Latest Forecast Track of Hurricane Irene

8/26 EDIT:  A slight increase in forecast winds and rain from yesterday. Irene should probably track right along the coast, with hurricane forced winds a near certainty for Ocean City, with gusts to 100mph. In Cambridge, expect tropical storm forced wind gusts (39 mph or greater) to develop as early as 6pm Saturday and continue until noon Sunday. The highest sustained winds look to occur during a 6-hour period overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. During this peak wind time, expect sustained winds 40-60 mph, with gusts to 75 mph (Category 1 hurricane strength). Storm surge up the bay will not be as bad as Isabel because the track of Irene will push more water up the Atlantic coast than up the Bay. Still, an increase of 2-4 feet is possible.

Lastly and most importantly, expect torrential rainfall causing significant flooding. I am upgrading my forecast rainfall for Cambridge to 6-10" Saturday through Sunday morning. The initial outer bands of rain look to arrive around midnight tonight and continue throughout Saturday into Sunday morning, ending by noon Sunday. Keep in mind, Cambridge's average monthly rainfall for August is 4.59". So we are talking potentially two months worth of rain during the course of a day and a half...there will be flooding!


11:51AM, 8/26 UPDATE: Hurricane Warning now in effect for Dorchester County.

Hurricane Irene Google Map Forecast Track

8:46AM, 8/26 EDIT:  Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Eastern Shore of Maryland, except for Worcester County. Hurricane Warning in effect for Worcester County, the Eastern Shore of Virginia, and all of Delaware. Here is the current forecast by the National Weather Service out of Wakefield, VA:

Saturday: Tropical storm conditions expected. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 79. East wind 16 to 21 mph increasing to between 29 and 34 mph. Winds could gust as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Tropical storm conditions expected. Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 73. Northeast wind 36 to 46 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible.

Sunday: Tropical storm conditions possible. Scattered showers before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Cambridge, MD Forecast | NWS-Wakefield, VA

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8/25 EDIT: Ruh-roh...this is looking like Bad News Bears from North Carolina to New England. For back home, the latest forecast track would give tropical storm forced winds (as of now, I estimate sustained winds 40-50 mph with gusts to 65 mph) Saturday night into Sunday morning, as well as heavy rain. The data I looked at last night would give Cambridge 5-8" of rain, with probably a foot of rain at Ocean City. Conditions should improve Sunday afternoon, but at what cost?

2011-12 English Premier League Predictions

1. Manchester United (2012-13 UEFA Champions League)
2. Manchester City (2012-13 UEFA Champions League)
3. Chelsea (2012-13 UEFA Champions League)
4. Liverpool (2012-13 UEFA Champions League playoff round qualification)
5. Tottenham (2012-13 UEFA Europa League)
6. Arsenal (2012-13 UEFA Europa League playoff round qualification)
7. Aston Villa (2012-13 UEFA Europa League playoff round qualification)
8. West Bromwich Albion
9. Fulham
10. Bolton
11. Stoke City
12. Everton
13. Newcastle
14. Sunderland
15. Wolverhampton
16. Norwich City
17. Queen's Park Rangers
18. Wigan Athletic (Relegated to the 2012-13 Football League Championship)
19. Blackburn Rovers (Relegated to the 2012-13 Football League Championship)
20. Swansea City (Relegated to the 2012-13 Football League Championship)

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2012-13 teams promoted from 2011-12 Football League Championship:

1. West Ham United
2. Leeds United
3. Nottingham Forest

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Golden Boot: Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez (Manchester United)
Top Assists: Luis Suarez (Liverpool)
Golden Glove: Joe Hart (Manchester City)

Hurricane Irene & the Potential Rarity of a Georgia Landfall

As I alluded to in my previous post, the southeast needs to monitor Hurricane Irene. However the same holds true for the Mid-Atlantic as well since heavy rains and storm surge may be possible this weekend or early next week as it continues northward. In conversations with a couple of other meteorologists, I could not recall a hurricane making a direct landfall on the Georgia coastline in my 15+ years of tracking tropical storms and hurricanes. Turns out I was right. In fact, it hasn't happened in my lifetime. Here is an excerpt from a story posted online by The Augusta Chronicle last year in reference to Hurricane Earl:

Here is some background on Georgia's Hurricane History:
- Aug. 27, 1881: A major hurricane hits the coast, killing 700 people.
- Aug. 27-28, 1893: A major hurricane hits the Georgia and South Carolina coasts, killing 1,000 to 2,500 people and leaving 30,000 homeless.
- Aug. 31, 1898: The last Category 3 hurricane to date to make landfall in Georgia strikes Savannah, with 179 deaths.
- 1911: A Category 2 hurricane hits Savannah, killing 17 people.
- 1940: A Category 2 hurricane hits Savannah, killing 50 people.
- 1947: A Category 2 hurricane hits Savannah, killing one person.
- 1979: Category 2 Hurricane David hits Savannah, causing minor damage.

