 2013	33.2	19.5	26.37	-5	27.9"	N/A

2013-14 Statistical College Basketball Rankings, Vol. VII

A belated post from New year's Eve, so I'll keep this brief. Here are my rankings through games played on 12/30:

Rank	Prev. Rank	TEAM	Weighted Metric	2013-14 Metric Rank	AP Rank
1	4	Villanova	3.328	2	11
2	1	Arizona	3.987	4	1
3	6	Iowa	5.403	3	22
4	3	Ohio State	5.429	5	3
5	2	Oklahoma St	5.95	1	6
6	9	Wisconsin	8.265	8	4
7	13	Syracuse	8.676	10	2
8	18	Louisville	10.654	9	14
9	19	Baylor	10.805	24	9
10	11	Colorado	10.877	6	20
11	7	Florida	11.354	7	12
12	5	Memphis	12.405	19	18
13	10	Iowa State	12.592	14	13
14	14	Michigan St	15.332	16	5
15	17	Kentucky	15.495	11	15
16	15	Minnesota	18.832	18	NR
17	16	Pittsburgh	20.331	12	37
18	8	Wichita St	21.988	21	8
19	29	Texas	23.379	26	27
20	35	Missouri	24.26	20	25
21	12	San Diego St	30.468	30	21
22	50	N Carolina	30.674	15	19
23	20	Duke	32.335	33	7
24	30	Cincinnati	32.536	45	NR
25	33	Harvard	33.144	32	33
26	23	Kansas	33.647	35	16
27	26	Florida St	34.078	34	31
28	25	Arkansas	34.503	31	NR
29	31	Boise State	34.728	28	NR
30	48	Illinois	36.239	37	26
31	24	Oregon	36.711	38	10
32	36	U Mass	37.693	39	23
33	NR	St Johns	38.725	17	NR
34	42	Gonzaga	39.439	22	24
35	21	UCLA	41.61	42	32
36	40	Virginia	42.207	23	NR
37	34	New Mexico	42.42	36	NR
38	45	Connecticut	43.215	49	17
39	47	Xavier	43.601	40	NR
40	41	California	43.983	46	NR
41	37	Butler	45.455	41	NR
42	43	George Washington	46.368	43	28
43	27	Michigan	48.181	25	34
44	NR	Dayton	50.094	29	NR
45	NR	Hawaii	50.631	47	NR
46	22	Marquette	51.157	54	NR
47	49	Tennessee	51.751	13	NR
48	46	LSU	51.882	59	38
49	39	Stanford	52.931	57	NR
50	32	Creighton	54.059	55	35

Dropping out of the Top 50 were BYU, Saint Louis, and Indiana. They were replaced by St. John's, Dayton, and Hawaii. Weighting from last year's final rankings has been completely removed. I left a very small weight component for recruiting, but these ranking are almost entirely based off of this year's performance for each team, and weighing that off of the overall strength of schedule. Weekly Maryland update:  the home loss to BU was brutal, dropping them to 107th. Terps need a few key ACC wins to move up.