Overrated/Underrated: A Look Back at my Preseason Top 50

My Preseason Top 50

My LSU/USC national championship was only half-right and then it got kinda ugly. But there are a few bright spots which I will show. And then again some teams (ehem, Louisville) just did not live up to the expectations of most.

Top 13 Overachieving Teams

Team	Record	Pre-Bowl Rank	Pre-Season Rank	Difference
Kansas	(11-1, 7-1)	9	66	57
Illinois	(9-3, 6-2)	13	61	48
Arizona State	(10-2, 7-2)	11	50	39
Georgia	(10-2, 6-2)	2	37	35
Cincinnati	(9-3, 4-3)	22	56	34
Virginia	(9-3, 6-2)	23	57	34
Connecticut	(9-3, 5-2)	29	62	33
Mississippi State	(7-5, 4-4)	40	72	32
Kentucky	(7-5, 3-5)	33	63	30
Boston College	(10-3, 6-2)	14	42	28
Air Force	(9-3, 6-2)	30	55	25
Central Florida	(10-3, 7-1)	39	64	25
Ohio State	(11-1, 7-1)	1	22	21

Top 13 Underachieving Teams

Team	Record	Pre-Bowl Rank	Pre-Season Rank	Difference
Nebraska	(5-7, 2-6)	77	17	-60
California	(6-6, 3-6)	61	12	-49
Notre Dame	(3-9)	80	35	-45
Ohio	(6-6, 4-4)	72	29	-43
Miami(FL)	(5-7, 2-6)	78	36	-42
Rutgers	(7-5, 3-4)	46	7	-39
Louisville	(6-6, 3-4)	49	11	-38
Western Michigan	(5-7, 3-4)	79	48	-31
Iowa	(6-6, 4-4)	74	47	-27
Central Michigan	(8-5, 6-1)	54	27	-27
Southern Miss.	(7-5, 5-3)	68	43	-25
Michigan	(8-4, 6-2)	27	3	-24
TCU	(7-5, 4-4)	41	18	-23

13 Teams that Met Expectations

Team	Record	Pre-Bowl Rank	Pre-Season Rank	Difference
Oklahoma	(11-2, 6-2)	5	5	0
Oregon State	(8-4, 6-3)	31	31	0
Florida	(9-3, 5-3)	10	9	-1
Arkansas	(8-4, 4-4)	18	19	1
LSU	(11-2, 6-2)	3	1	-2
Utah	(8-4, 5-3)	28	30	2
Virginia Tech	(11-2, 7-1)	4	8	4
Auburn	(8-4, 5-3)	24	20	-4
Oregon	(8-4, 5-4)	38	34	-4
USC	(10-2, 7-2)	7	2	-5
West Virginia	(10-2, 5-2)	12	6	-6
Boise State	(10-2, 7-1)	19	13	-6
Oklahoma State	(6-6, 4-4)	43	49	6

So there you have it...if you are interested in a team that I have not listed, let me know.

Assuming Hawaii Doesn't Choke like Missouri and WVU...

Rank	Previous	Team	Record
1	3	Ohio State	(11-1, 7-1)
2	4	Georgia	(10-2, 6-2)
3	5	LSU	(11-2, 6-2)
4	7	Virginia Tech	(11-2, 7-1)
5	11	Oklahoma	(11-2, 6-2)
6	8	Hawai'i	(11-0, 8-0)
7	9	USC	(10-2, 7-2)
8	1	Missouri	(11-2, 7-1)
9	6	Kansas	(11-1, 7-1)
10	10	Florida	(9-3, 5-3)
11	13	Arizona State	(10-2, 7-2)
12	2	West Virginia	(10-2, 5-2)
13	14	Illinois	(9-3, 6-2)
14	12	Boston College	(10-3, 6-2)
15	15	Clemson	(9-3, 5-3)
16	16	Tennessee	(9-4, 6-2)
17	17	Wisconsin	(9-3, 5-3)
18	18	Arkansas	(8-4, 4-4)
19	19	Boise State	(10-2, 7-1)
20	20	South Florida	(9-3, 4-3)
21	22	BYU	(10-2, 8-0)
22	21	Cincinnati	(9-3, 4-3)
23	23	Virginia	(9-3, 6-2)
24	24	Auburn	(8-4, 5-3)
25	25	Texas Tech	(8-4, 4-4)
26	26	Texas	(9-3, 5-3)
27	28	Michigan	(8-4, 6-2)
28	29	Utah	(8-4, 5-3)
29	30	Connecticut	(9-3, 5-2)
30	31	Air Force	(9-3, 6-2)
31	42	Oregon State	(8-4, 6-3)
32	32	Wake Forest	(8-4, 5-3)
33	34	Kentucky	(7-5, 3-5)
34	35	Michigan State	(7-5, 3-5)
35	39	Texas A&M	(7-5, 4-4)
36	40	Penn State	(8-4, 4-4)
37	37	South Carolina	(6-6, 3-5)
38	27	Oregon	(8-4, 5-4)
39	44	Central Florida	(10-3, 7-1)
40	41	Mississippi State	(7-5, 4-4)
41	45	TCU	(7-5, 4-4)
42	46	Georgia Tech	(7-5, 4-4)
43	48	Oklahoma State	(6-6, 4-4)
44	49	Florida State	(7-5, 4-4)
45	50	Fresno State	(8-4, 6-2)
46	33	Rutgers	(7-5, 3-4)
47	38	UCLA	(6-6, 5-4)
48	43	Tulsa	(9-4, 6-2)
49	NR	Louisville	(6-6, 3-4)
50	36	Troy	(8-4, 6-1)

Final Bowl Outlook

Bowl Game	Predicted Matchup
Poinsettia	NR Navy vs. NR Utah
New Orleans	NR Memphis vs. NR Florida Atlantic
Las Vegas	#21 BYU vs. NR California
New Mexico	#45 Fresno State vs. NR New Mexico
Papa Johns	NR Southern Miss. vs. #22 Cincinnati
Hawaii	NR East Carolina vs. NR Nevada
Motor City	NR Indiana vs. NR Central Michigan
Holiday	#25 Texas Tech vs. #11 Arizona State
Emerald	#44 Florida State vs. #38 Oregon
Texas	#45 TCU vs. NR Houston
Champs Sports	#23 Virginia vs. NR Iowa
Liberty	#39 Central Florida vs. #37 South Carolina
Meineke Car Care	#32 Wake Forest vs. #30 Connecticut
Alamo	#35 Texas A&M vs. #36 Penn State
Independence	#43 Oklahoma State vs. #34 Kentucky
Armed Forces	#47 UCLA vs. #31 Air Force
Music City	#42 Georgia Tech vs. #40 Mississippi State
Sun	#31 Oregon State vs. #20 South Florida
Insight	NR Colorado vs. #34 Michigan State
Chik-Fil-A Peach	#18 Arkansas vs. #14 Boston College
Humanitarian	NR Maryland vs. #19 Boise State
Outback	#17 Wisconsin vs. #24 Auburn
Cotton	#9 Kansas vs. #16 Tennessee
Gator	#15 Clemson vs. #26 Texas
Capital One	#10 Florida vs. #27 Michigan
Rose	#13 Illinois vs. #9 USC
Sugar	#3 LSU vs. #8 Missouri
Fiesta	#5 Oklahoma vs. #6 Hawaii
Orange	#4 Virginia Tech vs. #12 West Virginia
International	NR Ball State vs. #46 Rutgers
GMAC	NR Bowling Green vs. #48 Tulsa
BCS Championship	#1 Ohio State vs. #2 Georgia

*Bold denotes team has accepted bowl bid as of midnight