Source: Georgia Emergency Management Agency

 Source: http://chronicle.augusta.com/content/blog-post/rob-pavey/2010-09-01/georgia-rarely-gets-hit-hurricanes-here-s-why

So that's 7 Georgia hurricanes in the last 130 years (average of 1 every 18.5 years) with Hurricane David being the last one in 1979. That's 32 years ago, which means Georgia is past due for a hurricane to make landfall. Interestingly, David's track (Source: Wikipedia) looks fairly similar to Irene's future track shown in my previous post.

77mph Wind Gust at Dover AFB, DE!

KDOV 211451Z AUTO 33045G67KT 3/4SM R01/0600VP6000FT -TSRA SQ FEW004 BKN018 OVC026 24/19 A2995 RMK AO2 PK WND 33067/1450 RAB1451 TSB1405E1420B1423 PRESFR SLP144


A severe thunderstorm developed Sunday morning and produced a 77 mph wind gust at Dover AFB, DE around 11am. Above is the METAR report when the storm began, and I have placed in bold the maximum wind gust of 67 knots (77.2 mph). For those of you not familiar with weather coding, here are what a majority of those codes mean:


KDOV-->4-character station ID for Dover AFB
211451Z-->Date and time [21: 21st of the month, 1451Z: zulu time (10:51 eastern time)]
33045G67KT-->Direction wind is from (330°), sustained wind speed (45 kt), and maximum wind gust (67kt)
3/4SM-->Visibility in statute miles
-TSRA SQ-->Significant present weather...in this case, light thunderstorm (-TS), moderate rain (RA), and squalls (SQ)
FEW004 BKN018 OVC026-->Cloud conditions and cloud height in hundreds of feet (Few clouds at 400 feet, Broken clouds at 1800 feet, Overcast skies at 2600 feet)
24/19-->Temperature/Dewpoint in degrees celsius. Air temperature: 24°C (75.2°F), Dew Point Temperature: 19°C (66.2°F)
A2995-->Altimeter in hundredths of inches of mercury (A2995 = 29.95")
RAB 1451-->Remark indicating that rain began at 1451Z


See, you do learn something new everyday. Although Dover is over an hour away from Cambridge, I am a little jealous that all this exciting weather has occurred in or near areas I used to live. Here is a screenshot of the Dover radar when this storm produced 77 mph gusts at Dover...

I have never experienced a thunderstorm that produced wind gusts as strong as this storm in Dover...let alone the 70-85 mph gusts that the KC Metro experienced a few days ago. For comparison, hurricane-forced winds are 74 mph or greater. Speaking of hurricanes, time to keep an eye on Hurricane Irene...

Hey, good morning to you!

62.6°F in the apartment when I got home from work a little while ago. Nice! The morning low was 56°F at GFK (Grand Forks International Airport). Overnight I was the forecaster for Kansas and Nebraska, which I have obviously become quite familiar with. Looks like I'll pick up Nevada tomorrow night for the first time.

Song of the day:  Band of Horses - Part One        ...song #41 in my playlist-->

Delightful evening

My thermometer reads 60.8°F (not exactly accurate since I live on the 3rd floor, but close enough) at 11:04pm...latest GFS-LAMP MOS guidance has us getting down to 50°F tonight! Just exchanged a few texts with my mother and she said she thinks Fall and Winter are going to come early for me. I had to laugh because I know it will. I've heard the stories. A guy at work mentioned the other day about having to go the long way to work a couple times last winter because the railroad crossing posts froze up while a train was crossing the road, which blocked traffic until they thawed out. I laughed but that was a little unsettling to hear.

Time to get ready for my first midnight shift at Meridian. This will be like an old hat for me since I spent about 8 of the last 10 months working mids.

Back Out of Retirement

I decided I am going to start blogging again because I want to chronicle my first winter in the Siberia of the United States known as Grand Forks, ND. Looks like my last post was Halloween 2010. This was almost exclusively a sports blog in the past, particularly college football related. I may occasionally post sports related stuff, but the main purpose of this is to give a first hand account to my family back home in Maryland and friends across the country what frigid weather is really like. To avoid boring people and encourage myself to post almost daily, I will keep future entries to just a couple sentences.

So bookmark this page to keep up to date with my most recent posts. When it gets cold, just visit this blog and see how much colder I am....I'm sure you'll feel a lot better. Comments are welcome, just be sure to leave your name or it will say anonymous.