Finally! Winter!!

It's a winter wonderland outside! 1.4" of snow fell on Wednesday the 28th which, believe it or not, doubled our seasonal snowfall. Another system quickly arrived late last night and continued into morning, giving us another 4.4" of snow, for a total of 5.8" of snow this week! It's so nice walking and driving in snow again (yes I like driving in the snow) and seeing massive snow piles in all the parking lots. The final snowfall of the week in this parade of storm systems arrives by morning. I expect a 1-2 hour period of freezing rain to start, then another 2" of additional snowfall on top of that before snow ends during afternoon. Though there are some indications we could receive another 4" snowfall if we win the 'golden shovel' yet again this week!

Then for Saturday night and Sunday, I am getting really pumped up for potentially my first North Dakota ground blizzard. In the wake of this system, sustained winds 25-35 mph gusting to 50 mph will move in. With a potential 6-8" of snow on the ground, this could get interesting!!
Then next week it gets unseasonably mild again. Blah.

Dec. 28th Snow

A nice coating of snow has fallen this evening, and it is still snowing very lightly. Sadly with less than an inch on the ground, this is easily our second deepest snow pack of the season! With fairly calm winds, it's a serene wintry evening.

So much for that

Thanks to temperatures dropping to a new daily low of 22°F just prior to midnight, the daily temperature departure of +31°F was also lowered, down to +28°F. So much for the incredible +30 temperature departure. Still a very nice day.

The rest of the week finally looks like a La Niña pattern with storm systems barreling into the Pacific Northwest, then a fast zonal flow across the northern tier state. This should translate to quick moving systems providing snow chances every 24-36 hours this week. Although the opportunities for snow increase due to the shear number of systems, because of the fast flow, none of these systems should properly mature resulting in generally light snow chances for each system that clips through North Dakota.

This week may be a transient phase though, with the GFS and Euro forecast models continuing to build a ridge over the western United States after New Year's, taking the storm track generally north of us once again. Basically, a return to where we've been for a wile now....dry and warmer than normal. If that comes to fruition, then I highly doubt I will experience true Dakota wintry conditions until at least the middle of January.

+31...Uff da!

With a high of 49 (breaking the record of 44 set 1901) and a low of 28, our average temperature of 39 degrees was a whopping 31 degrees above normal! Pretty rare to have a temperature departure of +/- 30 degrees and I can not remember the last time this happened at a location I was at. On this date last year, Grand Forks had an average temperature of 1 degree (High: 6, Low: -4), which is much closer to the normal high and low of 17 and -1, respectively.

Crazy Christmas Weather

It's sunny and 40°F on Christmas Day in Grand Forks. I have my balcony door open it feels so nice. The morning low was 25°F....a whopping 26 degrees warmer than our normal low, and 8 degrees warmer than our normal HIGH! Could we see record highs today and tomorrow? We should get into the mid-40s today and tomorrow. Here are the records that could be in jeopardy:

12/25-->45°F (1999)
12/26-->44°F (1901)

Christmas/Winter Climo

Looking at the 1981-2010 climate normals for Christmas Day in Grand Forks, the average high is 17.6°F and the average low is -0.4°F. It will certainly be above normal Christmas Day, and possibly record breaking on the 26th with afternoon highs probably reaching the mid-40s.

For the rest of winter, we continue the downward trend in average temperatures into the middle of January before rising. On average, the coldest high temperatures occur January 10th-13th with a high of 15.9°F, while the coldest low temperatures occurs between January 16th-22nd with an average low of -3.6°F. The coldest average days are January 14th-16th, with a mean temperature of 6.2°F.

Brown Christmas

I never expected my first Christmas in Grand Forks to be brown, but that's what I am going to get. I feel unlucky to not see the 3rd White Christmas of my life (1989 - Cambridge, MD; 2009 - Shawnee, KS) since Grand Forks has ~90% probability of a White Christmas. Oh well, more than likely I will see one next year.

