Championship Week Picks

MAC Championship (Thursday, 11/30, 7:30)
#35 Ohio - 20 vs. #49 Central Michigan - 19
I like Frank Solich to lead his Bobcats to victory in the MAC title game and an eventual spot in the Motor City Bowl. It should be an exciting game though.

Conference USA Championship (Friday, 11/1, 8:00)
NR Southern Miss. - 29 vs. #30 Houston - 34
This is an intriguing rematch from earlier this season. Southern Miss. was the only conference loss for the Houston Cougars. This time around, I expect Houston to get their revenge, leading to a spot in the Liberty Bowl.

ACC Championship (Saturday, 11/2, 1:00)
#13 Wake Forest - 24 vs. #25 Georgia Tech - 13
The Demon Deacons magical season continues with a victory over the Yellow Jackets. A win will give them an automatic BCS bid and a probable spot in the Orange Bowl .

SEC Championship (Saturday, 11/2, 6:00)
#7 Arkansas - 15 vs. #5 Florida - 17
The Gators keep winning ugly so why stop now? Florida will get an automatic BCS berth and should go to the Sugar Bowl where they may have an intriguing matchup against Notre Dame.

Big 12 Championship (Saturday, 11/2, 8:00)
#22 Nebraska - 23 vs. #11 Oklahoma - 28
I really want to pick Nebraska here, but the Sooners have been on fire since they were screwed over at Oregon. This should be a back and forth game with Oklahoma winning by a close margin.

Other big games:
NR Connecticut - 10 @ #4 Louisville - 52
I only include this blowout pick because of reasons listed below. Look for Louisville to win the Big East and clinch a BCS bowl berth.


NR Army - 20 vs. #37 Navy - 37
Navy has been the better team for quite some time now, so I am not expecting anything shocking here. Bobby Ross will have his Cadets give a commendable performance though.


#3 USC - 35 @ #39 UCLA - 27
I want to go with the upset pick here just out of sheer disdain for the Trojans being ahead of Michigan in the polls. I will predict a close game, I just can not pull the trigger on an upset. I suspect USC will unconvincingly remain at #2 in the BCS after this game. Most likely we will see a BCS Championship of Ohio State vs. USC.


#15 Rutgers - 24 @ #13 West Virginia - 34
If Rutgers win, they win the Big East and go to a BCS Bowl since they beat Louisville earlier this year. West Virginia needs some help to get an automatic BCS berth. They need to beat Louisville and have Louisville lose. In addition, they need to have a higher ranking than Louisville and Rutgers to advance to a BCS game. That my friends, is a long shot. I like the Mountaineers to win at home, but there is no way Louisville loses a home game to Connecticut. West Virginia goes to the Gator Bowl with a victory here. Then again, will Pat White be healthy?


#28 Oregon State - 37 @ #19 Hawaii - 48
Aside from Louisiana Tech, these are the only other teams that will play 13 regular season games. Both teams will go to bowl games as well, making them possibly the only college teams to have 14-game seasons. As for this game, I expect a similar result to last week's Purdue/Hawaii game. Hawaii won that game 42-35, led by astounding QB Colt Brennan (33-48, 434 yards, 3TD's, 1INT). Brennan has 51 TD passes this season and I expect him to get 4 more to break the single-season record of 54 TD's, set by former Houston QB David Klinger in 1990.

Post-Thanksgiving Rankings

It's been ten days and probably ten pounds later, but I am back with my up-to-date rankings. I did update last week, I just did not post it. As for this week, I guess I am in the minority by keeping Michigan at #2, but it seems legit to me. I have two arguments to support my point.

1. USC's lone loss was at unranked Oregon State. Michigan's lone loss was at #1 Ohio State.
2. Both teams beat Notre Dame. USC won in L.A. by 20 points. Michigan won at South Bend by 26 points.

Both factors favor Michigan to be the better team. Unfortunately the powers that be are only looking at recent events. Excuse me, but USC lost to a mediocre team this year, Michigan lost only to the best. Therefore Michigan remains more rewarding of the #2 rank. Let's not forget that USC plays at UCLA this coming Saturday. This will not be a cakewalk for the Trojans by any means. After all, the Bruins did something the Trojans could not do this year, they convincingly beat Oregon State by a score of 25-7. This game could be much closer than the experts think. Elsewhere in the Top 25, Boise State finally moves into my top 10 at #9 with a perfect record of 12-0. West Virginia drops out of the top 10 for the first time all year, thanks to their disappointing home loss to unranked South Florida. Hawaii continues their ascent into the top 20, and Georgia and TCU return to the top 25, replacing Boston College and Maryland.


Teams rising up: #17 Texas A&M (+8), #19 Hawaii (+5), #23 Georgia (+10), #26 South Florida (+13), #32 South Carolina (+6), #8 Missouri (+6), #41 Arizona State (+10), #42 Miami, FL (+10)

Teams fading: #10 Notre Dame (-5), #13 West Virginia (-7), #20 Texas (-5), #25 Georgia Tech (-9), #27 Boston College (-13), #33 Maryland (-11), #34 Clemson (-8), #43 Arizona (-12), #46 Kentucky (-5), #48 Oregon (-6)
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2006-07 Bowl Outlook

Pictured below are my predictions for the upcoming bowl season, based on my rankings. Teams listed in bold have already accepted invitations to the respective bowls they are placed in. There are 73 bowl eligible teams competing for 32 bowl games. That means nine teams will be unlucky this year. Of those 9 that I do not project to go to a bowl, only three teams exist in major conferences (Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Washington State). Here are my projections:

For Bo...GO BLUE!

For my final pick of the week, I am rooting for the Michigan Wolverines to beat the Ohio State Buckeyes. As late as this morning, I was almost ready to pull the trigger and pick Ohio State to win 21-20. My main factor in predicting a Buckeye win was the efforts of my pre-season Heisman winner pick, QB Troy Smith. I felt he was going to single-handedly break down the Michigan defense, as he has done in years past. However my feelings changed abruptly when I heard the sad news around Noon today.

I assume that if you are taking the time to read this, then you already know that the former legendary coach of Michigan, Bo Schembechler, died at the age of 77 this morning. Very sad news indeed in this heated rivalry, yet incredibly ironic that he died one day before what is being dubbed 'The Game of the Millennium." I am a sentimentalist at heart, and it is hard for me to believe that Michigan will not play with any extra motivation or inspiration tomorrow. He was a beloved, iconic figure in Ann Arbor, and I have no doubt in my mind the Wolverines will go into the Horseshoe and win one for Bo.

That being said, here is a brief breakdown of how I think the game will go down. Ohio State will be led by Heisman candidate Troy Smith. Smith will run pass for a touchdown and run for two more. The Wolverines will spread the ball more efficiently though, keeping the Buckeyes off-balance. Mike Hart will run for 107 yards and a touchdown. In case you do not know, the Wolverines are 17-1 when Hart runs for 100+ yards, with their lone loss coming against Minnesota last year. However in his two games against Ohio State, he has 27 rushes for a combined 76 yards and one touchdown. So it could be argued this is a bold prediction I am making regarding Hart. Elsewhere, I expect Chad Henne to pass for two touchdowns, both to 'super sophomore' Mario Manningham. In addition, the Wolverines will tack on two field goals from kicker Garrett Rivas. The 99th game between Michigan and Ohio State will be one for the ages.

Your final score from Columbus, OH:
#2 Michigan Wolverines - 27
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes - 21

Lucky 7 Picks

In case you are not aware, I will reserve my pick on the Michigan @ Ohio State game until Friday. Let the suspense begin!! For now, I will pick seven games from this week for your enjoyment.

'Backyard Brawl'
#7 West Virginia - 56 @ NR Pitt - 28
Pitt lost at UConn last week in double overtime, 46-45. I expect their defense to get throttled by WVU's electric offense.

'Iron Bowl'
#22 Auburn - 31 @ NR Alabama - 13
Kenny Irons runs wild for 3 TD's in the Iron Bowl, helping the Tigers bounce back from their disappointing loss last week.