I have updated the climate data on the right side. As you can see the crazy warmth continues thanks to this awful weather pattern for those of us who love snow. There are signs of  change coming up by New Year's as a the Pacific Northwest is progged to get blasted by a few big storms - finally breaking down the ridge out west and providing more of a zonal flow. Now instead of all the clipper systems missing us to the north and northeast, they may finally start to track through the Dakotas and provide some snow cover. The 12z Euro was quite ambitious with a decent snow storm on 12/30, with roughly 6-8" progged. Seems like too much QPF and the 00z GFS continues to be far less aggressive. As the saying goes, "drought begets drought", so I will not get too optimistic for any significant snow until we get a large scale hemispheric pattern change that is more conducive for normal winter weather here in the Dakotas.

Lunar Eclipse

At the end of my shift, I was able to see a lunar eclipse. The moon eclipsed from top to bottom, right before setting. I'm sure it was spectacular to see on the west coast. If I recall correctly, the next lunar eclipse that can be viewed in North America will be 2014.

First sub-zero night of the season

Currently 7°F here at the noon hour. I see we dropped to -3°F earlier this morning, making today the first of many sub-zero mornings I will experience. Looks like we will barely make it into the double digits for a high.

As a side note, the coldest days I have experienced were in in California, PA on 2/5/2007 with an average temperature of 0.5°F (High: 6, Low: -5) and in Shawnee, KS on 2/3/2011 with an average temperature of 3.5°F (High: 19, Low: -12). As for the coldest day in Cambridge, MD...not sure, I would have to comb through the archives but certainly not as cold as the previous two days mentioned. Soon enough, those personal records will be shattered.

College Football Rankings (thru 12/3)

...Rank|Last|Team|Record (Overall, Conference)...

1. (1) LSU (13-0, 8-0)
2. (2) Alabama (11-1, 7-1)
3. (5) Oklahoma State (11-1, 8-1)
4. (3) Stanford (11-1, 8-1)
5. (7) USC (10-2, 7-2)
6. (8) Oregon (10-2, 8-1)
7. (14) Wisconsin (11-2, 6-2)
8. (11) TCU (10-2, 7-0)
9. (12) Boise State (11-1, 6-1)
10. (10) Arkansas (10-2, 6-2)
11. (24) Southern Miss (11-2, 6-2)
12. (4) Houston (12-1, 8-0)
13. (18) Kansas State (10-2, 7-2)
14. (22) Clemson (10-3, 6-2)
15. (9) Michigan State (10-3, 7-1)
16. (16) Michigan (10-2, 6-2)
17. (6) Virginia Tech (11-2, 7-1)
18. (19) Baylor (9-3, 5-3)
19. (13) Georgia (10-3, 7-1)
20. (17) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2)
21. (20) Nebraska (9-3, 5-3)
22. (21) West Virginia (9-3, 6-2)
23. (15) Oklahoma (9-3, 6-3)
24. (23) Penn State (9-3, 6-2)
25. (NR) Northern Illinois (10-3, 7-1)

Dropped from Rankings: #25 Georgia Tech

Others receiving votes: Arkansas State, Auburn, BYU, Cincinnati, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Iowa, Louisiana Tech, Louisville, Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio, Rutgers, Temple, Toledo, Tulsa, Virginia, Wyoming

College Football Rankings (thru 11/30)

...Rank|Last|Team|Record (Overall, Conference)...

1. (1) LSU (12-0, 8-0)
2. (4) Alabama (11-1, 7-1)
3. (5) Stanford (11-1, 8-1)
4. (17) Houston (12-0, 8-0)
5. (7) Oklahoma State (10-1, 7-1)
6. (24) Virginia Tech (11-1, 7-1)
7. (NR) USC (10-2, 7-2)
8. (14) Oregon ( 10-2, 8-1)
9. (NR) Michigan State (10-2, 7-1)
10. (11) Arkansas (10-2, 6-2)
11. (NR) TCU (9-2, 6-0)
12. (15) Boise State (10-1, 5-1)
13. (NR) Georgia (10-2, 7-1)
14. (2) Wisconsin (10-2, 6-2)
15. (3) Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2)
16. (12) Michigan (10-2, 6-2)
17. (22) South Carolina (10-2, 6-2)
18. (14) Kansas State (9-2, 6-2)
19. (20) Baylor (8-3, 5-3)
20. (19) Nebraska (9-3, 5-3)
21. (15) West Virginia (8-3, 5-2)
22. (8) Clemson (9-3, 6-2)
23. (NR) Penn State (9-3, 6-2)
24. (NR) Southern Miss (10-2, 6-2)
25. (10) Georgia Tech (8-4, 5-3)