#17 Maryland - 20 @ #19 Boston College-18
I learned my lesson a couple weeks ago, I will not pick against the Terps while they keep winning. It's ugly every week, but this team gets the job done. Wins over Miami and Florida State in the same year are stunning.

#18 Virginia Tech - 10 @ #12 Wake Forest - 20
Who woulda' thunk it? The Demon Deacons are one of the most impressive football teams in the country. I am really looking forward to their showdown with the Terps in two weeks.

#33 South Florida - 24 @ #8 Louisville - 30
This game has upset written all over it. If I had another one of those gut feelings, I'd pull the trigger, but that's not the case this time. I am going with Louisville in a squeaker.

#25 California - 28 @ #4 USC - 34
Cal really needs to bounce back after last week's embarrassing loss to Arizona. Unfortunately for them they have to do it against the Trojans. My predicted score indicates a close game, but I think USC leads from start to finish.

Upset Special (sorta)
#42 Central Michigan - 31 @ NR Northern Illinois - 37
Well, I had to dig kind of deep for this one. Central Michigan has a spot reserved in the MAC Championship game, whether they win this game or not. Northern Illinois has severely underachieved, even with one of the best RB's in the country, Garrett Wolfe. I think the Huskies finally get their act together to earn a bowl berth, with a win over the Chippewas.

In addition, I predict the following teams will win this weekend to become bowl eligible:
Minnesota over Iowa, South Carolina over Middle Tennessee, Florida State over Western Michigan, Miami over Virginia, Indiana over Purdue, Wyoming over UNLV, UTEP over Marshall, Troy over Arkansas State, and UCLA over Arizona State

REMEMBER...My prediction for the Ohio State/Michigan game will be released on Friday!!!

Rankings Comparison

http://www.xanga.com/speedydave24

Check out my buddy Dave's rankings in comparison to mine and the BCS. Good stuff!!! By the way, later tonight I will be making my picks for this week. However, I will wait until Friday night or Saturday morning before picking the Ohio State/Michigan game.

Movers and Shakers

Teams rising up: #3 Arkansas (+5), #4 USC (+5), #6 Rutgers (+8) (I can't believe Rutgers is #6 in the country, I remember when they were one of the worse teams in Div. 1-A!), #12 Wake Forest (+8), #17 Maryland (+6), #20 BYU (+5), #27 Hawaii (+5), #32 Arizona (+13), #34 Georgia (+17), #35 Kansas State (+17), #42 Central Michigan (+9), #48 UCLA (-6)

Teams fading: #8 Louisville (-5), #15 Texas (-11), #21 Tennessee (-6), #22 Auburn (-17), #25 California (-13), #36 Oregon State (-12), #37 Oregon (-9), #47 Miami (-10), #49 Tulsa (-15), #50 Florid State (-15)

Put a fork in 'em: The following unranked teams dropped out of my top 50: Alabama, Western Michigan, Pittsburgh, Wyoming, Washington State (note: all of these teams could still earn bowl berths, but nothing to write home about)

Send them back to the cook: The following teams have returned to the top 50 after being previously written off: Georgia, Arizona State, UCLA

Week 11 Rankings

I think I had a tougher time making this week's rankings than ever before. There are some inconsistencies and arguments can be made (i.e. Arkansas ranked ahead of USC...West Virginia ahead of Louisville), but I ranked teams in order that I feel they should be ranked. Two weeks ago, Louisville was better than West Virginia. This week I feel West Virginia is better. Two months ago USC was much better than Arkansas, now I feel the Razorbacks are slightly better. All in all, this was a very difficult week to rank teams. As such, I expect another big shake-up either next week or the following week due to some teams being ranked too high or too low. Nevertheless, here is what I think for now and I expect some controversy...

My 2006-07 Preseason College Basketball Rankings

It is my custom to rank the top 65 college basketball teams since that is the number of teams that make the tourney in March. However since these are preseason rankings, I have no desire to breakdown, let alone list, all 65 ranked teams. Instead I will keep it short and sweet by just listing the top 25 (in reverse order for dramatic effect) and let you agree or disagree. As always, comments are welcome!

25. Marquette Golden Eagles (AP-16, Coaches-17)
24. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (AP-23, Coaches-21)
23. Southern Illinois Salukis (AP-27, Coaches-29)
22. Wichita State Shockers (AP-26, Coaches-27)
21. Nevada Wolfpack (AP-24, Coaches-25)
20. Creighton Bluejays (AP-19, Coaches-23)
19. Memphis Tigers (AP-14, Coaches-14)
18. Texas Longhorns (AP-21, Coaches-21)
17. Syracuse Orange (AP-20, Coaches-20)
16. Texas A&M Aggies (AP-13, Coaches-13)
15. Arizona Wildcats (AP-10, Coaches-10)
14. Connecticut Huskies (AP-18, Coaches-18)
13. Washington Huskies (AP-17, Coaches-16)
12. Boston College Eagles (AP-15, Coaches-15)
11. Duke Blue Devils (AP-12, Coaches-11)
10. Georgetown Hoyas (AP-8, Coaches-8)
9. Alabama Crimson Tide (AP-11, Coaches-12)
8. UCLA Bruins (AP-6, Coaches-6)
7. Kansas Jayhawks (AP-3, Coaches-3)
6. Pitt Panthers (AP-4, Coaches-5)
5. Wisconsin Badgers (AP-9, Coaches-9)
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (AP-7, Coaches-4)
3. LSU Tigers (AP-5, Coaches-7)
2. Florida Gators (AP-1, Coaches-1)
1. North Carolina Tar Heels (AP-2, Coaches-2)

Preseason College Basketball Rankings on Hold

I am still in the process of researching college basketball teams so I apologize for the delay in the rankings. I wanted to have them up a week or so ago but I have only had enough spare time to fool with college football stuff. Hopefully I can post my preseason rankings Friday night. I will tell you right now that I am in strong disagreement with several teams ranked in the top 25 of the AP and Media polls. That's all I can tease you with for now!

To my Anonymous Rutgers Fan...

Rejoice, this post is especially for you. I am picking 8 games this week and highlighting the schedule will be the Thursday night game between Louisville and Rutgers. I have heard all year from you how I am not giving Rutgers the respect they deserve, when in fact I have the Scarlet Knights ranked slightly higher than the AP and Media polls. That's ok that you feel they deserve more respect, I understand. I dedicate this to you because I want you to know I am giving Rutgers all the respect they deserve this week. That's right, I am predicting Rutgers to defeat #3 Louisville this week. I hope you enjoy this.

#3 Louisville -29 @ #14 Rutgers -31
My "master plan" of assuring that Ohio St. & Michigan have a rematch for the National Championship continues with Louisville losing at Rutgers.

#37 Miami (FL) - 9 @ #23 Maryland - 17
The Hurricanes look like a bunch of bums and I am finally a believer in the Terps. I like Maryland at home in a low-scoring game.

#27 Nebraska - 20 @ #22 Texas A&M - 15
Nebraska got back on track last week with a home win against Missouri. Let's see if they can get a key conference win against a Big-12 South opponent. This should be a very good game, I like the Huskers here by less than a touchdown.

#42 South Carolina - 17 @ #10 Florida - 19
I really want to go with the underdog here, but two things have become apparent about these two teams. First, Florida seems to always win ugly. Secondly, South Carolina is good enough to compete, but not good enough to win. Thus, I will go with Florida in a tight one.

#38 Texas Tech - 28 @ #17 Oklahoma - 38
Texas Tech can score, but they have been unimpressive on the road. I like Oklahoma to pull away in the second half.

#15 Tennessee - 27 @ #8 Arkansas - 16
Technically, this is an upset pick by rankings, but I think these two teams are fairly even. If I had to pick a team in my rankings that I feel I may overrated, it is Arkansas. They should be a Top-15 team, but Top-10 maybe a bit high. Nevertheless, that will sort itself out, should Tennessee win. If Arkansas wins, than I guess I was right all along.