Dropped from rankings: #13 Illinois, #16 Arizona State, #18 Auburn, #21 Texas, #23 Florida, #25 Navy

Others receiving votes: Arizona State, Arkansas State, Auburn, BYU. Cincinnati, Florida, Florida State, Iowa, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana Tech, Louisville, Missouri, Northern Illinois, Notre Dame, Ohio, Ohio State, Rutgers, SMU, Temple, Texas, Texas Tech, Toledo, Tulsa, Virginia, Washington, Western Michigan

1981-2010 GFK Winter Climate Normals

Grand Forks UND/NWS	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May		DJF Normals	Mean Seasonal Snowfall
Normal High	54.1°F	34.9°F	20.1°F	16.0°F	22.4°F	34.6°F	54.5°F	68.2°F		19.5°F
Normal Low	34.0°F	19.1°F	4.3°F	-1.3°F	4.6°F	17.6°F	31.5°F	43.3°F		2.5°F
Normal Mean	44.1°F	27.0°F	12.2°F	7.4°F	13.5°F	26.1°F	43.0°F	55.8°F		11.0°F
Normal Precipitation	1.92”	0.90”	0.65”	0.71”	0.59”	1.02”	0.98”	2.75”		1.95”
Normal Snowfall	1.0”	6.1”	10.9”	10.4”	6.9”	6.4”	1.0”	0.1”		28.2”	42.8”

November 2011 Climate Data

Grand Forks, ND (GFK)

Day|HI|LO|Dep.|Precip.|Snow
1.....55...35...+10...0.00"...0.0"
2.....50...24...+3...0.00"...0.0"
3.....56...20...+4...0.00"...0.0"
4.....59...35...+14...0.00"...0.0"
5.....57...40...+17...0.00"...0.0"
6.....52...34...+11...0.01"...0.0"
7.....44...20...+1...0.00"...0.0"
8.....53...15...+3...0.00"...0.0"
9.....40...20....0...Trace...Trace
10....40...21...+2...Trace...Trace
11....55...24...+11...0.00"...0.0"
12....49...20...+7...0.00"...0.0"
13....41...30...+8...0.00"...0.0"
14....46...21...+7...0.00"...0.0"
15....33...16...-1...0.04"...1.1"
16....24...12...-8...Trace...Trace
17....24....3...-11...0.00"...0.0"
18....29...16...-1...0.00"...0.0"
19....19....8...-10...Trace...Trace
20....20....6...-10...0.00"...0.0"
21....31....7....-4...0.00"...0.0"
22....42...19...+9...0.00"...0.0"
23....58...25...+21...0.00"...0.0"
24....56...28...+21...0.00"...0.0"
25....42...29...+16...0.00"...0.0"
26....35...30...+13...0.03"...0.3"
27....34...14....+5...0.00"...0.0"
28....51...16...+15...0.00"...0.0"
29....41....9....+7...0.00"...0.0"
30....34...21...+10...Trace...Trace




Average High: 42.3°F [Departure from Normal: +7.0°F]
Average Low: 20.6°F [Departure from Normal: +2.5°F]
Mean Temperature: 31.5°F [Departure from Normal: +5.4]

Total Precipitation: 0.08" [Departure from Normal:-0.82"]
Total Snowfall: 1.4" [Departure from Normal: -4.7"]


 Seasonal Snowfall: 1.4" [Departure from Normal: -5.7"]