#20 Wake Forest - 10 @ #35 Florida State - 17
Another upset pick here as I think Bobby Bowden has lit a fire under the rears of his players. I was really impressed with their dominant performance last week and would not be surprised if the Seminoles win out. Wake Forest is a good team and will keep it close, but I like FSU by a touchdown.

#26 Oregon - 23 @ #9 USC - 45
Some may think this will be close, and it may be at halftime, but USC needs a convincing win against a good team. I see the Trojans turning this game into a blowout in the second half, winning by 3 TD's.

Week 10 Rankings

Tough week for me with my picks as I went 5-5. Even with my five wins, my scores were way off, so I am looking forward to doing a better job next week. As for this weekend's games, I think it's safe to say some teams were looking ahead in their schedules too much (ehem Michigan & Ohio St.)! In the top 25, there were not many drastic changes, other than Wake Forest and Maryland moving up (replacing Clemson and Tulsa). With Louisville's big win, I moved them to 3rd and dropped WVU to 7th. Things got crazy when ranking teams 26-50 as there were some major changes. There were so many upsets of the middle-tier teams that it was quite difficult to rank. Elsewhere, the surging Hawaii Warriors (7-2, 5-1) move up to 32nd in my rankings and have become the first team to accept a bowl invitation. Hawaii will play a "home game" in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve against a Pac-10 team (likely Arizona State).

Top 50 Rankings

1. (1) Ohio State (10-0, 6-0) Won @ Illinois, 17-10
   
2. (2) Michigan (10-0, 6-0) Won vs. Ball State, 34-28
   
3. (4) Louisville (8-0, 3-0) Won vs. West Virginia, 44-34
   
4. (5) Texas (9-1, 6-0) Won vs. Oklahoma State, 36-10
   
5. (6) Auburn (9-1, 5-1) Won vs. Arkansas State, 27-0
   
6. (7) Notre Dame (8-1, 0-0) Won vs. North Carolina, 45-26
   
7. (3) West Virginia (7-1, 2-1) Lost @ Louisville, 44-34
   
8. (9) Arkansas (8-1, 5-0) Won @ South Carolina, 26-20
   
9. (10) USC (7-1, 5-1) Won @ Stanford, 42-0
   
10. (11) Florida (8-1, 6-1) Won @ Vanderbilt, 25-19
    
11. (14) LSU (7-2, 3-2) Won @ Tennessee, 28-24
    
12. (12) California (8-1, 6-0) Won vs. UCLA, 38-24
    
13. (15) Wisconsin (9-1, 6-1) Won vs. Penn State, 13-3
    
14. (13) Rutgers (8-0, 3-0) IDLE
    
15. (8) Tennessee (7-2, 3-2) Lost vs. LSU, 28-24
    
16. (16) Boise State (9-0, 5-0) Won vs. Fresno State, 45-21
    
17. (18) Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2) Won @ Texas A&M, 17-16
    
18. (19) Georgia Tech (7-2, 5-1) Won @ NC State, 31-23
    
19. (20) Virginia Tech (7-2, 4-2) Won @ Miami (FL) 17-10
    
20. (29) Wake Forest (8-1, 4-1) Won vs. Boston College, 21-14
    
21. (17) Boston College (7-2, 3-2) Lost @ Wake Forest, 21-14
    
22. (21) Texas A&M (8-2, 4-2) Lost vs. Oklahoma, 17-16
    
23. (33) Maryland (7-2, 4-1) Won @ Clemson, 13-12
    
24. (24) Oregon State (6-3, 4-2) Won vs. Arizona State, 44-10
    
25. (25) BYU (7-2, 5-0) Won @ Colorado State, 24-3
    

Teams rising up: #20 Wake Forest (+9), #23 Maryland (+10), #29 TCU (+6), #32 Hawaii (+8), #33 Houston (+17), #35 Florida State (+8), #36 South Florida (+15), #38 Texas Tech (+7), #39 Ohio (+7), #40 Western Michigan (+7), #43 Purdue, #44 Navy, #45 Arizona, & #46 Kentucky (+9), #48 Middle Tennessee (+8)

Teams fading: #15 Tennessee (-7), #28 Clemson (-5), #34 Tulsa (-12), #37 Miami, FL (-5), #42 South Carolina (-6), #47 Pittsburgh (-10), #49 Washington State (-15), #50 Alabama (-20)

Put a fork in 'em: The following unranked teams dropped out of my top 50: Arizona State, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Georgia, Washington, Indiana, UCLA (note: all of these teams could still earn bowl berths, but nothing to write home about)

Today's Picks

I hope I can get my remaining 9 picks in before the first game starts at noon...

#33 Maryland -17 @ #23 Clemson -27
Maryland can't be as good as their record is. I like Clemson to bounce back from last week's loss.

#27 Penn State - 13 @ #15 Wisconsin - 28
Sadly, I can not imagine this as a close contest. Sure Penn State shut out Purdue last week, but it was only 12-0! Wisconsin looks like a much better team...this could get ugly.

#28 Missouri - 24 @ #31 Nebraska - 30
Nebraska needs to get back on track and a home win against a team ranked slightly higher than them should do the trick. I like the Huskers here by about a touchdown.

#14 LSU - 13 @ #8 Tennessee - 16
I have been back and forth on who to pick here. Lee Corso is infiltrating my mind about how LSU is the best 2-loss team ever, and maybe so. I just prefer to pick the home team in big SEC games as that seems to work best. Either way, a tight on in Knoxville.

#42 Oklahoma State - 24 @ #5 Texas - 42
Oklahoma State will compete...in the first half. Then Texas runs away with it, winning big.

#18 Oklahoma - 23 @ #21 Texas A&M - 30
Another game I have been back and forth with. The Aggies have continued to impress and surprise many so I will hop on board. College Game Day is at College Station so this would be a big win in Aggieland.

#17 Boston College - 22 @ #29 Wake Forest - 24
Upset #1: But is it really an upset when Wake Forest has a better record? Well B.C. is in the top 25 and Wake is not, so I guess that constitutes as an upset. Should be a very close game but I think Wake wins, vaulting them in the top 25.

#9 Arkansas - 29 @ #36 South Carolina - 31
Huge upset here! South Carolina gets a big win at home over a top 10 team. I personally don't think Arkansas is as good as I have them ranked. Play defense Gamecocks!!

#20 Virginia Tech - 10 @ #32 Miami (FL) - 18
Two thug schools, one ugly game. Hard to believe this is an upset pick. I reluctantly pick Miami.

Whew! 11:56AM, I just barely made it! Hopefully these picks don't suck.

#3 West Virginia @ #4 Louisville

Game of the Year...for now

On paper, I think West Virginia is a better team. My biggest problem with the Mountaineers is that they have yet to play well for all four quarters of a game. They seem to suck in the first half, and dominate the second, or vice versa. If they play that way tonight at Louisville, they will lose.

On the other hand, Louisville has looked mediocre as of late with slim victories against Cincy and Syracuse. Brian Brohm is back but does not look as good as he did before the injury, and Michael Bush is of course, out for the season. Kolby Smith, Bush's replacement, has filled in quite nicely though as he is coming off a career high 165-yard rushing performance against Syracuse with two TD's. If he fails to get 100 yards tonight, West Virginia will win.

However, I think the biggest story tonight will be from the winning team's defense. Neither team's defense is spectacular by any means. But at some point, there will be a big interception return to capitalize the game for the eventual victor. One final point, with the game being played at Papa John Stadium in Louisville, I think that neutralizes the superior talent of West Virginia. Whoever wins, will do so by a touchdown or less. I think this will more likely be decided by a field goal or less.

Prediction
West Virginia-27
Louisville-30

P.S. Louisville MUST contain Steve Slaton to <100 yards. I think they will handle Pat White.

- More predictions for Saturday's games to come on Friday.